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NEW YORK, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The global economy may be deteriorating even faster than it did during the Great Depression, Paul Volcker, a top advisder to President Barack Obama, said on Friday.
"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker said.
OilFinder2 wrote:Haha! The IMF price prediction is looking pretty good!
yeahbut wrote:OilFinder2 wrote:Haha! The IMF price prediction is looking pretty good!
Yes, and last year it looked terrible, who knows how it will look in 2012, or in the actual year of their prediction.
yeahbut wrote:Already they failed to foresee extreme price volatility, which many here called. Cherry picking prices at this moment in time is both petty and irrelevant.
sulayman wrote:I asked the FT about this, and they said in reply....Dear Sir,
the figure is right.
IMF is forecasting $34 in real terms in 2010, that would traslate in money
of 2010, that is, nominal terms (if we assume inflation rising yearly at 3
per cent) of a price about $45. The forecast for 2030 is $39-$56, that
would traslate in nominal terms: $80-$120.
In any case, IMF is talking about a "permanent oil shock" as if we look
back, oil prices between 1990 and 2000 were, on average, below $20 in
nominal and real terms. And no other international body has talked, at
least in public, of prices soo high.
bobbyald wrote:wow, are they rich?
No, far from it and that's the problem of course.
If people wont give up their cars even when it begins to hurt we are in for one hell of a jump in prices.
In Europe even at $34 gallon if people cut consumption by 50% then their cost has "only" doubled and people will do this rather than give up their car.
kiwichick wrote:the position is much worse than 1930's
1 no credit cards in 30's
2 no cell phone or cable tv bills in 1930's
3 very few people owned cars , another huge cost
4 energy much cheaper, oil companies making massive profits
5human pop unsustainable now
6global overheating huge timebomb
7 real wages failing
GM’s demise should not be read as a harbinger of doom for the car industry. All around the world people want wheels: a car tends to be the first big purchase a family makes once its income rises much above $5,000 a year, in purchasing-power terms. At the same time as people in developing countries are getting richer, more efficient factories and better designs are making cars more affordable. That is why the IMF forecasts that the world will have nearly 3 billion cars in 2050, compared with around 700m cars today. In the next five or six years the Chinese will overtake the Americans in terms of annual car sales: in 40 years’ time the Chinese will have almost as many cars as exist in the whole of the world now. Indeed, GM’s own experience abroad shows the promise of emerging markets. Brazil has long been a source of profits, and GM has a leading position in China.
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