And, if you can't raise production over a 3 year period when prices spike to all time highs, then, it seems manifest, you really don't have a 'reserve' capacity at all. What you have is good intentions.
This is rather silly and shows a complete lack of knowledge about the oil industry in general.
It's very simple.
OPEC (and other cornus) keep saying that they have "reserve" production capacity or "extra" production capacity of several million barrels per day.
Well, how is that defined?
If it's defined as "it'll take more than 3 years to get out of the ground," then that makes my point - it's not a reserve at all - it's a potential expansion in the distant future.
Folks keep saying, "it's not a valve you turn on."
Ok. I buy it. But then lets stop calling it "spare capacity."
If you can't bring it on line within 3 years, then it's not "spare" at all. It's like having a "spare tire" that takes a week to get to your car after you get a flat. What the hell good is it, and is it really "spare" at all?
There are two things working against the notion of "spare" capacity.
First - if you're calling your 3 year and out efforts to produce oil "spare," then are you factoring in your losses between now and then?
Obviously, if you could just turn on the tap and kick out another 1MBD we'd all agree - yep, that's spare right thare.
But if we have to wait 3 whole years for you to turn it on, then don't we have to factor in decline rates across OPEC?
And if OPEC is going to lose 3 million barrels a day of production in the next 3 years and the KSA says they are able to produce 3MBD more, but not for 3 years, then isn't it delusional to say that there is some kind of spare capacity there?
As for people looking to "oil insiders" for guidance.
Call them your experts wherever you will find them.
As near as I can tell, most people on the inside of the oil industry are very happy to either be ignorant about Peak Oil or deny that it's an issue - the fact that they know various tid bits about drilling or such is meaningless to me.
It's really very simple -
there is little or no transparency with OPEC. Nobody on this board knows jack squat about true production capacity.
I'd say that puts us on equal factual footing.
My analysis is simple - the KSA is lying about "reserve capacity" and all the new projects are all overblown horsesh-it until they put up the numbers.
If you don't agree with that, prove it wrong.
Oh wait, you can't. Even if you are an "oil insider" with a "job in the oil industry."
Final note. When I first came across PO in 05, the first douche in the oil industry with whom I spoke assured me I was being paranoid and that there was enough oil on the "continental shelf" off of California for several hundred years.
June 5, 09. Taking a powder for at least a while - big change of life coming up.
We're saved! YesPlease promises that we'll be running cars on battery cubes about the size of a toaster.