THE Tar Sands Thread (merged)

[TheDude]

Piece in today's NYT: Unconventional Oil on the March, which links to a more detailed article at Greenwire.

As countries cast about for alternatives to Middle Eastern oil supplies, the debate over nonconventional sources of oil — principally that which is milked, in a variety of ways, from sand and rock — has become increasingly pitched.

Proponents see them as viable and cost-effective alternatives to conventional oil. Opponents argue that nearly all methods for separating usable oil from earthen deposits is energy-intensive and profoundly polluting.

Today, Ben Geman at Greenwire.com takes an exhaustive look at oil sands production in Alberta, Canada — one of the biggest sources of unconventional oil. Canada, Mr. Geman notes, is the biggest oil supplier to the United States, providing roughly 19 percent of Ameria’s imports, and most of this comes from Alberta:

[WildRose]

The Pembina Institute has recently published the report, below, in which they outline the need for the government of Alberta and the federal government of Canada to reform their approach to environmental management with respect to oil sands development. After years of trying to protect Alberta from unsustainable practices in the tar sands, they are fed up!

Report, Taking the Wheel

http://www.oilsandswatch.org/pub/1677

[skiptamali]

Fantastic.

Previously touted as a fantastic source of domestically-produced, reliable petroleum, oil sands have officially been dismissed as a feasible means of cutting carbon emissions by the Canadian government.

OK I know North American oil is supposedly better than buying from Venezuela or the Middle Eastern OPEC countries, but all I've been hearing is bad news about how its production process is arduous & severely pollutes surrounding ecosystems.

Thank goodness the Canadian govt has finally put an axe in this one! It may have taken the high cost and energy excuse, but I'm breathing easier now that one super destructo way of ripping apart land for resources is declared bunk for climate change.

Now if we can just get the US govt to stop buying it...

[some_math_guy]

You make it sound like a foregone conclusion!

I can assure you that the Canadian government is not, and will not, being doing anything to obstruct further tar sands development in Alberta. The Conservative government has made this clear through continuing preferential tax rates and huge subsidies to tar sands companies, as well as demonstrating a total disregard for environmental concerns like the 5-square kilometer lake of toxic sludge in Fort McMurray that is currently poisoning local residents over 250km away.

The current Prime Minister has a long personal and family history of employment with and connections to oil companies, and until he is forced out, the tar sands will continue on an ever-larger scale.

[Jester]

The process is turning the landscape into a wasteland. As long as it makes money, they don't care.








The only thing that will slow it is less demand, and only temporarily. A lot of projects are getting shelved because of the low oil prices right now. Once the price goes back up, it'll be back to expanding more even more projects...

[RdSnt]

There is a very narrow price range, for regular petroleum, where the tar sands will be viable. If the price of oil goes too high the companies can't afford the fuels and feed stocks needed to process the tar.

Once the natural gas feedstock in the area are used up tar sands development will come to a halt. Talk of using nuclear to extract the tar is simply not viable and still doesn't solve the problem of a lack of natural gas.

[highlander]

While I disagree they are a total waste, It is true that expansion is not in the cards for the near future. The machinery is being torn down and moved to Australia (for what?) It is unlikely it will be returned even when oil hits 200/bbl

[DaleFromCalgary]

"The machinery is being torn down and moved to Australia "

What machinery are you talking about? The Athabasca Tar Sands (open pit mining) and the Peace River and Cold Lake oilsands (belowground horizontal drilling) are and will still continue to operate. New projects are being postponed so perhaps the construction equipment is being moved elsewhere to other jobs.

The oilsands are not shutting down.

[POAlex]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

[ColossalContrarian]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

My WAG is $85 a barrel.

here's some more info:
The returns on extracting oil from tar sands is approximately 3 barrels of oil for every 2 consumed.

EROEI of 1.5

Tar Sands are about to get OWNED!!! as in going out of business for awhile....

Tar Sands info

[mos6507]

EROEI of 1.5

Even biofuels can do better than that.

[Blacksmith]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

My WAG is $85 a barrel.

here's some more info:
The returns on extracting oil from tar sands is approximately 3 barrels of oil for every 2 consumed.

EROEI of 1.5

Tar Sands are about to get OWNED!!! as in going out of business for awhile....

Tar Sands info

Natural Gas was $6.36US today, at a ratio of 1:5, that's $31.80US per barrel of oil equivalent, oil is selling for $46.85US, difference of $15.05US. The way to hurt these people is to use more natural gas.

[Dreamtwister]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

My WAG is $85 a barrel.

here's some more info:
The returns on extracting oil from tar sands is approximately 3 barrels of oil for every 2 consumed.

EROEI of 1.5

Tar Sands are about to get OWNED!!! as in going out of business for awhile....

Tar Sands info

Natural Gas was $6.36US today, at a ratio of 1:5, that's $31.80US per barrel of oil equivalent, oil is selling for $46.85US, difference of $15.05US. The way to hurt these people is to use more natural gas.

Your calculation doesn't even factor in things like maintenance and wages. $15/bbl is at best, wildly optimistic.

[KevO]

At what oil price do the tar sands become unprofitable?

Alex

It's losing $$$$$$ now and big time.
Tar sands are about to become a thing, and a permanent thing, of the past

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Good! but will they be forced to clean up the mess they'd already made? or will they just walk away saying they'll be back at some point so theres no point in totally fixing everything back to a pristine state.

[Blacksmith]

Your calculation doesn't even factor in things like maintenance and wages. $15/bbl is at best, wildly optimistic.

Then you are saying an EROEI of 1.5 is incorrect.

[harrybuckman]

At today's natural gas and oil prices. The cost to extract and produce for a company like suncor is around 30-32 $/bbl (the cost is around 35$/bbl at high oil and gas prices). So at current prices they still make 15$/bbl. At a dailly production of 230 000 bbls it puts a daily profit of almost 3.5 million dollars.

I don't know about you but if I was making 3.5 million every 24 hrs, I don't think I would close up shop just yet.

The oil sand are here to stay for as long as we all live, because that oil is already found and developed.

[ColossalContrarian]

I can't seem to find a difinitive source for the eroei of tar sands but I found another source:

"Over the past few years, I have seen a lot of speculation about the EROEI of tar sands (also known by the more marketable term, 'oil sands'). I had seen estimates ranging from as low as 1.5/1 up to 4 or 5/1. My own suspicion has been that the number was higher than that, and I once did a back of the envelope based on some industry energy usage numbers that put the number at about 8/1 (for just the oil production step)."

link

[Blacksmith]

One of my neighbours works for Syncrude, as of last week all expansion has been suspended and the only crews kept on will be maintenance and those crews will be reduced.

[Dreamtwister]

Your calculation doesn't even factor in things like maintenance and wages. $15/bbl is at best, wildly optimistic.

Then you are saying an EROEI of 1.5 is incorrect.

No, I'm saying you didn't factor in all of the dollar costs.