THE EEStor Thread (merged)

[mos6507]

I've been following the EESTOR thing closely ever since that meeting recording was leaked. Some of the recent developments include contracting with a company to build the EESU enclosures with the voltage-step-down circuitry for Zenn. Supposedly Zenn should have the first EESUs for internal testing before the end of the year. So I'm really expecting them to take the lid off the subterfuge very soon, or be exposed as a very realistic pump and dump scam, one way or another. But I don't see things festering year upon year anymore.

[BigTex]

I've been following the EESTOR thing closely ever since that meeting recording was leaked. Some of the recent developments include contracting with a company to build the EESU enclosures with the voltage-step-down circuitry for Zenn. Supposedly Zenn should have the first EESUs for internal testing before the end of the year. So I'm really expecting them to take the lid off the subterfuge very soon, or be exposed as a very realistic pump and dump scam, one way or another. But I don't see things festering year upon year anymore.

I'm ready.

[pstarr]

Good one Pstarr.

Wasn't Zenn supposed to come out with an Eestore car by now?

What's the holdup?

http://www.zenncars.com/

It's been the next big deal forever. When is that gall durned tipping point anywho?

[liammcglynn]

The Zenn EEStor solution is a Barite-based ultracapacitor that stores the same energy as Lithium Ion but in one quarter the space. It has rapid charge and discharge capabilities. Barite is important because there are massive stores of it while Lithium is becoming scarce. The ultracapacitor will last for millions of cycles versus the average of only 5,000 for Lithium Ion. Also, it is not subject to deterioration in cold and heat.

EEStor has just submitted its proposed device to Underwriters Laboratories for certification. This is an enormous step toward commercialization.

The highway ZENN will be a five passenger vehicle with a curb weight of around 3,100 pounds. It will have a range of 250 miles and a top speed of 80 mph. The latest word is that we will see it in showrooms in 2010 after an announcement in Fall 2009. The target price for the vehicle is less than $30,000!

Do you think that this will impact the auto industry?

[mos6507]

Zenn is really nothing more than a shell IP company. The highway Zenn will (if it comes out) be nothing but a short-run proof of concept. The true rollout will happen if and when Zenn licenses its drive system to the big players. Zenn will then probably stop producing vehicles and be the dead-weight middle-men that they really are. As it is now, they have produced a tiny number of low speed vehicles.

This weird case of a marginal company being somehow at the right place at the right time to cut a sweetheart deal with EESTOR is what raises suspicions of a pump and dump. I mean, why did Zenn get there first to cut this deal instead of any other company?

But it is what it is.

[liammcglynn]

Zenn is really nothing more than a shell IP company. The highway Zenn will (if it comes out) be nothing but a short-run proof of concept. The true rollout will happen if and when Zenn licenses its drive system to the big players. Zenn will then probably stop producing vehicles and be the dead-weight middle-men that they really are. As it is now, they have produced a tiny number of low speed vehicles.

This weird case of a marginal company being somehow at the right place at the right time to cut a sweetheart deal with EESTOR is what raises suspicions of a pump and dump. I mean, why did Zenn get there first to cut this deal instead of any other company?

But it is what it is.

Valid point. Zenn's founder actually got a call from EEStor's founder, Dick Weir. That does seem an odd route to travel for financing. Their original backers were Kleiner-Perkins who now hold about 20% of the company. They have gotten money from Lockheed Martin and have a contract with Light Electric Vehicles for two and three wheeled EVs.

There is a transcript of a conversation with Dick Weir that reveals more of his motivation.
http://theeestory.com/topics/2529

EEStor seems fixated on developing manufacturing facilities. My understanding of their existing contracts is that they have limited exclusivity. Should EEStor and Zenn succeed, EEStor would be foolish to relinquish control of a company that will grow geometrically. They have figured out how to process Barium Titanate into an ultracapacitor. Others have attempted this for four decades without success. Dick Weir understands his competitive advantage and will use it.

[BigTex]

Dick Weir understands his competitive advantage and will use it.

What remains to be seen is what precisely his competitive advantage is.

I often wonder if Weir's competitive advantage isn't his storytelling ability.

[pstarr]

Dick Weir understands his competitive advantage and will use it.

What remains to be seen is what precisely his competitive advantage is.

I often wonder if Weir's competitive advantage isn't his storytelling ability.

Yes. Grand stories of perpetual energy and black light. Genies in Bottles.

[liammcglynn]

I was hoping that Peak Oil would be a forum for sharing information and meaningful analysis. Refutation without explanation or substantive debate has no value and our communities need value. If you are familiar with Barite ultracapacitor research or EEStor's approach for constructing such a device, please share your insights.

Is this forum just a waste of time? Do you believe that, as a community, you cannot have an impact - that you cannot help others prepare for and survive the looming crisis? EEStor has certainly not inspired our confidence with their repeated delays. And we can question claims of a technological breakthrough in an area that has seen so much research.

However, when a company goes to UL with a product for certification and satisfies a defense contractor with testing, should that not give us pause to consider the possibility that they are genuine? We cannot rule out a grand fraud but rational analysis cannot reach certainty on such criminality.

I mean no offense. I was just hoping for more.

[mos6507]

The only thing EESTOR needs to do to wipe away all of the naysayers is show off a prototype. Even something as simple as a AA size cell that powers a toy would be sufficient. If they can make an assembly line today then surely they must have a working cell in the lab. But no, they won't even show this to anyone including Zenn. Even if they do deliver, there will be no end to the debate for why the hell they had to do this ass-backwards and raise all these doubts.

[liammcglynn]

The most recent third party report by Jacob Securities both supports and refutes your position. In 40 pages of detailed information on EEStor's approach to Barium Titanate capacitors and the four key breakthroughs that distinguish EEStor from other technology processes, the analysts specifically noted that they never saw a commercial prototype.

The absence of a prototype is certainly a concern. Certainly, in order to obtain UL certification, EEStor has to submit at least a small prototype. One would think that this prototype would be available for the JS tour. So why no appearance?

If EEStor is a scam, they are painting themselves in a pretty tight corner. UL will expect a prototype. Zenn expects a commercial component this Fall. A third party has validated the EESU permittivity score of 22,500 (the key factor in capacitor energy density and an extraordinarily high number). Likewise, a third party has validated the purity of EEStor's barium titanate powder.

Still, no prototype. Considering the technological challenges, the more plausible explanation for EEStor's reticence may be the kind of secrecy that many creative types crave during development. Doubtless, there have been many setbacks and, from my own experience as a technology architect, I understand a reluctance to share my failures until the product is ready for prime time.

I recommend looking at the JS report at http://www.theeestory.com/files/ZNN_ini ... acobCo.pdf

Your point is a good one, though.

[pstarr]

I was hoping that Peak Oil would be a forum for sharing information and meaningful analysis. Refutation without explanation or substantive debate has no value and our communities need value. If you are familiar with Barite ultracapacitor research or EEStor's approach for constructing such a device, please share your insights.

Is this forum just a waste of time? Do you believe that, as a community, you cannot have an impact - that you cannot help others prepare for and survive the looming crisis? EEStor has certainly not inspired our confidence with their repeated delays. And we can question claims of a technological breakthrough in an area that has seen so much research.

However, when a company goes to UL with a product for certification and satisfies a defense contractor with testing, should that not give us pause to consider the possibility that they are genuine? We cannot rule out a grand fraud but rational analysis cannot reach certainty on such criminality.

I mean no offense. I was just hoping for more.

Those of us who have been here a while have gotten used to having our hearts broken. Now we are hard, bitter, cynical and probably beyond repair.

Mos, BAU is good. That would be me if I even cared anymore.

[BigTex]

However, when a company goes to UL with a product for certification and satisfies a defense contractor with testing, should that not give us pause to consider the possibility that they are genuine? We cannot rule out a grand fraud but rational analysis cannot reach certainty on such criminality.

I guess I am just tired of pausing to consider much of anything when it comes to pie in the sky claims.

Just show me where the magic battery is and how much it costs to buy one.

You joined the forum less than a week ago. I started this thread three years ago. Your sense of skepticism in these matters may not yet be fully developed.

[liammcglynn]

Those of us who have been here a while have gotten used to having our hearts broken. Now we are hard, bitter, cynical and probably beyond repair.

Mos, BAU is good. That would be me if I even cared anymore.[/quote]

If you have been here a while, you have valuable information, useful information. As a technology architect, I gather and form data into compelling executive presentations. In a sense, that is just another type of forum with its own set of frustrations and obstacles. Even when I succeed in saving a company many millions of dollars, I might have to watch helplessly as the corporation collapses under the weight of toxic investments.

I know that we cannot stop or even slow the coming oil crisis and the unfathomable impact on the global food supply but I, like you, need an outlet for my frustration. Perhaps it doesn't matter if we say anything meaningful. After all, who is really listening? Still, I have my own plan, feeble as it is, to meet the coming crisis. Surely, in such a forum, I am not unique. We all have plans and all our individual plans are likewise feeble because they are individual. This may not be a forum for fostering communal efforts but our collective knowledge may open doors.

Your self-effacement indicates that you are not entirely resigned to apathy. I suspect that you are just a fighter in an empty ring.

[pstarr]

Those of us who have been here a while have gotten used to having our hearts broken. Now we are hard, bitter, cynical and probably beyond repair.

Mos, BAU is good. That would be me if I even cared anymore.

If you have been here a while, you have valuable information, useful information. As a technology architect, I gather and form data into compelling executive presentations. In a sense, that is just another type of forum with its own set of frustrations and obstacles. Even when I succeed in saving a company many millions of dollars, I might have to watch helplessly as the corporation collapses under the weight of toxic investments.

As an peak-aware energy architect you must appreciate that these executives are working under completely different assumptions than I am. They assume BAU growth-dependent economic/business model that expects current debt paid to be back with future increased energy/financial income. This will not be.

You also perhaps expect post-peak alternative energy systems and living arrangements (less dependent on fossil fuels) to arrive post-peak that are not already in place. Impossible. How can we run run the current cheap-energy dependent infrastructure, and also build out the post-peak infrastructure in a post-peak world? We do not have the energy to do both.

I know that we cannot stop or even slow the coming oil crisis and the unfathomable impact on the global food supply but I, like you, need an outlet for my frustration. Perhaps it doesn't matter if we say anything meaningful. After all, who is really listening? Still, I have my own plan, feeble as it is, to meet the coming crisis. Surely, in such a forum, I am not unique. We all have plans and all our individual plans are likewise feeble because they are individual. This may not be a forum for fostering communal efforts but our collective knowledge may open doors.

Your self-effacement indicates that you are not entirely resigned to apathy. I suspect that you are just a fighter in an empty ring.

I am not apathetic for myself at all. Look at my location. I have done my own homework and preparations.

[mos6507]

pstarr, your tone has changed considerably from when I left. I think you should leave a little more variability in your vision of the future. If there is anything the last year has taught me, is not to be too certain of how things are going to play out.

[liammcglynn]

pstarr, I am a technology architect specializing in the automation of large data centers. I am also a closet economist so your point about false assumptions in predictive models is timely. The government's GAAP budget report reveals a national debt (unfunded obligations) of more than $60 trillion. You are right, we cannot repay. The economic situation relates to EEStor and EVs in general because hyperinflation seems a near certainty in the not too distant future and a currency collapse would precipitate a supply disruption. This disruption would be a temporary but devastating fuel crisis in the US. Thus, my desire for an EV with decent range and highway capabilities.

Hyperinflation is an interesting topic though probably not appropriate for this forum. It may actually hasten the longer term oil crisis.

[JRP3]

You are right, we cannot repay. The economic situation relates to EEStor and EVs in general because hyperinflation seems a near certainty in the not too distant future and a currency collapse would precipitate a supply disruption. This disruption would be a temporary but devastating fuel crisis in the US. Thus, my desire for an EV with decent range and highway capabilities.

Think you'll be doing a lot of traveling during an economic collapse?

[pstarr]

pstarr, your tone has changed considerably from when I left. I think you should leave a little more variability in your vision of the future. If there is anything the last year has taught me, is not to be too certain of how things are going to play out.

Mos, I have always bridged the gap between Ludditism and Techtopianism. I was a computer programmer before i became involved in the organic food industry and got a Masters degree in Sustainable Systems. That is why I have been a bit of an enigma here.

Now I am firmly on the Doomer side. I do not see any transport technology (alternative ICE or EV) that can give us the range, convenience, and mobility of cheap-oil powered autos. Given that this economy is basically shopping and house construction-based (70% of employment is retail and a lot of the rest used to be construction related) this shortcoming is life and death. Most of what makes this society function has to do with products and people shuttling around in circles.

[liammcglynn]

pstarr, I work for a large international firm based in New Delhi whose net income grew 110% last quarter (compared to 2008). I am less concerned about recession stopping travel than I am about a disruption in oil deliveries to domestic refineries. I can picture such a disruption if inflation spirals out of control and I can picture hyperinflation if the government continues its bailout policies in 2010. Option ARMs and Alt-A mortgages will reach a peak in resets in Mid 2010 that will rival the subprime crisis except that we are less prepared now (unemployment, tight credit, weak banks, credit card defaults, and diminished demand for Treasuries).

I guess that as long as planes are flying, I will travel. If the government had to ration fuel, where do commercial airlines stand in the queue?