sch_peakoiler wrote:EnergyUnlimited wrote:I think, you are still a victim of exponential growth paradigm.
I think you just do not understand what I am doing. But thats Ok. My questions just do not seem to make a system, do they? they do.
I want to quantify the basics of nuclear energy. thats it. Tanada started a FISSION FAQ here. But he explained isotope basics and then had enough of this - the FAQ is unfinished big time. So there are no numbers connecting WHEN with HOW MUCH on nuclear power. Only the assurance of Dezakin that we have enough uranium in the crust and can scale up the mining to any scale needed.
So if anybody says: then we will go thorium and this is an endless supply, I want to know WHEN and HOW MUCH. just for me. To understand the basics.
I cant quantify what economics will do, or weather people will all decide that investing in panda fur purses are a better bet than uranium mines in a tight market. All we can really point to here is production numbers of mines open today, previous growth rates during demand acceleration (which I believe was substantial based on the growth of the nuclear power industry) and the energy requirements of mining. We can easily state that uranium is very energy positive in any time regime in the next several millinia because the Rossing mine data is very clear.
1 unit of energy in mining 300ppm ore from Rossing mine yields enough uranium to make 500 units of electric energy in light water reactors. With the rather crude, but reasonable estimate that energy demands of mining are inversely proportional to the ore grade, we can exploit some 1 trillion tons of uranium at an energy gain of 15-30, more than some large petrochemical projects, and thats enough to last 20000 light water reactors 250000 years. This is simple arithmetic and I have very high confidence in this.
The mine production numbers for this year, next year, next decade, I couldn't say. I'd guess that the market should respond, but maybe it wont and capital will flow towards something else, or some other political problem will get in the way, and we can argue all day about weather mines will produce x% more uranium to meet market demand. I think they will because people stand to make a lot of money if they do, but sure, they might not for a host of above ground issues seperate from engineering and energy.
But this doesnt detract from uranium having the capacity to be a resource into the distant future.