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Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Tue 18 Aug 2009, 09:09:48

With these data, the fuel consumption in each ship class and sub-class was calculated for 2001, including the auxiliary engines. The consumed bunker fuel totaled 281 million tons, of which 191 million tons is heavy fuel oil (HFO), and 90 million tons is diesel oil (MDO) and/or gas oil (MGO).

This total is double the amount of bunker fuel most major international oil companies are willing to accept. There are several possible explanations for this wide gap, one being that part of the cargo carrying ships are in domestic trade and are therefore not part of the "official" international bunker fuel inventory. It is also not quite clear if the fuel consumption by the huge shipping fleet is considered as international bunkers or not.


You can start here. And then track the BDI (SEA the ETF) and crude prices.


they're in lock step.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby billg » Wed 19 Aug 2009, 20:12:07

Baltic Dry Index Has Worst Week Since October as Demand Slows By Alaric Nightingale:
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, had its worst week since October as Chinese demand for shipments of coal and iron ore slowed.

The index tracking transportation costs on international trade routes today slid 135 points, or 4.6 percent, to 2,772 points, according to the Baltic Exchange. That took its weekly drop to 17 percent, the most since the end of October.

“The Chinese have backed off and it’s starting to show in the number of shipments this month,” Gavin Durrell, a Cape Town-based official at Island View Shipping SA, Africa’s biggest commodities shipping line, said by phone today. “Iron ore and coal seem to be slowing down.”
The drop reflects a wider slide in demand for raw materials that will likely push prices for metals, commodities and energy lower, Eugen Weinberg, a senior commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by phone yesterday. The Baltic Dry Index has slumped 35 percent from this year’s high on June 3.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Mon 31 Aug 2009, 10:59:52

Shanghai mirrors the BDI: Down 7.1%
Globalization is dead. You won't hear of back to school sales anymore amd Xmas will be all about food.

DryShips Inc. (NasdaqGS: DRYS)

Real-Time: 5.81 Down 0.31 (5.07%) 11:53am ET

link and link

69.46 11:44AM ET Down 3.28 (4.51%)
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby lowem » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 09:28:25

Ah he**, not again.
Looks like all the markets are trying their best imitation of a 1:1 correlation.

Will this time be any different?
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Tue 01 Sep 2009, 11:09:36

Deflation rears it's ugly head.

And those Chinese Xmas boats should be leaving port
any day now. Wonder how many toys they're bringin to
America? :roll:
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby VZR1800 » Thu 03 Sep 2009, 12:56:01

mcgowanjm wrote:Deflation rears it's ugly head. And those Chinese Xmas boats should be leaving port any day now. Wonder how many toys they're bringin to America? :roll:

Coming to a local Big Box Mart near you, soon? :roll:
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Sun 06 Sep 2009, 11:20:03

BigBoxMart. My HomeTown Store. 8)
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Mon 21 Sep 2009, 11:23:11

The BDI is breaking down.

2356. With nothing between that and the 08 Low of 860
but Chinese Xmas Boats to the US.

Think we'll have enough PlayStations on hand?

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby billg » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 17:53:29

Some photos of freighter backlog...

Collapse of Shipping - Rotterdam Freight Port - Backlog of Ships Oct 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rutfPRhq ... r_embedded
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 18:32:02

mcgowanjm wrote:The BDI is breaking down. 2356. With nothing between that and the 08 Low of 860 but Chinese Xmas Boats to the US. Think we'll have enough PlayStations on hand? link
another Mcgowanmj prediction going bust, BDI on its way up, stores full of PS3's this XMAS :-D link
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Cloud9 » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 19:16:49

Are those ships carrying Xboxes to the U.S. or are they carrying commodities to those parties divesting themselves of dollars?
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby JJ » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 20:37:50

TheAntiDoomer wrote:
mcgowanjm wrote:The BDI is breaking down. 2356. With nothing between that and the 08 Low of 860 but Chinese Xmas Boats to the US. Think we'll have enough PlayStations on hand? link
another Mcgowanmj prediction going bust, BDI on its way up, stores full of PS3's this XMAS :-D link
hey AD, did you post that link by accident? when I opened it, it was all BAD news...(even the articles on the left side of the page)...unless you call bad news good news...
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 13 Oct 2009, 21:32:39

If you look closely you'll see those articles are from the end of sept. the BDI is up almost 20% since then. :-D
JJ wrote:hey AD, did you post that link by accident? when I opened it, it was all BAD news...(even the articles on the left side of the page)...unless you call bad news good news...
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby lowem » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 00:11:42

Cloud9 wrote:Are those ships carrying Xboxes to the U.S. or are they carrying commodities to those parties divesting themselves of dollars?
According to wikipedia, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) consists of :
... 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain."
So it's a measure of shipping rates of some of the more basic commodities that are shipped in bulk as opposed to finished consumer goods.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Cloud9 » Wed 14 Oct 2009, 05:37:38

So I still may not get my Xbox for Christmas. 8O
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Arthur75 » Sat 17 Oct 2009, 16:35:23

lowem wrote:So it's a measure of shipping rates of some of the more basic commodities that are shipped in bulk as opposed to finished consumer goods.
Is there an index that measures more directly shipping activity ? (like the number of tons being shipped/day or months)
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Pops » Sat 17 Oct 2009, 17:04:29

Arthur75 wrote:Is there an index that measures more directly shipping activity ? (like the number of tons being shipped/day or months)
Wiki says BDI is a good leading indicator since it gauges raw materials used in manufacturing.

Here is the container index - lowest since they have compiled records:
HARPEX
HARPEX is the container ship index of the ship brokers Harper Petersen & Co. (GmbH &
Cie. KG). The work of compiling the index was carried out in the year 2004 by staff of
Harper Petersen & Co. and Nordcapital Holding and by Professor Berthold Volk of the
Department of Shipping at the university of applied science Oldenburg/ Ostfriesland/
Wilhelmshaven.
For eight classes of all-container ships, rate changes in the time charter market are
recorded weekly in both nominal and indexed terms. On the basis of the weighted
individual indices, an additional overall index is calculated for the whole of the container
ship market. Using about 10,000 data records, it has also been possible to calculate the
indices retrospectively back to the year 1986.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby the48thronin » Sat 17 Oct 2009, 20:31:24

Pops wrote:Wiki says BDI is a good leading indicator since it gauges raw materials used in manufacturing. Here is the container index - lowest since they have compiled records: HARPEX
HARPEX is the container ship index of the ship brokers Harper Petersen & Co. (GmbH & Cie. KG). The work of compiling the index was carried out in the year 2004 by staff of Harper Petersen & Co. and Nordcapital Holding and by Professor Berthold Volk of the Department of Shipping at the university of applied science Oldenburg/ Ostfriesland/Wilhelmshaven.
For eight classes of all-container ships, rate changes in the time charter market are recorded weekly in both nominal and indexed terms. On the basis of the weighted individual indices, an additional overall index is calculated for the whole of the container ship market. Using about 10,000 data records, it has also been possible to calculate the indices retrospectively back to the year 1986.
Wow using that site looking at class 6,7,8 for the last 10 years, freight rates for containers peaked early 2005 but after rallying a little in early 2008 have fallen off a cliff... So much for recovery in progress. ( oh wait railfax has had a similar pattern for usa shipped containers...
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby Arthur75 » Sun 18 Oct 2009, 02:54:12

Pops wrote:Here is the container index - lowest since they have compiled records:
Wow, impressive ... , but these rates indexes must amplify the shipping volume variations, and apparently difficult to find data directly on shipping volumes. Finding a graph like below for up to now for instance :
Image
It is difficult to quantify the value of volume of world seaborne trade in monetary terms, as figures for trade estimates are traditionally in terms of tonnes or tonne-miles, and are therefore not comparable with monetary-based statistics for the value of the world economy.

However, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that the operation of merchant ships contributes about US$380 billion in freight rates within the global economy, equivalent to about 5% of total world trade.

Shipping trade estimates are often calculated in tonne-miles, as a way of measuring the volume of trade (or "transportation work ", as it is sometimes referred). In 2008, for example, it is estimated that the industry transported over 7.7 thousand million tonnes of cargo, equivalent to a total volume of world trade by sea of over 32 thousand billion tonne-miles.
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Re: Baltic Dry Index Nosedive

Unread postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 27 Oct 2009, 15:32:42

time to bump this "scary" thread. Look like the stores will be packed full of goodies from santa this year!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33492795

These Shipping Stocks Have Room to Run: Maritime Expert

The Baltic Dry Index, a leading economic indicator used by market insiders to gauge gloobal demand for goods, is up 300 percent, quadrupling in value. Does it have more room to run and what does it say about the overall economy? Doug Mavrinac, head of maritime research at Jeffries, shared his insights.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?tic ... &x=15&y=11

The Santas in Asia are picking up the goods to bring to America!

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