skeptik wrote:zoidberg wrote: why not devastate Europe, China's and Japan's economy by smashing or allowing to be smashed Mid-east oil facilities?
Because that would be the dumbest thing imaginable as far as the US economy is concerned. It all connects. The name of the game is globalisation. Where do you think Intel makes its chips these days?
http://www.technewsworld.com/story/56510.htmlThe entire premise of this thread is rather dumb. Foreign policy cannot be reduced to a simple binary choice of fold or all in. Real life is bit more complicated than that and the required responses more subtle and finessed, despite the American publics (and it's Presidents!) preference for a simplisitic binary good guy/bad guy, fold/all in view of the world.
<shrug> It is rather simplistic. I feel the choice boils it down to the essentials. The US can either accept decline gracefully and pull back(fold) or use its temporary military advantages to extend its dominance over the best, last oil supplies and move to neutralize threats to its control(all in). The US cant partially move to neutralize Iran; Iran has been quite clear an attack will be met with their full capabilities. Even the fully inadequate attempts to impose sanctions against them shows that they're fully willing to damage other economies, even those of their allies to purse their goals, and that things like sanctions are largely ineffective, little more than maintaining the status quo. And status quo to the US means a death by a thousands cuts and sure defeat. Nobody really believes more of the same ideas like the "surge" will change their strategic situation one ioata. Its just something the Bushies like because it shoves the big decisions to the next administration. I am influenced by Nixon's madman strategy. I realize it was only for psychological purposes, but I dont know if its been entirely dropped or entirely a show. Maybe I've been psy-oped myself, but it seems entirely more plausible the worse things get for the US. I dont know who Bush supporters will support in a true national emergency, but I have low expectations.
In a post peak world globalisation shrinks. International trade will exist of course, but its relative importance to the economy will fall dramatically. It becomes worse than a zero sum game. There will less every year, for the forseeable future. This is the essence of the die-off scenario; a probable consequence of peak, do you agree? If you dont then yes, this is dumb.
If however, you acknowledge die off as a significant possibility, then the great powers
must move to ensure they get as much as possible of the resources left, or else they face something worse than invasion, or relative decline,...they face complete dissolution as their economies collapse and political control evaporates. They will become failed states and will not reform, if ever, until a new equilibrium is reached. Do you need to know about carrying capacity?
Globalisation is already feeling a some strangulation as transport costs are imposing de facto tariff barriers on everyone by everyone for everything.