Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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Veritas wrote:I looked over the graphs at that page but its mostly gobbledy-gook for a simpleton (read: non phD math student) like me.
Veritas wrote:The simple question is WHY would anyone presuppose that production will peak when half the reserves have been depleted? I can see no logical reason for this relationship! Yet it seems to be the basis of the bell curve - if the area under the peak has to be equal on both sides, there isn't much room for deviance in how that right hand side will look.
Veritas wrote:The "plateau" concept only works if we can say that there will be more - significantly more oil produced after the peak in production than prior to it.
Veritas wrote:I would really like to get clarity on this):
1. Difference between a bell curve and a plateau is immense in terms of the amount of time to adjust to less available oil, and the measures necessary to adapt.
2. The only way the post-peak could be a plateau is if there are significantly more reserves produced after the peak than before it. That is, the peak in production does NOT coincide with the production of 50% of all available oil.
Do we have any reason to believe that peak production does coincide with half of all oil being produced (or consumed, whichever is the right term)? If we don't, does that mean that the bell curve theory is disproven (or at least a significant uncertainty no more probable than a plateau)?
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