Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

[dorlomin]

So the implicit level of accuracy from the words "maximum" and "minimum" is
hokum. There is clearly no discernable confidence interval for these figures, they are derived from widely different methodologies and many of these discoveries may just be press bluster from factions within countries trying to whipp up a bit of investor interest or companies press departments flapping there lips?

Its just trainspotting*. Fair enough.




*Actualy that is cruelly unfair to trainspotters, they cant count a train as spotted because they have seen a picture of it in the papers.

[dorlomin]

Size of discovery: 6 billion barrels recoverable
Date: July 29, 2009
Company(s): Repsol and PdVSA
Name: Junin 7 block
Location: Orinocco oil sands, Venezuela
API: heavy oil
Flow rate of test well(s): no information
Estimated production startup date: 2012
LINK

So 6 billion of these barrels are Venezuelan heavy oil.

Its not even C&C. And given that peak oil is about flow rate not total volume....

Recoverable running total year to date: 4.546 billion barrels minimum to 9.984 billion barrels maximum

Corrected it for you mate.

[dorlomin]

This next one is interesting. We all know about the Athabasca oil sands, but until I read this today I didn't know there were also oil sands deposits in the Peace River region of Alberta (which is in NW Alberta near the BC border). According to the company website here this area contains an estimated 188 billion barrels.

I have no idea how long they've known about these particular deposits, but they're calling it a discovery, therefore, so shall I.

Size of discovery: 517 million barrels recoverable, out of 1.99 billion barrels OIP.
Date: June 29, 2009
Company(s): Strata Oil
Name: Cadotte
Location: Alberta, Canada
API: Heavy (bitumen)
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: Some in area already in production, this particular project planned to produce 56,000 bpd
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 8.46 billion barrels minimum to 10.826 maximum
OIP running total year to date: 7.505 billion barrels minimum to 9 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Canada Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Additions to White Rose - 40-90 million barrels - 7/06
Paktoa C-60 - 240 million barrels - 10/07
Cadotte - 517 million barrels - 06/09

More tar sands and heavy oil.

Recoverable running total year to date: 4.029 billion barrels minimum to 9.467 billion barrels maximum

[dorlomin]

An appraisal well is going to be drilled on this prospect in September. The resource size range is quite large for now so I'll edit this entry when info on the appraisal well is released. For now it's sort-of a placeholder.

Size of discovery: 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels recoverable
Date: July 9, 2009
Company(s): Tullow, Heritage and a few others
Name: Tweneboa
Location: Offshore Ghana
API: "Light hydrocarbons" in upper zone, 26 API oil in lower zone
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

From the link provided


LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 2.41 billion barrels minimum to 4.743 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 7.505 billion barrels minimum to 9 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Ghana Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Mahogany (later merged with Jubilee) - 300-600 million barrels - 06/06
Addition to Jubilee/Mahogany - 200 million barrels - 06/07
Addition to Jubilee - 1 billion barrels - 07/08
Tweneboa - 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels - 07/09

Well TonyPrep is right!

The Tweneboa-1 exploration well in the Deep Water Tano block (Tullow 49.95%) was completed in March and encountered 21 m (69 ft) of light hydrocarbon bearing sandstones, a deeper independent 4-m (13-ft) oil zone and an over-pressured zone at total depth. The light hydrocarbon accumulation, with P50 oil and gas potential of 250 MMboe and upside potential of 1.4 Bboe,

This is gas that is getting counted as oil. How much of this is drillable oil?

[pstarr]

dorlomin, your "additions" to this list of "discoveries" are valuable. Thanks a heap.

[dorlomin]

Thanks JB.

The recoverable number here is based on the stated recovery factor of 50-70%.

Size of discovery: 1.15 - 2.94 billion barrels recoverable, 2.3 - 4.2 billion barrels OIP
Date: May 6, 2009
Company(s): Heritage Oil
Name: Miran West
Location: Kurdistan, Iraq
API: 27, low sulfur
Flow rate of test well(s): 10,000-15,000 b/d/well
Estimated production startup date: End of 2009
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 1.237 billion barrels minimum to 3.065 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 5.515 billion barrels minimum to 7.01 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Iraq Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Tawke 1 - 100 million barrels - 6/06
Miran West - 1.15 - 2.94 billion barrels recoverable - 5/09

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com ... -7339.html

Even this one seems to have been a touch dissapointing. But as it is actual OIL, Ill let oilgoogler2 off.

[pstarr]

OK, for here on out I offer an open challenge to anyone who thinks this thread is biased, wrong, or whatever: For every discovery I catalog, I challenge you to prove it wrong.

Go ahead, make my day.

No-one needs to prove individual discovery reports wrong. Just wait for data to come out from organisations that are dedicated to this kind of research and see what the totals are. We've already seen that discoveries are no-where near the rosy picture you try to paint. So something is clearly wrong with your catalog though, good on you, you've acknowledged that the 2007 total is way down on what you thought.

I remember when Kashagan was discovered in the Caspian and touted as "black gold" As early as 1998, a Time magazine article pointed out that if the US Energy Department’s estimates of potential Caspian reserves were correct, the region would have to contain “the equivalent of 400 minimum-size giant fields,” or 200 billion barrels of oil. Industry and magazine reports regularly "measured" 30-60 billion. Now we know that the Caspian region in total 9-16 billion. I used to argue with ReserveGrowthRulz(Droolz ) that it is just as reasonable to downgrade initial estimates as to upgrade them. (see Kurwait's admission of reserve growth inflation as an example)

I don't trust the magazine articles.

[OilFinder2]

Recoverable running total year to date: 10.546 billion barrels minimum to 15.984 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 13.484 billion barrels minimum to 14.984 billion barrels maximum

While I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer, I am not a complete idiot either.

How precisely does the maximum recoverable exceed the maximum discovered oil in place?

Why is the minimum recoverable volume about 78% of the minimum oil in place? Are you listing recoverable without oil in place?

I explained this earlier, but perhaps you missed it.

Starting this year, I am keeping recoverable figures totally separate from OIP figures. If a company reports a recoverable number, I put it in the recoverable category. If a company reports an OIP figure, I put it in the OIP category. If they report both, I only use the recoverable number.

[OilFinder2]

So the implicit level of accuracy from the words "maximum" and "minimum" is
hokum. There is clearly no discernable confidence interval for these figures, they are derived from widely different methodologies and many of these discoveries may just be press bluster from factions within countries trying to whipp up a bit of investor interest or companies press departments flapping there lips?

The "minimum" and "maximum" figures result from the fact that many companies report their discoveries as a range of figures - e.g. Oil Field X contains 500 million - 700 million barrels of oil. So, the lower number gets added to the cumulative total for the minimum while the higher number gets added to the cumulative total for the maximum.

[OilFinder2]

So 6 billion of these barrels are Venezuelan heavy oil.

Its not even C&C.

This is a Catalog of Recent Oil discoveries. You yourself just said it is oil. Heavy oil is still crude oil. Thus, it belongs in this catalog.

And given that peak oil is about flow rate not total volume....

If that is true, then how come graphics like this are such a central part of the peak oil litany?

Corrected it for you mate.

Sorry, you lose. You yourself just admitted it was oil.

[OilFinder2]

An appraisal well is going to be drilled on this prospect in September. The resource size range is quite large for now so I'll edit this entry when info on the appraisal well is released. For now it's sort-of a placeholder.

Size of discovery: 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels recoverable
Date: July 9, 2009
Company(s): Tullow, Heritage and a few others
Name: Tweneboa
Location: Offshore Ghana
API: "Light hydrocarbons" in upper zone, 26 API oil in lower zone
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

From the link provided


LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 2.41 billion barrels minimum to 4.743 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 7.505 billion barrels minimum to 9 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Ghana Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Mahogany (later merged with Jubilee) - 300-600 million barrels - 06/06
Addition to Jubilee/Mahogany - 200 million barrels - 06/07
Addition to Jubilee - 1 billion barrels - 07/08
Tweneboa - 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels - 07/09

Well TonyPrep is right!

The Tweneboa-1 exploration well in the Deep Water Tano block (Tullow 49.95%) was completed in March and encountered 21 m (69 ft) of light hydrocarbon bearing sandstones, a deeper independent 4-m (13-ft) oil zone and an over-pressured zone at total depth. The light hydrocarbon accumulation, with P50 oil and gas potential of 250 MMboe and upside potential of 1.4 Bboe,

This is gas that is getting counted as oil. How much of this is drillable oil?

ALL oil fields contain some gas. You're trying to dismiss this discovery just because it happens to say Mmboe. What you failed to do was pay more attention to the listing:

API: "Light hydrocarbons" in upper zone, 26 API oil in lower zone

26 API oil is not natural gas.

You lose again. Sorry.

[OilFinder2]

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/7339/heritage-oil-wraps-up-testing-of-miran-west-1-expects-well-to-produce-up-to-10000-bopd-7339.html

Even this one seems to have been a touch dissapointing. But as it is actual OIL, Ill let oilgoogler2 off.

How is that disappointing??? Your own link says the single well is expected to produce up to 10,000 bpd. That's a damn good well!!

God man you must be desperate today!

[TonyPrep]

And given that peak oil is about flow rate not total volume....

If that is true, then how come graphics like this are such a central part of the peak oil litany?

Think, OF2. Graphs like that are important simply to show that, no matter what the flow rate, discovering less oil that is produced has implications that I'm sure don't need spelling out. Flow rate, of course, ultimately determines the rate of production and so is vitally important in determining when peak might be. Surely you realise that? If you don't, then pointing out that different categories of oil have different flow rates probably doesn't make much sense to you.

[shortonsense]

Flow rate, of course, ultimately determines the rate of production and so is vitally important in determining when peak might be.

I thought flow rate WAS the rate of production?

Or did you mean, when Oily lists a flowrate from a given well, some summation of those then determines the rate of production for like the entire field?

[OilFinder2]

Think, OF2. Graphs like that are important simply to show that, no matter what the flow rate, discovering less oil that is produced . . .

As opposed to less oil that *isn't* produced??

Whatever that was supposed to mean. *shrugs*

. . . has implications that I'm sure don't need spelling out. Flow rate, of course, ultimately determines the rate of production and so is vitally important in determining when peak might be. Surely you realise that?

I thought it would have been obvious I was asking dorlomin why he thought such an important part of the peak oil litany should be, as he said, so unimportant.

If you don't, then pointing out that different categories of oil have different flow rates probably doesn't make much sense to you.

Of course different categories of oil have different flow rates. But a lot of the oil shown discovered on the chart back in days of yore was heavy oil, too. So you don't really have any point here.

[Quinny]

Please Oily, - What is your overall discovered not in production figure?
And how llong will it last at 20 million b/d?

[OilFinder2]

Please Oily, - What is your overall discovered not in production figure?

Some of these have already gone into production, some are about to go into production, and some will go into production in the future. I don't know the percentage. Typically, one does not discover an oil field and start commercial-scale production of it tomorrow, so the question is a bit ridiculous anyway.

And how llong will it last at 20 million b/d?

How long will what last at 20 million b/d?

[Quinny]

The weo report shows 20M b/d from discovered but not in production for many years.

The question and your response highlights the optimism in the weo of being able to suddenly pluck 20m b/d from discoveries. I agree it's not practical, but even if you could, how long would it last?

[TonyPrep]

Flow rate, of course, ultimately determines the rate of production and so is vitally important in determining when peak might be.

I thought flow rate WAS the rate of production?

Yup.

[TonyPrep]

Think, OF2. Graphs like that are important simply to show that, no matter what the flow rate, discovering less oil that is produced . . .

As opposed to less oil that *isn't* produced??

Whatever that was supposed to mean. *shrugs*

Perhaps it never occurred to you that it might be a typo? "that" should have been "than".

. . . has implications that I'm sure don't need spelling out. Flow rate, of course, ultimately determines the rate of production and so is vitally important in determining when peak might be. Surely you realise that?

I thought it would have been obvious I was asking dorlomin why he thought such an important part of the peak oil litany should be, as he said, so unimportant.

Using the corrected typo, I've already given an answer.

Of course different categories of oil have different flow rates. But a lot of the oil shown discovered on the chart back in days of yore was heavy oil, too. So you don't really have any point here.

The point is that oil discoveries are lagging production, possibly by a very large margin (if analyses other than yours are looked at, or by a significant margin if only your reports are looked at), and have been for over 20 years; a clear pointer to peak being in sight. In addition, the aspect of flow rate is an important point since if discovered oil is to replace declines in producing fields (as well as provide growth), then a similar flow rate to those fields in decline had better be possible. Even if 30 billion barrels per year was being discovered and if it could be brought online within a few years, a flow rate below what was trying to be replaced would not actually make up for declines.

So both the amount of oil and the flow rate are important. Two additional aspects are also important, and neither are captured here at all: time to development and net energy return (or EROEI). Indeed, the only aspect that is usually covered here is amount and even that is debatable.