Turkmenistan May Hold Massive Oil Resources

[Maddog78]

Good job OilFinder2, if people don't want to hear your findings and/or opinion, it's because they can't stand the possibility of being wrong.

The guy is nothing but a shill for big oil.

So ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips, SaudiAramco, etc. all get together and decide to pay a guy to post up recent discoveries on peakoil.com?

OF2, you are busted. Not.

[bl00k]

Good job OilFinder2, if people don't want to hear your findings and/or opinion, it's because they can't stand the possibility of being wrong.

Wake us up when there´s an increase in production, of all this wonderful findings that "may", "could", "might" and "would" have lots and lots of oil.
World Oil Production Peaked in 2008

World oil production peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels/day (mbd) shown in the chart below. This oil definition includes crude oil, lease condensate, oil sands and natural gas plant liquids. If natural gas plant liquids are excluded, then the production peak remains in 2008 but at 73.79 mbd. However, if oil sands are also excluded then crude oil and lease condensate production peaked in 2005 at 72.75 mbd.

http://www.inteldaily.com/news/154/ARTICLE/10096/2009-03-18.html

The problem here isn't about who is right or wrong, it's about how a discussion is done in a proper way. I don't see OilFinder2 blurting out crap we all hear on the 24-hour news-channels, he's actually providing sources for what he posts, a rare phenomenon in most discussions.

At first when i found out about peak oil i was convinced of it's truthness, so to speak. But the more i found out, the more i realized i know very, very little. It's still true that oil forms over millions of years and we burn it way faster than it can form, but there still has to be some restraint in predicting the future.

To put it in a broader sense: there is so much doubt that i think we should all be a little bit more cautious about subjects as peak oil and it's impact on society, even though the fundamentals are sound, they always have been. The amount of factors playing a role is too much for anyone to know, let alone understand the connections between these.

At least we should not try to ridicule a certain person actually providing reliable (? ) data about new oil production and such.

But yeah, oil will run out, some day...

[vision-master]

Denial

[bl00k]

Denial

It's not denial, it's caution. I've made my peace with the oil peak long ago, it's not like i have a choice. But to convincingly say i KNOW what is going to happen (oil-production-wise on the short term and society-wise) is ludicrous, because i don't, and neither do you.

[OilFinder2]

Looks like someone's already starting to develop some of these fields.

>>> LINK <<<

Dragon Oil completes another Dzheitune production well
6/4/2009 12:40:06 PM GMT

SHGABAT, TURKMENISTAN: Dragon Oil Plc successfully completed the drilling and initial testing of the Dzheitune (Lam) 28/134 development well in the Caspian Sea. The well is offshore Turkmenistan in the Cheleken contract area, which covers approximately 367 square miles (950 sq km).

National Iranian Drilling Corp. jackup Iran Khazar drilled the well to a depth of 10,761 feet (3,280 m). Initial testing of the long and short strings resulted in production rates of 2,685 b/d of oil and 869 b/d, respectively, for an combined tested rate of 3,554 b/d. Further testing and optimization are scheduled to take place over the coming weeks.

The Dzheitune (Lam) 28/134 development well is the second well to be completed from the refurbished Dzheitune (Lam) 28 platform. Iran Khazar has now skidded to spud the Dzheitune (Lam) 28/136 development well.

Meanwhile, the platform-based Rig 40 is currently drilling the Dzheitune (Lam) 13/135 development well.

Dragon Oil CEO Dr. Abdul Jaleel Al Khalifa said, "While the current production rate is approximately 43,500 b/d due to the slow start to the drilling program this year, we, nevertheless, remain focused on meeting our annual production growth forecast for 2009."

[OilFinder2]

Might as well turn this into a Turkmenistan thread.

>>> Bloomberg <<<

Turkmenistan’s Proved Natural Gas Reserves Triple
By Ben Farey

June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Turkmenistan’s proved reserves of natural gas tripled last year, taking it to fourth place in the world above Saudi Arabia, according to BP Plc.

Turkmen gas reserves stood at 7.94 trillion cubic meters, up from 2.43 trillion cubic meters the previous year, BP said in its annual Statistical Review of World Energy, published today. Russia, Iran and Qatar are the three largest holders of gas reserves.

Gas importers are competing for supplies from Turkmenistan, whose gas exports have been halted almost completely following an April explosion on the main pipeline to Russia. A new link is being built to China and the European Union wants a pipeline crossing the Caspian to bring gas into Europe avoiding Russia.

Turkmenistan’s recently discovered South Yolotan-Osman field is a “super giant” and one of the world’s largest undeveloped deposits, the company commissioned to survey the country’s reserves said in February.

The field is 75 kilometers (47 miles) long and 35 kilometers wide, has a gas column of 500 meters and is likely to hold 6 trillion cubic meters of gas, Jim Gillett, business development manager at London-based Gaffney Cline & Associates Ltd., said.

[...]

[TheDude]

So my take is that 311.85 - 1.75 trillion barrels is more likely someone possessed by the spirit of Saparmurat Niyazov.

First of all, that basin isn't the entire nation. Second, USGS assessments are hardly gospel, as they themselves would admit to you. The Bakken assessment which came out last year, for example, showed a 25-fold increase in the amount of technically-recoverable oil compared to their 1995 assessment. [/quote]

And you were the one who was spazzing out about Price's estimates of north of 500 bbo recoverable. That sure didn't work out the way you wanted it to.

Turkmen reserves are effectively neglible in the broader scheme of Europe+Asia in the BP Review, moving up from "n/a" in 1998 to a whopping .6 bbo in 2007/2008. Rhapsodizing about this just chews up bandwidth, you'd as well have one macro Small Fry thread covering these munchkins. This includes such Buy Nows as Italy and Romania, who have about the same P1 as the Turkmen.

Or how about just linking to RSS for Rigzone's front page, and spare yourself the exertion of all that typing, especially those goofy little >>>>>>s? Or a thread for escape velocity reserves growth assertions like this, which may prove wholly without basis in the end, have no immediate impact on flow rates which is the real issue of peak oil, may prove valuable only as base comedy in the case of Kashagan, &c.

[OilFinder2]

And you were the one who was spazzing out about Price's estimates of north of 500 bbo recoverable.

Price never said that 500 bbo was a recoverable figure, and neither did I. Check through the Bakken thread if you don't believe me.

As for the rest of your comment, at one point in time around the 1930's or 1940's the CEO of Shell responded to a letter from one of the princes or kings of Saudi Arabia, in which the prince asked him if he was interested in prospecting for oil in his nation. The CEO of Shell replied by saying Thank you for the offer, but we aren't interested because we don't believe there is much oil in your nation.

Wait before you scoff.

Turkmen reserves are effectively neglible in the broader scheme of Europe+Asia in the BP Review, moving up from "n/a" in 1998 to a whopping .6 bbo in 2007/2008.

At one point in time, the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia were about 6 billion barrels. It was not that long ago that they didn't think there was much oil in Brazil. And so on, and so forth.

The current status of someone's proven reserves mean nothing.

[Kez]

The problem here isn't about who is right or wrong, it's about how a discussion is done in a proper way. I don't see OilFinder2 blurting out crap we all hear on the 24-hour news-channels, he's actually providing sources for what he posts, a rare phenomenon in most discussions.

At first when i found out about peak oil i was convinced of it's truthness, so to speak. But the more i found out, the more i realized i know very, very little. It's still true that oil forms over millions of years and we burn it way faster than it can form, but there still has to be some restraint in predicting the future.

To put it in a broader sense: there is so much doubt that i think we should all be a little bit more cautious about subjects as peak oil and it's impact on society, even though the fundamentals are sound, they always have been. The amount of factors playing a role is too much for anyone to know, let alone understand the connections between these.

At least we should not try to ridicule a certain person actually providing reliable (? ) data about new oil production and such.

But yeah, oil will run out, some day...

Yes we should be cautious, but it's hard to say everything's fine when looking at historic events over several years, like the declines of U.S. production, the North Sea, and Cantarell. It would be fine if there were new fields of comparable size coming online, but there aren't. When you combine that with more humans becoming more dependent on oil every day, it spells trouble. It would be nice if people stopped driving and flying all over creation, but they aren't, and instead there's more people every day wanting capers shipped from Spain 10,000 miles away and Apples from Washington shipped 4,000 miles.

[Jotapay]

Turkmenistan May Hold Massive Oil Resources

This sounds like a job for the Marines! They need Freedom!

[dorlomin]

As I look at Turkmenistan on a map, it makes me wonder if the entire Caspian Sea basin is some sort of giant hydrocarbon trap.

Explain the geology of this. Tell me where the source rock is, how it migrated what cap rock you have discovered and what mechanism exists for this to act in this manner.


Personaly I think you havent a clue what you are talking about and this is another steaming pile of crap.

[Jotapay]

As I look at Turkmenistan on a map, it makes me wonder if the entire Caspian Sea basin is some sort of giant hydrocarbon trap.

Explain the geology of this. Tell me where the source rock is, how it migrated what cap rock you have discovered and what mechanism exists for this to act in this manner.


Personaly I think you havent a clue what you are talking about and this is another steaming pile of crap.

Yeah. The current Caspian Sea morphology has nothing to do with underlying geology and depositional environments dozens to hundreds of millions of years ago.

Looks like there might be some slick stuff down there though:
http://www.gravmag.com/turkmen.html

Deploy the Marines and international bankers, stat.

[OilFinder2]

>>> Breaking news from UPI <<<

Turkmenistan sees oil and gas boom
Published: June 11, 2009

ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan, June 11 (UPI) -- Turkmenistan is set for a major oil and gas boom by 2030 given appropriate foreign investments in offshore fields in the Caspian Sea, officials say.

Turkmenistan joined its Caspian partners in backing an ambitious plan to develop the Caspian Sea shelf. Ashgabat says its gas production could reach 8.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 806 million barrels of oil per year by 2030 if investors come forward, the Trend news agency reports.

The report says Turkmenistan produces 2.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 73 million barrels of oil currently.

Turkmenistan says its needs around $10 billion in direct investments in its energy sector to reach its full potential. Around $4 billion is slated for 2009 projects, up from $2.3 billion in 2008 and $900 million in 2007.

[...]

806 million barrels per year translates into about 2.2 million bpd. Not bad. If they discover more maybe that'll go up.

[OilFinder2]

Just for the heck of it, here are the oil discoveries I've cataloged in the Caspian Sea the last 3 years.

Size of discovery: 600 million barrels
Date: January 26, 2006
Company(s): Lukoil
Name: Filanovsky
Location: Russian Caspian Sea
API: unknown
Flow rate of test well(s): unknown
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 3.8 billion barrels
Date: May 29, 2008
Company(s): Gazprom and Lukoil
Name: Tsentralnaya
Location: Russian Caspian Sea
API: No information given
Flow rate of test well(s): No information given
Estimated production startup date: No information given
LINK

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 110 - 450 million barrels recoverable
Date: October 9, 2008
Company(s): Lundin Petroleum and Gazprom
Name: Morskaya structure
Location: Caspian Sea, Russia
API: 32
Flow rate of test well(s): 2500 bpd
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK

------------------------------------

Then of course there is the 9-16 billion barrel Kashagan discovered in 2000 to the north.

[TheDude]

Turkmenistan could have some 200-250 billion metric tons of oil equivalent

Again you mix apples and oranges to come up with peaches. Turkmenistan's focus in recent years has been on gas, not oil, and they've never topped 203 kb/d - in 2003, after which production dipped downwards, a strange thing in a country which is supposedly bursting at the seams with "large fields." And, again, you salivate at these pronouncements from government/corporate officials that have precisely nothing backing them up other than what is dispensed in press releases and pass on their figures as indisputable fact.

Most of Turkmenistan's oil is extracted from fields at Koturdepe, Nebitdag, and Chekelen near the Caspian Sea, which have a combined estimated reserve of 700 million tons. The oil extraction industry started with the exploitation of the fields in Chekelen in 1909 and Nebitdag in the 1930s, then production leaped ahead with the discovery of the Kumdag field in 1948 and the Koturdepe field in 1959. All the oil produced in Turkmenistan is refined in Turkmenbashy.

Oil production reached peaks of 14,430,000 tons in 1970 and 15,725,000 tons in 1974, compared with 5,400,000 tons in 1991. Since the years of peak production, general neglect of the oil industry in favor of the gas industry has led to equipment depreciation, lack of well repairs, and exhaustion of deposits for which platforms have been drilled.

From 1996: Turkmenistan - Industry. Would check EIA but the International section's on the fritz lately. Nothing listed at all in the Megaprojects Wiki. Even South Africa and Papua New Guinea have some action going on.

[OilFinder2]

You are correct, that should be pointed out. I have absolutely no doubt that much of these vast "barrels of oil" are actually boe-equivalents of natural gas. What % is oil, and what % is gas, time will tell.

As for the lack of things listed in the megaprojects Wiki, if you browse through the articles posted here (e.g. "Turkmenistan is set for a major oil and gas boom by 2030 given appropriate foreign investments in offshore fields in the Caspian Sea, officials say."), it should be clear that this is all brand-spanking-new. IIRC Turkmenistan was under a not-so-nice dictator until 2004 who neglected things like this. It will take several years of exploration for concrete projects to start materializing.

And, again, you salivate at these pronouncements from government/corporate officials that have precisely nothing backing them up other than what is dispensed in press releases and pass on their figures as indisputable fact

The guy who stated the figures in the opening article is the head of a geologic institute in Turkmenistan. I would assume he has a reasonable idea of what he's talking about.

[OilFinder2]

>>> Reuters <<<

Turkmens say to increase gas supplies to China
Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:23pm EDT

ASHGABAT, June 24 (Reuters) - Turkmenistan has agreed to increase the amount of gas it will supply to China to 40 billion cubic metres (bcm) from 30bcm every year, Turkmen state television said on Wednesday.

The two countries also signed a contract under which China would issue Turkmenistan a $4 billion loan.

Turkmen TV gave no further details during a visit by a Chinese government delegation.

Earlier this month, Turkmen TV said that China promised to issue Turkmenistan a $3 billion loan to explore the large gas field South Iolotan. [ID:nL5208945]

In 2006, Turkmenistan agreed to deliver to China 30bcm of gas annually through a pipeline to be commissioned this year which is currently being built.

[...]

[Mike Morin]

This is not news!

The Soviets discovered those resources decades ago.

Why do you think that the USA has had an increasing military presence in Afghanistan since 2001? Why do you think "Obama" has just launched a massive military offensive in Afghanistan? Why do you think that the USA supported the Taliban to drive the USSR out of the region? Why do you think that the USA has pandered to military dictatorships in Pakistan for decades?

Because, the multi-national oil interests want to build pipelines through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Arabian Sea.

Training grounds for terrorists... Yeah, right.

[OilFinder2]

Well, at least you're the first person in this thread who doesn't dispute the conclusion of the opening article.

As for exports to the US, I would think a far easier (logistically and politically) route to export Turkmen oil to the US would be via ship over the Caspian Sea, then via one of those SW Russian pipelines north of the Caucasus, then via ship through the Black Sea. As difficult as the Russians can be to deal with at times, they're a heckuva lot easier to deal with than some warring tribes in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

[Mike Morin]

Well, at least you're the first person in this thread who doesn't dispute the conclusion of the opening article.

As for exports to the US, I would think a far easier (logistically and politically) route to export Turkmen oil to the US would be via ship over the Caspian Sea, then via one of those SW Russian pipelines north of the Caucasus, then via ship through the Black Sea. As difficult as the Russians can be to deal with at times, they're a heckuva lot easier to deal with than some warring tribes in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Nah, think of the Halliburton revenues to build those pipelines. Think of the revenues from the wars. Think of all those extant tankers already cruising the Arabian Sea. Think of all those revenues building a terminal on the coast of W. Pakistan.

Think of all those future Memorial Days and Fourths of Julys and of course, don't underestimate the importance of retail sales for the Holiday Season.

Remember Christ died for you, and he wasn't the only one...


MM