North American Fuel Shortage Reports

[Revi]

We'll stick our heads back in the sand again. I think it will be a year or two before we get back to $150 a barrel. It won't be before next summer. The world is producing less oil, though. The demand isn't there with a recession looming. This is the downslope of the curve, but it isn't what we expected. There may be lots of gas and oil around, but we've all lost our jobs and can't pay for it.

[ROCKMAN]

True Revi,

I envisioned PO to be a plateau with peaks and throughs but didn't anticipate a trough of a depth we may experience soon. But I've also assumed that with most of the exporters at or past PO OPEC might be on the verge of becoming a true cartel. If $80 oil holds for any lenght of time I think we'll find out if they (the KSA essentially) can really force adherence to production level dictates.

[the48thronin]

True AP. No guess from me how far the economy will be dragged down. Back to the same balance: demand destruction vs. production decline. I'm certain DD will rule for a period. Whether it's 6 months or 5 years I wouldn't offer a guess. But lower energy prices will be taken advantage of by all. How much and how quickly that offsets DD is the question with no clear answer at the moment.

But the economic downturn should kill any and all of the ideas which have been put forth to deal w/PO IMO. As nice as it would be to see the govt take advantage of this DD to start restructuring our energy consumption habits I see very little possibility of it happening.

I take a different stance ( being out of the patch I feel free to do so LOL). I think the Jinn is out of the bottle, and I also think private initiative will do what the government has been prevented from doing by those holders of disproportionate wealth who had a vested interest in having the government prevention.

Enjoy your boom while it lasts, there was a great boom in mule breeding during the last great depression!



The key words are Government, depression ( I won't mince words), and people (perceptions come in here).

The great depressions of the past have all seen a massive change in the way people use energy, social structures, and basic life styles.

This depression comes at the end of the industrial age and co-incidentally ( if you believe that you probably aren't reading here anyway) at the peak oil point.

The way out of this depression is not dependent on the government because the government has never created new paradigm answers. The way out, and the future ( if there is one) for massive population and growth and better resource management probably will be a populist answer.

For the same reasons neither capitalism nor communism is a good government model, governments themselves will have to change to allow a recovery. The effort must involve better use of and exploration of limited resources food energy water and living space must all be handled by people better than now. NONE of these changes can be imposed other than by shortage by government.

The bright spot in this moment of history is communication. One of the limits that has forced society to accept the existence of governments in the past is communication limits. Those limits now are possibly about to be overcome in such a fashion to allow development of a world society with full free exchange of opinion and idea. THIS could be the channel that a solution to both peak oil ( which yes can be delayed but no cannot be avoided without great cost in loss of life), and disproportionate wealth ( which is not a symptom of PO but instead one of the causes of it) comes from.

Just one old mans opinion! Worth every bit what it cost you to acquire. no more no less.

[ROCKMAN]

I get your point 48. But the real problem I see is the dependence of the populace upon the Federal gov't. There may have been a time when a populist solution was doable. But I don't see that possibility now: how much "retirement" $ (Soc Sec) is controlled by the gov't? How many in society are dependent upon the gov't for health care (Medicare etc)? How much of the work force (civil sevants) are tied to the gov't? How much of our infrastructure (Intersate highways for example) is dependent upon the gov't?

You and others here can populate this list for the rest of the day and not catch every finger the gov't has in our daily lives. IMO too much of the population has become too dependent upon the gov't for its survival. And the gov't lives off the surplus of the economy. No surplus...now all giving gov't.

[vision-master]

I get your point 48. But the real problem I see is the dependence of the populace upon the Federal gov't. There may have been a time when a populist solution was doable. But I don't see that possibility now: how much "retirement" $ (Soc Sec) is controlled by the gov't? How many in society are dependent upon the gov't for health care (Medicare etc)? How much of the work force (civil sevants) are tied to the gov't? How much of our infrastructure (Intersate highways for example) is dependent upon the gov't?

You and others here can populate this list for the rest of the day and not catch every finger the gov't has in our daily lives. IMO too much of the population has become too dependent upon the gov't for its survival. And the gov't lives off the surplus of the economy. No surplus...now all giving gov't.

How's being dependent on private corporations, eh?

[ROCKMAN]

One difference is you can choose which corp to be dependent upon. You cannot not opt out of the US gov't short of giving up your citizenship.

But I probably miss your point. If you're dependent upn neither the private nor gvo't sectors how exactly do you get by?

[ushoys]

Dantes Peak said:

"The DOE reports that all pipelines are back to normal, except the Centential - which runs from Texas to Illinois. [This report was issued before the Colonial was shut down last night due to an accident]."

I had not seen any reports of Colonial shutting down again. What is the status of this now?

[the48thronin]

Dantes Peak said:

"The DOE reports that all pipelines are back to normal, except the Centential - which runs from Texas to Illinois. [This report was issued before the Colonial was shut down last night due to an accident]."

I had not seen any reports of Colonial shutting down again. What is the status of this now?

It's too close to my bed time to hunt the story which is in pipeline refinery outages I think...The short version of the story as we are told it by MSM is that above Charlotte the pipeline itself was "accidentally ruptured" by a digging contractor. This most fortuitous accident allows them to put the full output of the pipeline Charlotte and below ( Nashville, Knoxville, Atlanta MS)to build some small reserve and continue supplying the northern Piedmont area by barge from the Virgin Islands... ( wow what luck!)

Repairs were estimated to take 2 to 3 days, ( long enough to build a small reserve I bet).

I drove 700 miles since I visited yesterday, and it's time to take a 10 hour nap... try to keep the economy alive while I rest please. I promised to drive to Chicago tomorrow night.

[TheDude]

Not again, eh? UPDATE 1-Refinery outages cause W. Canada diesel shortage

CALGARY, Alberta, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Planned and unplanned refinery outages have combined to create a shortage of diesel fuel in Western Canada, leaving some truck stops with no supplies, industry officials said.

Among companies with units off line are Petro-Canada (PCA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), whose Edmonton, Alberta, refinery has been in a major turnaround since this summer, and Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), whose oil sands plant is currently pumping none of the fuel, officials with the refiners said.

The diesel shortages, which affect numerous industrial sectors, follow tight retail gasoline supplies in the region this summer, which led to some filling stations running out of fuel at the height of the summer driving season.

A processing unit at Suncor's oil sands upgrading plant in northern Alberta, which normally supplies diesel to the wholesale market, suffered an unscheduled outage in August.

[mefistofeles]

I don't know what the situation is like in other parts of North America but diesel here in Southern California is still nearly a dollar more than premium unleaded. For some reason the figure 99 cents keeps on coming to mind.

Nonetheless even with the drop in unleaded gasoline prices the actual spread between diesel and unleaded gasoline still remains nearly constant.

In fact at these prices it doesn't even make sense to own a diesel automobile.

[the48thronin]

I don't know what the situation is like in other parts of North America but diesel here in Southern California is still nearly a dollar more than premium unleaded. For some reason the figure 99 cents keeps on coming to mind.

Nonetheless even with the drop in unleaded gasoline prices the actual spread between diesel and unleaded gasoline still remains nearly constant.

In fact at these prices it doesn't even make sense to own a diesel automobile.

really... let's do the math

2 identical Mercedes 2004 models

gaser 28MPG hi way. 22 city ( real numbers not sticker) in Florida ( flat land).

diesel, 45 mpg city 48 hi way..

plug those numbers into your prices and see why the diesel has 52,000 miles on it, the gasser has 22,000


( actual numbers from a close friend.) I own a Chevy that gets 28 hi way and live in the country, no city driving . drven less than 10,000 a year, and a blazer that gets 18 mPG on it's infrequent trips from the shop in Indianna to home in lower alabama and around in indianna while the truck is in the shop about 1200 miles a year.

[TheDude]

After June 1 '06 80% of US diesel had to be Ultra-low sulfur (ULSD), which added a premium to the price. ULSD is 15 ppm sulfur, as opposed to the old regulation of 500 ppm. Heavy demand abroad accounts for more of diesel's higher value.

[POAlex]

Gas is now under $0.69/L here now. That's less than half its peak.

Alex

[pup55]

CBC

Alberta motorists continued to be plagued by a fuel shortage across the province over the weekend.
A major storm last month forced shutdowns at both Petro-Canada's refinery in Edmonton and Imperial Oil's facility in Strathcona County.
More than 50 Petro-Canada service stations throughout Alberta were out of gas altogether over the weekend.

I guess our underpopulated, oil rich neighbor to the North is not immune to an occasional technical issue....

[Maddog78]

Kind of ironic, no doubt.

The heart of the oil industry in Canada has 50 dry gas stations.

[Serial_Worrier]

I have not seen a gas shortage in my entire lifetime of pumping gas!

[Revi]

You won't see a gas shortage any time soon. The rise in gas prices is entirely Fed driven. They have taken a commodity that was going down in price and created inflation just by talking about printing money.

The price is up about 10% around here. It went from something like $2.60 to $2.90 in the past few weeks.

That will cause people to use less gas, but the price may still rise because of the Quantitative Easing.

QE2 is here. Here are a couple of great posts on it from The Automatic Earth:
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

[M_B_S]

http://www.valleynewslive.com/story/154 ... refineries

n the valley, drivers are paying around $3.70 a gallon. And right now, we're experiencing fuel shortages in our area. Add to that two refineries are shut down in Minneapolis and Montana for maintenance, meaning supply might get tougher.

Driver, Amanda Meyer, says, "It's expensive, it's just ridiculous to just drive to see my parents this weekend, it cost me two hundred dollars."
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Oh, Mr. Obama your re-election is in danger!

Oil is the problem Mr. Obama not the solution.

PEAK OIL!

M_B_S

[M_B_S]

BELIEVE ME!
THERE IS NO FUEL SHORTAGE NORE PEAK OIL!
Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy

You are here: Auto News > Video > Early New England snowstorm leads to long gas lines, shortage fears
Early New England snowstorm leads to long gas lines, shortage fears If you're old enough to remember the gas shortages of the 1970s, then you probably remember the long lines to get fuel. If you aren't old enough and you'd like to experience those lines for yourself, head to New England.

Source: http://www.autoblog.com/2011/11/02/new- ... age-fears/
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PEAK OIL?!

Where is the problem?

[rockdoc123]

PEAK OIL?!

Where is the problem?

From looking at the weekly petroleum status reports this has to be a distribution problem and not an overall supply problem. Gasoline supplies increased this past week as they have been doing for sometime and now sit above where they normally would for this time of year. Those supplies are not equally distributed throughout the country so if an unusual storm happens somewhere where the distribution network is sitting on low supply versus some other place in the US where weather is normal and the supply level is high then you have a problem. The weekly petroleum numbers seem to be saying there isn't a historically high demand for gasoline and supplies are more than enough overall.