Who goes without oil?

[Spanktron9]

First of all, thank you to this community for a reasoned (usually) discourse on this most important topic.

I have been reading, studying, lurking on this and other boards for some time, but have yet to come up with a clear answer when I explain the fundamentals of supply/demand to people with regards to peak oil. The question I get is- "If we are using 86 million barrels, and we are only producing 85 million, who is going without oil?"

Am I correct in answering a combination of:
1) Stockpile depletion
2) Demand destruction
3) Shortages and brownouts in various locales around the world

?

If that isn't the best answer, can someone enlighten me?

[jlw61]

First of all, thank you to this community for a reasoned (usually) discourse on this most important topic.

I have been reading, studying, lurking on this and other boards for some time, but have yet to come up with a clear answer when I explain the fundamentals of supply/demand to people with regards to peak oil. The question I get is- "If we are using 86 million barrels, and we are only producing 85 million, who is going without oil?"

Am I correct in answering a combination of:
1) Stockpile depletion
2) Demand destruction
3) Shortages and brownouts in various locales around the world

?

If that isn't the best answer, can someone enlighten me?

If we're only short 1 million barrels of oil a day, the price will go up until the demand is only 85 million or less a day. In which case the people least able to afford it (3rd world countries) will lose out and #3 kicks in for those locals to some extent but can include some really bad things (starvation, etc) depending on their reliance on modern agriculture and imported products.

However, once depletion sets in hard then each year will find more people priced out of the oil market. If it's slow, the transition will not be terrible and will give a chance for alternatives to kick in and life styles to change. If it's fast we're talking war, starvation and crashing economies (think Mad Max).

Basically, the poor are affected first but eventually everyone will be affected due to the inflationary effects that are being placed on the entire world's economy. Inflation will hit power, food, fuel, safe drinking water, and nearly every item that you buy in the stores. Eventually shortages of the aformentioned items will become the norm because depletion will be faster than lifestyle changes.

[pup55]

I will give you three answers, as to the question of "who is going without":

a. We've been drawing down our inventories, globally and in the US
b. The poor nations have been doing without oil
c. The really smart nations have been conserving

According to the recent BP review, the current "gap" between production and consumption is about 4 million barrels per day.

The obvious solution as to how this "gap" is being filled is to use up some of the stock we had on hand. I say "had" because globally, inventories have been drawn down over the last couple of years a lot. Obviously, this can only go on for so long before that little supply cushion runs out.

The second solution is: poor nations around the world, especially those in Africa, and in the underdeveloped nations of Asia such as the Phillipines and Bangladesh, have gone to a state of practically no oil at all. The "global shortage" thread is a good resource for this.

The third solution is, pretty big petroleum users, such as Germany and Japan, are busily retooling their economies to get along with less oil. According to the latest BP review, these two nations are down something like 5-8% in oil use, year-over-year. So, they are smarter than we are. They have convinced their business leaders and general population to cut back on oil usage, whereas we are looking for technical solutions that will mainly let us keep going like we have all along, without sacrificing.

So it is all pretty simple. The combination of these things above have roughly balanced out the gap between supply and demand, temporarily.

Of course, there is a limit to how long all of this will go on.

[Spanktron9]

Thanks for the cogent responses. So it basically as I thought. I didn't realize the daily shortfall was that large though!

[jlw61]

Thanks for the cogent responses. So it basically as I thought. I didn't realize the daily shortfall was that large though!

And if Pup says it is, you can take it to the bank.

[SoylentGreen]

the countries with no natural resources and no large military force.