THE Power Down Thread (merged)

[Ebyss]

Interesting to see they're actually taking votes on this kind of thing already. Pity most of them are too blind with greed to put 2+2 together... they're probably economists.

[gnm]

THATS ALL? Oh they will get a 1mil/day cut all right... Just not the way they expect... Man talk about too little too late...

By the time the beurecrats deal with it you can be sure the problem has already been entrenched for years....

-G

[aldente]

My guess is that those fellows understand the problem "somewhat" but can't comprehend it really. As if in 2013 these kind of discussions would matter. Politics will have mutated to permanent crisis management by then.

[DomusAlbion]

By the time the beurecrats deal with it you can be sure the problem has already been entrenched for years....
-G

Amen to that. That's why a growing group of the populace must deal with the problem from the bottom up. By the time any government gets around to addressing the problem it will be too late to avoid suffering on a grand scale.

[DriveElectric]

Lawmakers with automakers in their districts led the fight to defeat Waxman's proposal, arguing it was backdoor way to require U.S. mini-vans, sport utility vehicles and pick-up trucks to improve their fuel efficiency."

I have another back door plan to improve their fuel efficiency. $3.00 per gallon gas destroys their sales numbers because everyone wants to buy a Toyota Hybrid which gets 50/60 mpg.

[FoxV]

...Man talk about too little too late...

Anyone see the movie "Eric the Viking"?
Whenever I read things like this I always flash back to the scene of the Town mayor (sorry forget the name of the island) reassuring everyone that the island is not sinking as his head slips beneath the water. His primary arguement being that the island has never sank before, so its obviously not sinking now.
I think if we listen to our leaders we can expect a similar fate.
(btw, the mayor's head is the last to disappear as he is sitting higher than everyone else. I see something very prophetic in that scene)

[crude_intentions]

"The committee voted down, 39 to 12, a separate amendment to require the federal government to find a way to cut U.S. oil demand by 1 million barrels a day by 2013. The amendment offered by Democrat Henry Waxman of California aimed to reduce imports of crude oil.
Lawmakers with automakers in their districts led the fight to defeat Waxman's proposal, arguing it was backdoor way to require U.S. mini-vans, sport utility vehicles and pick-up trucks to improve their fuel efficiency."

Call Me anti-american but its stories like this that actually Make me want to see america burn to the Ground. Whats wrong with forcing Automakers to improve on thier fuel effciency? I hope the American Car industry Falls flat on its Ass, Oh wait they already are.
And Why? because people WANT fuel effcient Cars, mainly from Japan

[Wildwell]

"The committee voted down, 39 to 12, a separate amendment to require the federal government to find a way to cut U.S. oil demand by 1 million barrels a day by 2013. The amendment offered by Democrat Henry Waxman of California aimed to reduce imports of crude oil.
Lawmakers with automakers in their districts led the fight to defeat Waxman's proposal, arguing it was backdoor way to require U.S. mini-vans, sport utility vehicles and pick-up trucks to improve their fuel efficiency."

Call Me anti-american but its stories like this that actually Make me want to see america burn to the Ground. Whats wrong with forcing Automakers to improve on thier fuel effciency? I hope the American Car industry Falls flat on its Ass, Oh wait they already are.
And Why? because people WANT fuel effcient Cars, mainly from Japan

$$$$$$
It will be forced in the end, the writing is on the wall now.

[nth]

How high does CAFE need to be anywaysto save 1mbpd?

[aahala]

If you're wanting to reduce it 1 MBD from current usage, it might take quite an increase in CAFE standards -- it takes quite a while before the existing fleet is replaced and you must consider possible growth in average miles driven and number of vehicles.
I believe the present CAFE is 21 for trucks and 27.5 for passenger cars. The truck standard is scheduled to increase about a mile over the next two years.
There is a weight exception loophole manufacters use--if you make the vehicle heavy enough, it's not counted at all. Can you say HUMMER?

[DriveElectric]

$3 gasoline will have a bigger impact on fuel economy than anything that the government could ever legislate.
This summer should be very interesting. They are already predicting $2.35 average for the USA by late May.
I look forward to the SUV sales results for June/July/August. I am predicting declines in sales of SUVs of over 30% compared to 2004.
Also look for announcements from auto manufacturers that they are discontinuing production of certain slow selling models.

[nth]

Well, just to cap crude consumption will require us to increase quite a bit is what you are saying.
I agree.
I wonder if anyone has a rate of old cars being replaced with new cars where the old cars are decommissioned and never put back on the road.

[nth]

$3 gasoline will have a bigger impact on fuel economy than anything that the government could ever legislate.
This summer should be very interesting. They are already predicting $2.35 average for the USA by late May.
I look forward to the SUV sales results for June/July/August. I am predicting declines in sales of SUVs of over 30% compared to 2004.
Also look for announcements from auto manufacturers that they are discontinuing production of certain slow selling models.

If what you are saying comes true, then layoffs and plant shutdowns.
This will also affect all the parts makers, etc.
Talking about 50k ppl layoff if 30% drop in suv/truck/van sales.

[DriveElectric]

Well, just to cap crude consumption will require us to increase quite a bit is what you are saying.
I agree.
I wonder if anyone has a rate of old cars being replaced with new cars where the old cars are decommissioned and never put back on the road.

From a fuel economy POV, nothing changes. Fuel economy has not improved or worsened by more than a point or two either way.
The change would be in emissions. Car models after 1995 are much better. But CO2 would be the same.

[wisegoat]

SAVE AMERICA!!! BUY SUVS!!!! or let it rot in hell like some of you suggested..
neither sound appealing. BUT I hardly think "improvement" can *EVER* be a bad thing! "OH don't vote for that, they want to *IMPROVE* things!" Who VOTED for these people anyways? Oh wait there's no such thing as voting anymore, the machine decides everything for you wackos
More to the point tho.. wouldn't it be the best god damn thing for their business to allow people to have the trucks and SUV's they want and still afford to drive it? Might even get a few sales over in the orient... I work in sales, and keeping the brotha down is no way to run a business! I'd quit my job for moral reasons.

[savethehumans]

Hey, what the heck, guys, go for broke! Just keep DST year-round! It'll get darker later than it would under ST, even if it's dark by 4PM!
Next, get to some good bipartisan talks with the Earth and Sun about that 36-hour day deal!

[EnergySpin]

An interesting web gizzmo:
http://stew.physics.unc.edu/#simmer
Explore various scenarios for powerdown/energy substitution/conservation etc on your PC.
The doomers can now graph the doom in extended precision floating point, and the optimists can calc how many nukes, how much bio(fuel/algae/ethanol) has to harvested.
SUVs die in all scenarios though (feels soooo gooooood)

[Macsporan]

Looks interesting and I can't wait for the forum boy geniuses to run it a few times.

As for me, I'm innumerate so I'll just sit and watch.

[Pops]

That is pretty cool.
The obvious flaw of course is in limiting growth of bio-fuels – totally ignoring the huge potential to ramp up cow chip burning!

Shouldn’t this be in the modeling forum though?

[MonteQuest]

The Powerdown Solution: The Plan

We find ourselves at a crossroads on the path to our future. Unlike most animals, we have the ability to reason, predict, and anticipate the consequences of our actions. But by the time mankind had a grasp on science/ecology and realized there were limits, he was already past many of them. Our “special nature” and uniqueness came a little too late. Yes, in the animal kingdom we reign supreme; and with an unmatched arrogance and hubris, we have dominated and exploited our world in a cheap and selfish way, almost totally disregarding nature and the descendants who will inherit our legacy.

There are those who suggest there are no limits, and that technology and the “invisible hand of the market” will always be there to circumvent or overcome them, while others question that assumption with good reason. We seem to find ourselves set exclusively on proving the impossibility of growth, and we are easily deluded by a simple, but false conclusion: that since exponential growth in a finite world leads to disasters of all kinds, ecological salvation must then lie in the stationary or steady state; a utopian world in which both population and necessary resources remain constant. The false conclusion here is not seeing that not only growth, but also a zero-growth state, in fact, even a declining state which does not converge toward a die-off, cannot exist forever in a finite environment. Life is a cycle of birth, death, and renewal; not a linear growth process into infinity.

A steady-state world may for a while be in harmony with its environment, but this utopian world cannot last forever; sooner or later the balancing system will collapse. At that time, the steady state will enter a crisis which will defeat its alleged design and nature.

Undoubtedly, the current growth must cease and be reversed. But anyone who believes that he can draw a blueprint for the ecological salvation of the human species does not understand the nature of evolution, or even of history — which is that of a permanent struggle for survival in continuously novel forms. So, any blueprint must really be a rough sketch that evolves and changes over time; it can’t be carved in stone.

Having said that, will mankind listen to any plan that implies a constriction of its addiction to creature comforts? Perhaps the destiny of man is to have a short extravagant life in a constant battle with his environment, rather than a long introspective one in harmony with it. The necessary conclusion of the arguments in favor of that latter vision is that the most desirable state is not a steady state, but a declining one.

So, I present for your review, my Powerdown Solution Plan for the World.

There will be several phases. This thread will stay locked until all the phases are complete. At that time it will be opened for debate to all comers subject only to the rules of the Code of Conduct and site policy.