Stock market shake-up: So what happens Monday?

[Armageddon]

[smilie=headbang.gif] **roots for collapse**

Be careful what you wish for...

Yup, I am kind of use to eating and staying warm.

[Cid_Yama]

Why are the balls on that bull so shiney? Are people rubbing them for luck or something?

[Armageddon]

Why are the balls on that bull so shiney? Are people rubbing them for luck or something?

You haven't heard that yet ? Get with the program ! lol, there was a line a mile long last week waiting for a rub.

[Cid_Yama]

Not being a New Yorker, I lack insight into their strange customs.

Are you serious?

[Armageddon]

Not being a New Yorker, I lack insight into their strange customs.

Are you serious?

No

[Cid_Yama]

<b>Pros Looked to Bearish ETFs in Q3; Ultrashort Financial Favored</b>

If anyone has been winning on Wall Street this year, it's been the bears. Luckily for the investors who foresaw the weakness, thanks to innovations in the world of exchange traded funds (ETFs), being a bear has never been easier.

This year is certainly not the first time the mood has turned sour on Wall Street; what is different, however, is the ease with which investors can now make broad bearish bets. One can sell short any of the dozens of ETFs that track the market and its various sectors, or -- better yet -- investors can buy shares of any of the many short or "ultrashort" ETFs, which are engineered to return the inverse (or two or three times the inverse) of the indexes they track.

These vehicles are still quite new and unfamiliar to many individual investors, but they have become widely tracked by tickerspy.com members during 2008. Bearish ETFs also popped up in Pro investor end-of-Q3 portfolios where they likely helped stem the losses seen by many on Wall Street so far during Q4.
link

[ALBY]

**roots for collapse**

[bodigami]

Why are the balls on that bull so shiney? Are people rubbing them for luck or something?

...eh, it may be exposure in the photograph or "artistic license" (the artist wanted to make a bull with shinny balls).

[ALBY]

taleb on charlie rose

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9713

fooled by randomness changed my life

[ALBY]

non farm payrolls down 533K vs 350K consensus.

oh dear...

[frankthetank]

Got to finish down at least 500 today. Maybe more like 700...

If it finishes in the green this market is manipulated beyond belief.

[biofuel13]

Got to finish down at least 500 today. Maybe more like 700...

If it finishes in the green this market is manipulated beyond belief.

Frank-

I think you are on the right track, but may be taking it a bit far. I expect a red day for sure but I think we will have some tremendous support at the 8000 level. I'm just not sure the bulls have really given up yet.

Today I think we end right at or around the 8000 mark, but unless there is some major good news over the weekend I think we will retest our mid 7000 lows by next Wednesday for sure.

[sjn]

Got to finish down at least 500 today. Maybe more like 700...

If it finishes in the green this market is manipulated beyond belief.

Frank-

I think you are on the right track, but may be taking it a bit far. I expect a red day for sure but I think we will have some tremendous support at the 8000 level. I'm just not sure the bulls have really given up yet.

Today I think we end right at or around the 8000 mark, but unless there is some major good news over the weekend I think we will retest our mid 7000 lows by next Wednesday for sure.

You mean good news like the Chinese stop buying treasuries to offset the "stimulus" and the dollar collapses into a Zimbabwe style hyper-inflationary spiral as the printing presses are forced to make up the difference? That kind of "good" news?

[smallpoxgirl]

taleb on charlie rose

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9713

fooled by randomness changed my life

I'm currently working on the Black Swan. Awesome book. He's exactly right. I thought it was going to be about finance. He uses finance as an example in several places but it's not a finance book. It's about history, philosophy, psychology, and epistimology.

[biofuel13]

SPG--

What's your call for today?

[smallpoxgirl]

Got to finish down at least 500 today. Maybe more like 700...

If it finishes in the green this market is manipulated beyond belief.

I definitely would not say that. This market has really changed character over the last two weeks. There's some really solid bullish sentiment out there and the bears aren't able to follow through on things anymore. Yesterday we had that beautiful bear run going and then bounced back up 100 points. This morning in the futures markets, we got a nice 100 point drop on the jobs report, then it bounced back up 50 points. We're not falling onto cement anymore. We're falling onto springs. IMHO, it is a time for caution and tight stops by bears.

[biofuel13]

Markets are really quite flat given the jobs report. I agree with SPG, us bears have been loosing momentum. We can't help it though. This time of year we get very sleepy!

[yesplease]

Got to finish down at least 500 today. Maybe more like 700...

If it finishes in the green this market is manipulated beyond belief.

How so? The market doesn't depends on how bad things are per say, but instead how bad things are compared to how bad they were expected to be. Or good, or both, etc...

[ALBY]

the market has some stochastic moves to work thru, but taleb gives tyou the big picture:

markets are stupid and easily manipulated

confidence in the markets is broken and demand for securities has been vaporized.

the hedge funds must delever before they die.

lots of downside risk yet.

now, like spg, i will not let 'what i know' about the markets stop me from seeing reality. market sentiment is temporarily strong and we need to trade with that in mind.

[smallpoxgirl]

SPG--

What's your call for today?

I just really don't know. It could go either way at this point. Peter Worden says the market is kind of tensed waiting on word on the auto bailout and is likely to take off like a rocket when that happens. That feels right to me. The overall sentiment for the week has been bearish, but there were a couple of really powerful rallies yesterday. Big players buying big volumes. Anything from maybe 300 down to 200 up wouldn't surprise me as an outcome for today.