OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

[GASMON]

OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.

Thats what the BP June 2007 statistical review (2006 figures) states the Reserves to production ratios are for Oil Gas Coal.

http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview

Go to Downloads, statistical review 2007, select either pdf or slide pack.

Very interesting, 48 page review, reserves, production & consumption figures, graphs, etc. Country by country. Coal figures most scary, I thought we had 300+ years left.

Oil R/P page 10, Gas R/P page 26, Coal age 32 (grey line).

Factor in Chindia, well, 'nuff said !!!!

Gasmon

[Twilight]

I am sure I do not need to remind you, but it is worth repeating for the sake of completeness and for the benefit of people new to resource depletion, that the R/P ratio by itself is meaningless as the production rate is never constant.

As we are well aware, our resources will last considerably longer than the R/P ratios suggest, but at a declining rate of production, eventually giving a curve of equal area (the Ultimate).

[GASMON]

I am sure I do not need to remind you, but it is worth repeating for the sake of completeness and for the benefit of people new to resource depletion, that the R/P ratio by itself is meaningless as the production rate is never constant.

As we are well aware, our resources will last considerably longer than the R/P ratios suggest, but at a declining rate of production, eventually giving a curve of equal area (the Ultimate).

Very True. Now I'm no statistician, but look at figures for Known reserves against consumption. Divide one by the other & figure is nearly same as production. OK, we use (nearly) all we produce. The R/P graph page 10 seems pretty constant at around 40 years for the period 1986-2006.

Its RESERVES & CONSUMPTION that really matter (the figures are in the report). We have to find NEW BIG fields soon, or Chindia will get that line on the deck pretty damm quick.

Gasmon

[halcyon]

It's more than that.

It's Production Rate Capability (under and above ground constrained) vs world consumption rate (growth) that matter.

It's all about flow rates.

Reserves mean nothing.

Oil in the ground cannot be consumed.

Repeat after me: all reserves are good for are in the oil company balance sheets (ie. for economists and dumb investors).

[GASMON]

It's all about flow rates. Reserves mean nothing.

Today, yes its all about flow rates, from a (guestimated) finite reserve. today reserve indeed means nothing.

In 40.5 years time (or less), remaining reserves will be more important than flow rates.

Do you think OPEC will up production & reduce prices ? I dont.

If it were your oil well, would you?. I wouldn't.

$124 / Barrel as I write. Doubt ever <$110 again, $200 soon.

Will the R/P graph remain at 40 years over the next 20 ?, doubt it.

The next 2 - 5 years will tell. Like to see BP's report for 2012.

Gasmon