shortonsense wrote:Keith_McClary wrote:We just need to ask Mr. OilFinder for a list of "fields yet to be developed" with their expected production by 2013.
Hubbert, in 1956 when he made his prediction of world oil peak in about 2000 at 13 billion barrels a year, calculated that his "fields yet to be found", otherwise known as, "ain't been found", comprised 75% of his total estimate of what the world contained.
In other words, he made up 75% of the volume he used to make his bell shaped curve work. The IEA looks like it is doing something similar to Hubberts tried and true method, with a much smaller % involved. Seems reasonable, considering that we've used quite a bit since Hubberts 1956 paper.
I would think we have a much better handle of how much recoverable oil is left in the ground today than we did a half century ago. You might as well bash astronomy for the fact that we once thought the sun revolved around the earth.