The Natural Gas Price Watch Thread

[smallpoxgirl]

Here is my 2 catalyst. The push against the domestic use of coal, even "clean coal" is just starting to ramp up. And all of the plants that use either/or will be forced to rely on Natural Gas.

Boy, I just don't see that. Once this thing sets in, people are going to burn whatever they can burn to stay warm and keep the TV working. Such academic concerns as global warming will be subsumed to more immediate concerns like "It's cold in here".

[ROCKMAN]

I'm with you Ray. I work in the oil patch and was thrilled to see the oil drop. My two target stocks fell 25% and I was finally able to buy in. All the analysts loved these stocks at their high. But I'm already feeling sorry for my Yankee cousins and what they'll likely be paying for fuel oil come this winter. But my making a nice profit isn't going to make their lot worse.

[OilFinder2]

$8.05

[oilluber]

oilluber,

Take your Nat Gas stocks being down as a gift. Don't back out, buy in!

Here is my 2 catalyst. The push against the domestic use of coal, even "clean coal" is just starting to ramp up. And all of the plants that use either/or will be forced to rely on Natural Gas. Even with the increase in production we are getting it won't be enough. And coal is going back up as well along with the railroads as the chinese market revs back up and they take everything we can produce. Look at the back logs in equipment at Joy Global and Bucyrus the only manufacturers of modern coal excavating equipment. The Bull Coal market is also going to be right back!

I think the window is really only about 3-5 months and you'll be selling your Natural Gas positions at a profit!

i havn't sold anything. Nibbled alittle yesterday.
Pitty the US financials always get a boost from bernanke while
energy stocks are always scoffed at.

[frankthetank]

Rockman-

Care to share your picks?

Under $8... I guess if it stays down around 8 for winter, i'll be happy. Have the woodstove, just no dry wood.

[ROCKMAN]

frank - - Based on my over all poor peformance picking stocks I don't share...I'm just not that mean. But look at any big independent with good NG reserves and an active drilling program. Then do as I do: see what all the analysts have to say about a company. Then I look for any time bombs they might point out

[frankthetank]

I paid $20 for Canadian Maple Leafs not long ago... My butt hurts! OK. I'll see what i can dig up.

[oilluber]

Rockman-

Care to share your picks?

Under $8... I guess if it stays down around 8 for winter, i'll be happy. Have the woodstove, just no dry wood.

i noticed that they were buring wood to keep warm
in the north east kingdom, in 2003, before the recession

[OilFinder2]

$7.86

[pup55]

For the four weeks of July this year, we managed to store 343 bcf of gas, which is the most since 2003.

Contrast this with 2006 when we stored 160 for the same period. Last year it was 319.

Reason: No big heat spell up around Chicago and Cleveland this year.

There is a lot of gas around.

[BigTex]

ROCKMAN is talking about Devon maybe.

That's a good play for a lot of reasons, I think.

It's about 25% off of its high.

The service companies have been knocked down as much as the producers, and their profits are a lot less tied to the price of oil and gas.

[ROCKMAN]

Maybe...maybe not Mr. BigTex smartypants.

[oilluber]

For the four weeks of July this year, we managed to store 343 bcf of gas, which is the most since 2003.

Contrast this with 2006 when we stored 160 for the same period. Last year it was 319.

Reason: No big heat spell up around Chicago and Cleveland this year.

There is a lot of gas around.

sounds like statistical noise to me.
what is the total nat gas in inventory and how does that compare
to the mean for the last 5 yrs ??
One cold month in winter could burn up more than that 160 build
from july

[BigTex]

Maybe...maybe not Mr. BigTex smartypants.

Even if it wasn't Devon, if I had to pick only one that's a pretty good one...at the right price, of course.

[oilluber]

Maybe...maybe not Mr. BigTex smartypants.

Even if it wasn't Devon, if I had to pick only one that's a pretty good one...at the right price, of course.

ECA should be good long term hold.

[ROCKMAN]

You bet Tex. That's why I was thrilled when oil dropped. Devon et al fell about 25 - 30%. As others have said the fundamentals haven't changed. If the gas stocks were good (according to the vast majority of the analysts) at the highs they should be that much at the 10 month or so lows. I'm going to seriously consider working the high/lows over the next several years as I think oil will continue to be volatile: cash out after a good run up and then wait for the next buying opportunity. The big question is, of course, how many such cycles will we see in the coming years. If I had played this game from the beginning of the year my yield would have been well above 25%.

[dsula]

U.S. gas production is up 9% this year - a rate of increase not seen since 1984 - with most of that gain coming from natural-gas shale, particularly the Barnett Shale

http://seekingalpha.com/article/93046-n ... wl_sidebar

Could somebody comment on this. Is this significant? I'm not sure what to make of this.
This articel is a few days old, but I wasn't able to find it already discussed in the forums. In case I missed it, let me know.

[joeltrout]

I think this is just the beginning for natural gas.

It seems every 6 months another MAJOR natural gas shale play is discovered.

When leases go from $5/ac. and 12.5% royalty up to $30,000/ac and 25% royalty literally within a month; you know something is up.

joeltrout

[Carlhole]

U.S. gas production is up 9% this year - a rate of increase not seen since 1984 - with most of that gain coming from natural-gas shale, particularly the Barnett Shale

http://seekingalpha.com/article/93046-n ... wl_sidebar

Could somebody comment on this. Is this significant? I'm not sure what to make of this.
This articel is a few days old, but I wasn't able to find it already discussed in the forums. In case I missed it, let me know.

OilFinder2 has discussed this at length in his posts. Search for those under his username.

It's true. Estimates are for a 30% increase in US natural gas supplies over the next 20 years.

There are shale deposits all over the world that also have not been exploited. The Europeans are very intersted in trying to duplicate the results that have obtained in the US.

[OilFinder2]

U.S. gas production is up 9% this year - a rate of increase not seen since 1984 - with most of that gain coming from natural-gas shale, particularly the Barnett Shale

http://seekingalpha.com/article/93046-n ... wl_sidebar

Could somebody comment on this. Is this significant? I'm not sure what to make of this.
This articel is a few days old, but I wasn't able to find it already discussed in the forums. In case I missed it, let me know.

There have already been multiple threads on this. Might want to start with these two:

--> Chesapeake Energy CEO: US soon to be awash in natural gas <--
--> Natural Gas: 50% greater reserves than once thought? <--

Then there are threads on some of the individual shales:

--> Woodford Shale <--
--> Haynesvillle Shale <--
--> Utica Shale <--
--> Marcellus Shale <--