THE EIA Thread pt 2 (merged)

[outcast]

For nuclear I think their projection is far too low, the UK is rethinking its position for fission electricity production and the other western european countries are also giving it a hard second look in the light of climate change and convienience.

Not to mention China and (to a lesser extent) India pushing nuclear hard.

[cephalotus]

These statistics are global as far as I can tell, but don't make sense - There's so much more nuclear being built already around the world.

Can anyone help make sense of this?

really?

most of the currently operating nuclear plants have been built decades ago and will not be operating in 2030.
As an example, Germany one of the larger producers of nuclear power will shut down all its plants by 2021 without rebuilding new ones.

So the planned (planned =!= built! btw) new nuclear power plants are not even enough to replace all of those that have to be shut down, you would need more of them to raise absolute power created by nukes.
You need even more to raise the share of nuclear in a world with growing energy needs.

The world uses more energy from wood than from uran and I doubt that this will change in 2030.

[aahala2]

EIA says that there won't be much increase in nuclear. This seems inconsistent of my understanding of FF availability.

Looking at the following page: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html

and look at the graph "World marketed energy use by fuel 1980-2030"
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/images/ ... 2small.jpg

These statistics are global as far as I can tell, but don't make sense - There's so much more nuclear being built already around the world.

Where? The BP website, a company that has no dog in this
issue, states that in capacity terms, new wind installation has
exceeded new nuclear by a healthy margin each of the last
8 or 9 years and in the last year of the reference(2007), wind
lapped nuclear by factor of approximately 10.

The above is in absolute, not relative terms, which makes
your claim of big nuclear growth even more inconsistent with
the site's claims.

[joewp]

New IPM is out showing production data through November. The peak of May, 2008 remains, and it seems that it could well be the all-time peak as this recession/depression is deepening and oil projects are being canceled all over the world even as production from old fields is declining.

The plateau lingers on, but for how long?

[OilFinder2]

>>> LINK <<<

EIA raises global oil demand decline forecast
Nick Snow
OGJ Washington Editor

WASHINGTON, DC, Feb. 11 -- Global petroleum demand will fall by another 400,000 b/d during 2009 as economic conditions worsen, the US Energy Information Administration said on Feb. 10 in its latest short-term energy outlook.

EIA now projects that worldwide oil consumption will drop by 1.2 million b/d this year as a deteriorating world economy and a weak oil consumption outlook keep the market well supplied despite two downward revisions in the last 2 months by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Reduced demand and rising surplus production capacity through at least mid-2009 reduce the possibility for a strong and sustained oil price rebound over that period, the federal energy analysis and forecasting service said.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

Now it's even less.

>>> Link <<<

EIA lowers oil demand forecast in latest short-term outlook
By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Mar 10 -- In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration has lowered its projections for oil demand in 2009-10 as the global economic contraction continues to depress energy demand.

EIA now expects US real gross domestic product (GDP) to decline 2.8% in 2009, leading to a reduction in energy consumption for all major fuels. EIA forecasts that an economic rebound will begin in 2010, with 1.9% year-over-year growth in US real GDP.

Average annual world oil consumption is projected to decline almost 1.4 million b/d in 2009, with consumption in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries falling 1.6 million b/d. This expected decline is 200,000 b/d larger than in last month's STEO, reflecting lower expectations of global economic activity this year.

EIA assumes that worldwide GDP growth will decline 0.8% this year, followed by growth of 2.6% in 2010, compared with last month's assumption of a 0.1% decline this year and 3% growth next year.

EIA forecasts that the global economic slowdown will cut the price of West Texas Intermediate crude by more than half from last year's $100/bbl average. EIA expects WTI to average $42/bbl in 2009, and $53/bbl in 2010. These price forecasts are slightly lower than in the previous STEO.

[...]

[TonyPrep]

The latest STEO has some revisions but is still showing a significant gap between consumption and production, with consumption having been 3.44 mbpd, 1.51 mbpd and 2.83 mbpd above consumption, in the last 3 months.

From a quick scan, every month in 2007 saw stock draws and, since then, stock draws look to easily have the edge on stock builds, if totalled up.

[joewp]

Here's some charts based on the data in the International Petroleum Monthly just released last week. The data is through December, 2008 so we can get quarterly and yearly averages as well as the monthly.

First, the monthly. Apparently July, 2008 is holding it's own as the top month of oil production by about 500,000b/d over May, 2005.


Now the quarterly averages. The second quarter of 2005 holds its record as the most prolific quarter of oil production in world history 74,061 to 1q2008's 74,048


The plateau holds. I still think it's amazing that for 4 years world oil production has remained on a plateau within about 1 1/2 million barrels a day, even in the face of an incredible price rise.

And the yearly averages. 2008 seems to be the winner so far, pending further revised stats. Still not very impressive in the face of $100+ oil.

[OilFinder2]

>>> LINK <<<

World 2009 oil demand seen lowest since 2004 - EIA
Wed May 13, 2009 12:21am IST
By Ayesha Rascoe

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite rising optimism about the economy, the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday again slashed its forecast for 2009 world oil demand, lowering its estimate by 420,000 barrels per day to 83.67 million bpd, which would be the lowest level in five years.

The EIA said it expects world oil demand to fall by 1.8 million bpd this year from 2008's levels as consumption remains weak because of the global economic downturn.

Its projection would place global oil consumption at the lowest level since demand was 82.41 million bpd in 2004.

With crude oil prices up to around $60 a barrel due to some positive economic indicators, many energy analysts and traders were anticipating that the EIA would not make another major cut in its oil demand forecast.

The agency said, however, that "expectations of global economic recovery and a resultant increase in demand were offset by initial data for the first quarter showing high oil inventories, weak consumption, and higher-than-expected production."

The EIA has cut its estimate for 2009 global oil demand in 13 of its last 16 monthly forecasts.

[...]

[Graeme]

US EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44% Between 2006 and 2030, CO2 Emissions Up by 39%

World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44% between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world, according to the reference case projection from the International Energy Outlook 2009 (IEO2009) released today by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

World carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 29.0 billion metric tons in 2006 to 33.1 billion metric tons in 2015 and 40.4 billion metric tons in 2030—an increase of 39% over the projection period. The IEO2009 reference case does not include specific policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/05/ieo2009-20090527.html#more

[newman1979]

BIG NEWS, 2005 is still the peak year. Crude oil production peaked in 2005!

Hear that Robert Rapier? The EIA International Petroleum Monthly is just out with revisions. Oil Production. Click on spreadsheet 4.d. The figures are average production for the entire year in thousands of barrels per day.

2005 73,728
2006 73,446
2007 72,989
2008 73,709
2009 71,847 First five months average.

Actually I am not too excited about this because I have always maintained that the peak plateau was 2005 thru 2008. Actually it is mid 2004 thru mid 2008. The peak month is still July of 2008.
Ron P.

[new] westexas on August 12, 2009 - 2:58pm
I suspect that the current decline in demand is masking an accelerating decline rate in production. Based on the HL models, world conventional production in 2005 was at about the same stage of depletion as the US Lower 48 in 1970 and as the North Sea in 1999. And the initial three year declines in the Lower 48 and North Sea were quite low, then accelerating in the fourth year.

60 months of data is conclusive IMO

[dunewalker]

Newman, can you post the annual production rate (bpd)for all the years from 2000 through 2004?

[newman1979]

1997 65,744,000
1998 66,966,000
1999 65,922,000
2000 68,495,000
2001 68,099,000
2002 67,158,000
2003 69,433,000
2004 72,481,000
Presently we are running at a rate that is similar to 2004.

[cipi604]

Very good info. Thanks

[Cyrus]

Oilfinder2 care to step in and try to debate this?

[eastbay]

Like many of us have been saying all along. 2005. Peak oil was Four Years Ago! It's downhill from then on, as we can all clearly witness.

Dwindling oil suplies are precisely why humans are desperately searching around for Other Things to Burn, such as (but not limited to) our corn and wheat crops, as well as converting the dwindling remains of our rain forests into horribly destructive and 'green' oil substitute crops such as sugar and palm.

[Ayoob]

How long until we find out what the decline rate is going to be?

When do we make a 10% decline in daily oil flow? When do we hit the first halving time?

[dukey]

pretty big news.

This from the weekly petroleum status report was also fairly big news ..

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about
9.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.5 percent from the same period last year.

especially considering the fact we are in a huge recession right now

[gnm]

Oily? Auntie? Where are you when we need you?!

-G

[Tyler_JC]

What's the margin of error for yearly oil production? 1%? 2%?

I don't think there's a statistically signficant difference between 73,728 and 73,709. The gap is only 19,000 barrels a day out of 73 million or .03%.

Moreover, we're in the middle of a major recession which has slashed global oil demand. We can't know for sure what the real production rate would be if not for the current recession.



We had a pretty big dip in oil production in the 1980s (nearly 15% drop!) that didn't result in a permanent decline.

We need more data to confirm a peak. Come talk to me in 2011-2012.

I don't mean to rain on this parade, I just don't want us to make the call too early and sound like Colin Campbell.