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THE Tar Sands Thread (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: What a disaster the tar-sands are!

Unread postby Kveldulf » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 18:17:24

GregWatson wrote:
Vogelzang wrote:I want my gasoline.

At what price does the spoiled child demand petrol?

There are "No Free Lunches". Pollute and you pay.

Greg


All I can say is I'm glad I can walk across the border if need be... I just hate to leave what is currently a nice place behind. Not to mention where I was born and raised and all that sentimental stuff.

Some people fail to see that disrespecting your environment is disrespecting yourself. YOU have to live in it. YOU depend on it. It isn't some abstract thing floating around in political debates. It's your air, water, food, and land.

The natural environment will recover/adapt in time...no worries there. Will it be a place humans can/want to live? That's the real question.
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Re: What a disaster the tar-sands are!

Unread postby gampy » Mon 07 Jul 2008, 22:18:49

Homesteader wrote:
gampy wrote:I hope the good people of North America (or at least this website) understand what our current lifestyles truly cost.

Oh....the awful oil companies.

Don't blame them. Blame yourselves. Blame all of us.

Alberta will resemble Mordor in another 10 years as production and investment ramps up.

Park your cars, don't buy plastic, or nylon clothing. The only way to get people to stop using that awful stuff under the boreal forest is to curb demand.

Anyways, I am sad, and resigned to the fact that Alberta (and the watersheds down river of the area) are going to be sacrificed for a steady supply of motor fuel for North America.

But I am kind of angry that Alberta's government (and hence, her peoples) don't give a crap.

Oh well. Not my neck of the woods. Hopefully, when the whole thing is over, they don't mind trying to eke out a living in a ecological wasteland. Good luck with that.

It's a crime what the Albertan government has allowed to happen. All for a few bucks. I know thjere are a few Albertans who visit this website, and some of them don't give a rat's ass about what's going on, but I would hope that public opinion would start to pressure the government to regulate the industry up there a little better.

Rant over. Enjoy your daily commutes, and 3000 mile tomatoes.


I agree with the tenor of your post. However, if the tar sands where located elsewhere the outcome would be the same.


Yeah, this is true. Mostly.

Some jurisdictions have historically been better stewards of their environment than others, but resources and money usually trump long term self interest.

It makes me sad, and ashamed of my country and countrymen to see such wasteful behavior. Not just Alberta, but Ontario (omfg...ever been to Sudbury, Ontario in the '70's and 80's?)
British Columbia (have a look at the interior of Vancouver Island on Google Maps satellite...vaste areas clearcut...looks like a patchwork quilt from 5 mileup)

Some of the finest arable land on earth paved over to make subdivisions for the GTA.

I guess you have to be stoic, and a little cynical otherwise you might as well just move to a cave in the forest, and eat earthworms and carrion.

We are all connected. No one is innocent.

However...

Some are more guilty than others.

I am looking at you Ralph Klein, et al.
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Re: What a disaster the tar-sands are!

Unread postby WildRose » Tue 08 Jul 2008, 14:23:31

Serial_Worrier wrote:
WildRose wrote:
Dezakin wrote:
WildRose wrote:Unfortunately, I get the impression that it's anti-Albertan to knock the oil sands industry. You wouldn't believe the things I've heard at some barbecues, etc. I keep looking for ways to open people's eyes to the realities of the environmental impacts. You are correct, I think, that the only thing that will slow this down is some nasty demand destruction.

Why should we care about frozen hellholes in the middle of nowhere?


An excellent question.

The answer is "because everyone is downstream".

http://oilsandstruth.org/


Prove it.


Well, I'll do my best.

The damage and effects of tar sands production are many and far-reaching.

First of all, there is the destruction of about one-fifth of Alberta's land mass, including boreal forest (which is an excellent carbon sink) and wetlands. This will take hundreds of years to be restored, if ever. There is the pollution of air and rivers, which is affecting people and wildlife along the Athabasca River downstream from Fort McMurray, causing rare cancers in people and fish. The toxic tailings ponds kill higher numbers of ducks and other water fowl than we are aware of and are, in places, very close to the Athabasca River and separated by a barrier which could be breached someday, spilling huge amounts of toxins into the river.

Further south, near Edmonton, an area 530 square miles is allotted for an industrial complex dubbed "Upgrader Alley" (see the report I linked to in my previous post). It looks like nine upgraders will be operating just northeast of Edmonton between 2015 and 2020. What we can expect from this, environmentally, unless significant measures are taken to slow down this development and do so in a responsible manner, is the following:

- huge amounts of water extracted from the North Saskatchewan River, up to 10 times as much as the city of Edmonton currently uses. This, from a river which is wide and very shallow in most places, and the risk of endangering the water ecosystems is high if water levels get too low.

- natural gas - twice as much as is needed to heat all of the homes in Edmonton will be needed for upgrader operations

- much greater electrical demand on a grid that is already stressed. In fact, the electrical need for this complex will be equal to the amount of electricity that powers all the homes in Alberta.

- increased emissions of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides (by about 30 to 40%), causing smog and increased incidence of respiratory symptoms and disease.

- carcinogenic VOC's (volatile organic compounds), such as benzene, which is known to be toxic to humans.

- huge impact to agricultural land, very fine quality agricultural land, which might be better used for growing vegetables in the future?

- huge impacts to wetlands, groundwater, soils, habitats and landscapes in general in the area northeast of Edmonton and Edmonton city, as there are increases in road construction and rail to accommodate the industrial complex.

- socioeconomically, a lot of the problems encountered in Fort McMurray, caused by rapid and uncontrolled growth of the industry, will be repeated in Edmonton (high prices for rents, services, inadequate housing, etc.)

In total, about one-quarter of Alberta's land mass will be consumed by tar sands development by the time all of this is added to the extensive destruction in northern Alberta.

We can expect greenhouse gas emissions of 45 megatonnes per year from this expansion. Emissions from Fort McMurray are already the biggest source of greenhouse gas pollution in Canada. These emissions ultimately contribute to global climate change.

So, that's what is meant by "we're all downstream".

The future for Alberta, in my opinion, is not a pretty picture.
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Re: What a disaster the tar-sands are!

Unread postby Kveldulf » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 04:07:20

gampy wrote:British Columbia (have a look at the interior of Vancouver Island on Google Maps satellite...vaste areas clearcut...looks like a patchwork quilt from 5 mileup)

That destroys area for lichen to grow and allows wolves easy access to the deep forest, pushing caribou towards extinction. The "jobs and money" cop-out is covering their asses yet again, even though selective cutting means a lot more jobs.
On the youtube video asking for support on this matter, some loggers were actually threatening to kill Caribou if people kept protesting.
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Re: What a disaster the tar-sands are!

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 13:29:51

Kveldulf wrote:
gampy wrote:British Columbia (have a look at the interior of Vancouver Island on Google Maps satellite...vaste areas clearcut...looks like a patchwork quilt from 5 mileup)

That destroys area for lichen to grow and allows wolves easy access to the deep forest, pushing caribou towards extinction. The "jobs and money" cop-out is covering their asses yet again, even though selective cutting means a lot more jobs.
On the youtube video asking for support on this matter, some loggers were actually threatening to kill Caribou if people kept protesting.


Karma is a bitch, those loggers should know... :twisted: :twisted:
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At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby alokin » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 17:45:46

Crude oil drops like a stone. At which price of crude are the Canadian tar sands no longer economically viable? When the deep water oil reserves? When the ethanol projects?

Here is what I think might happen:
Crude drops even more. Unconventional oil sources are no longer economically viable, All or some of them shut down. Conventional sources are in decline. Even more as turmoil in oil producing countries are more likely due to the economic crisis. Oil production may decline even more.
Oil prices will raise again, but the economical crisis makes it difficult to reopen the unconventional sources. As a result oil production remains low.

I have no figures for this and this is speculation anyway, but what do you think of this scenario?
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby gampy » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 17:57:07

Without researching this some more, I am of the understanding that
$40 a barrel is the point where it becomes unprofitable. But it all depends on the oil company, where their lease is, how close they are to a water source, and a whole range of other factors.

But for brevity's sake, I would go with $35-40 a barrel for the companies with established, and productive operations.

It would certainly make it prohibitive for new developments, and R&D, however. Even oil companies require financing for new projects. As of today, not much credit is available for expanding any kind of business.

If the economy really tanks, like it looks to be, I think it's safe to say that development will slow down considerably.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby cipi604 » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 17:58:10

It sounds like the new reality ... Olduvai theory goes forward.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby sicophiliac » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 22:24:23

Well if these unconventional fossil fuel companies start to shut down production then the supply/demand balance will tip again and prices will rise. Even if the economy gets so bad that demand collapses beyond the ability for oil sands production to make an impact on the price of oil it wont last long. Maybe a year or so baring a global nuclear war or asteroid hitting us. I think its more likely OPEC will slash production to put a floor on oil prices.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby Eli » Tue 07 Oct 2008, 22:31:24

sicophiliac wrote:Well if these unconventional fossil fuel companies start to shut down production then the supply/demand balance will tip again and prices will rise. Even if the economy gets so bad that demand collapses beyond the ability for oil sands production to make an impact on the price of oil it wont last long. Maybe a year or so baring a global nuclear war or asteroid hitting us. I think its more likely OPEC will slash production to put a floor on oil prices.


Yeah that is when things will go from horrible to Apocalyptic.

We are entering into a wold wide economic depression as the global financial system fails. What do we find as we claw our way out of the pit? Peak Oil.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 00:49:58

Eli wrote:Yeah that is when things will go from horrible to Apocalyptic. We are entering into a world wide economic depression as the global financial system fails. What do we find as we claw our way out of the pit? Peak Oil.

That is why I don't consider NWO to be a feasible outcome.
1. Economy fails.
2. Resource base fails.
3. Environmental disaster is developing.

That implies fragmentation of global system, not further integration, regardless of wishes of enlightened elites.
There will not be sufficient resources to run integrated global system. And there will be a quarrel over remaining ones...
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby Gebari » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 04:42:11

That's a theory I've been thinking about for some time. It won't just be tar sands either but many other expensive difficult reserves that have been opened in the last few years due to the oil price explosion - including biofuels. They may now be unprofitable, so they are abandoned. The mad rush to produce them when they were profitable may have damaged them also (and maybe the larger reservoir if they were an uneconomical part of a larger field) , and the economic problems ahead may mean that they are never reopened.

The collapse of credit may cut a lot of funding for other sorts of oil production aswell, including biofuels. There could also be further problems with maintenance and repairs of infastructure if/when the economy goes to hell. This is pretty much worst case scenario for the long term.

EnergyUnlimited, I agree with that too. I think we're going to see a breakdown of globalisaton and increasing nationalism. A general lurch to the right.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 07:32:15

Your Tar Sands projects for 2008-2011:

Code: Select all
Canada    North Amethyst    01/2010    Husky
Canada    AOSP Expansion 1 (Jackpine Ph 1A)    2010   Shell
Canada    Christina Lake (Phase 1C)    2010   EnCana
Canada    Primrose East    02/2009    CNRL
Canada    Firebag Ph 3    2009   Suncor
Canada    Jackfish Ph 2    2010   Devon Energy
Canada    Jackfish Ph 1    03/2008   Devon Energy
Canada    Christina Lake (Unnamed Expansion 1)    2011   EnCana
Canada    MacKay River Ph 2    2011   Petro-Canada
Canada    Millennium Coker Unit    2008   Suncor
Canada    Kearl Mine Ph 1    06/2010   ExxonMobil
Canada    Christina Lake (Phase 1D)    2011   
Canada    Kirby    2011   CNRL
Canada    Long Lake Upgrader Ph 1    09/2008   OPTI /Nexen
Canada    Horizon Oil Sands Project (Phase I)    09/2008   CNRL
Canada    Christina Lake Ph 2    08/2008   MEG
Canada    Christina Lake Ph 1B    09/2008   EnCana


Checking quotes they all look down across the board. Dunno how that affects their ultimate capitalization potential. Gail Tverberg wrote a TOD post on The Impact of the Credit Crunch on Energy Markets, if you want to dig deeper.

My own feeling is that we're screwed/trapped/stuck/painted into a corner.

Prices decline = gasoline is more affordable = drivers give up on that awful MT they had to resort to = back up with VMT = we hit supply snag due to dropping price making unconventional and high price floor conventional sources uneconomical - GOM rigs damaged by Ike for instance.

Also GM sees which way the wind is blowing and delays or abandons Volt. Toyota's stock is taking it on the chin already - will they proceed with $1.3 billion Prii plant in Mississippi? Etc. etc.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby DarkDawg » Wed 08 Oct 2008, 08:14:41

Also, the multiple nuclear energy plants that McCain thinks will "bridge the gap" will have no capital from which to be built. When NG and UNG is gone and nuclear is unfeasible economically, how will the tar and shale be processed? The solar sector is also taking a dump.

The end of credit = TSHTF = PO.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby DaleFromCalgary » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 08:09:22

Existing oilsands* plants will keep going down to $40 a barrel because the capital costs are taken care of. What is happening now is that new projects are being postponed, officially because of high construction costs.


*Don't confuse "tar sands" with "oil sands". There are three main oil sands deposits in northern Alberta: Cold Lake (below ground), Peace River (below ground), and Athabasca (exposed at the surface). Cold Lake and Peace River deposits are steamed out with horizontal drilling. Athabasca deposits are mined from open pits and steam-heated in giant trommels. Tar sands are simply oil sands exposed at the surface. All tar sands are oil sands but not all oil sands are tar sands.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby Aimrehtopyh » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 09:18:40

I thought that the biggest factor for oil sands was the differential between the price of natural gas and the price of crude.

As long as natural gas falls along with crude they should remain profitable, right?

Spikes in the price of natural gas have resulted in shutdowns in the past, and this was when crude was well above $40.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 10:13:07

I think the most important factor is how old the facilities are: the older ones got financing when money was cheaper. And these are very capital intensive projects.

Those that have cheaper financing in place have a lower marginal cost.

</speculation>
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby deMolay » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 10:14:01

The only reason oil prices are falling is because of the depression setting in, in China. Many of these oil sands plant are not as dependant on Natural gas as they used to be, many now use snygas. Gas made from the crude extraction process itself. The Gahwar is dying rapidly, Mexico is dropping all conventional oil is dropping. The low prices you are seeing now will not last long, so enjoy the respite. Peak Oil is here to stay and it will continue to grind non stop. Many investors have pulled back and sold everything to settle margins and debt. Oil is energy nothing has replaced it. Or civilization's need for it yet.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 10:14:46

DarkDawg wrote:Also, the multiple nuclear energy plants that McCain thinks will "bridge the gap" will have no capital from which to be built.

Don't be silly. Google "EdF" or "TVA" or "Vattenfall".
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: At which price do tar sands shut?

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 13 Oct 2008, 10:16:11

deMolay wrote:The Gahwar is dying rapidly, Mexico is dropping all conventional oil is dropping.

Prove it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
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