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The Energy Information Administration (EIA), created by Congress in 1977, is a statistical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy. Our mission is to provide policy-independent data, forecasts, and analyses to promote sound policy making, efficient markets, and public understanding regarding energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
The Department of Energy Organization Act (Public Law 95-91) allows EIA's processes and products to be independent from review by Executive Branch officials; specifically Section 205(d) says:
"The Administrator shall not be required to obtain the approval of any other officer or employee of the Department in connection with the collection or analysis of any information; nor shall the Administrator be required, prior to publication, to obtain the approval of any other officer or employee of the United States with respect to the substance of any statistical or forecasting technical reports which he has prepared in accordance with law."
US Official: Speculation Fuels Oil Price
16 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — A top Energy Department official says market speculation may be adding as much as $12 to the price of crude oil and that prices may not yet have peaked.
The head of the federal Energy Information Administration, Guy Caruso, told a Senate hearing that supply and demand would suggest a price of about $90 a barrel. Prices fluctuated around $102 a barrel Tuesday after surging to a record $104 a barrel on Monday.
Caruso told a Senate hearing that market speculation, the decline of the dollar and money moving into commodities have added to the upward pressure on crude oil prices.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
March 4, 2008 11:02 a.m.
By Siobhan Hughes
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Energy Information Administration's top official on Tuesday said that speculators were having an effect on oil prices, though the effect was difficult to quantify.
"There's clearly been a surge in moneys coming in to commodities markets, including energy, which has had some upward effect on the price above the trendline," EIA Administrator Guy Caruso said in response to a question during a Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing.
"Something's clearly going on," he said. "It's difficult to say whether that number is $5 or $10," he said, but said he would "strongly disagree" that it is $50.
EIA Projects 'Real-World Crude' At $57/Bbl In 2016
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
March 4, 2008 10:19 a.m.
By Siobhan Hughes
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Energy Information Administration on Tuesday projected that the price of so-called "real-world crude" oil would decline to $57 a barrel in 2016 as expanded investment in exploration and development brings new supplies to the market.
Guy Caruso, the administrator of the EIA, provided the estimate in testimony before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
He said that the price of natural gas would decline through 2016, also as new supplies enter the market. After 2016, he projects that real natural gas prices would rise to $6.56 per thousand cubic feet in 2030.
He also said that the consumption of biofuels would rise to 29.7 billion gallons in 2030, or about 11.3% of total motor vehicle fuel, following the enactment last year of a law that mandated more ethanol be blended into the fuel supply.
americandream wrote:Wasn't the free market meant to be the most efficient model for the allocation of resources? If this particular corner is in effect inefficiently working, what does it say of the entire model?
americandream wrote:Either oil is depleting or there's a con afoot! When are the media going to do their job in this so-called free society we inhabit and inform us of the facts...so that we may exercise our vote in an INFORMED MANNER!
americandream wrote:When are the media going to do their job in this so-called free society we inhabit and inform us of the facts...so that we may exercise our vote in an INFORMED MANNER!
ENERGY UPDATE: Oil Prices May Drop In Near Term, Then Soar Again
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) gave Congress today, March 4, a mixed outlook for oil prices, saying they may drop in the next few years then rise again possibly as high as $185 a barrel. Appearing before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, EIA Administrator Guy Caruso presented an updated energy outlook since Congress approved an energy bill in December that included new fuel efficiency standards for light vehicles and energy efficiency standards for appliances.
For the short term, Caruso said the updated analysis shows that real world crude oil prices would decline from current levels to $57 a barrel, in 2006 dollars, by 2016 or about $68 in nominal or actual dollars. Caruso said the current high prices – nudging up to a record price near $104 a barrel Monday -- would produce expanded investment in exploration and development, bringing new supplies to the market in the short run.
After 2016, however, the average real price of crude oil would go to $70 a barrel in constant 2006 dollars or about $113 a barrel in actual dollars by 2030, according to the outlook. Caruso said his agency recognizes the uncertainties in the energy markets in the long run and therefore projected a "high price case" where oil prices could soar to $185 a barrel in actual dollars. His overall report to the committee was welcomed by Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chairman Jeff Bingaman (D-New Mexico) and ranking member Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico) who both gleaned good news from it.
Senator Byron Dorgan (North Dakota) said, "I think there's some good news in this report" but added no one knows what will happen in 24 months, let alone 24 years. He also blamed market speculators for driving up oil prices, a point Caruso acknowledged as a factor that perhaps was adding "some upward pressure" on prices.
Guy Caruso may be a tool, but we are #1 in the world for "oil news" according to Google.Not OGJ or CNN or ABC News... Peakoil.com
Caruso expects oil priced at $104 to bring on new supplies. Didn't we hear that as it past $40, $50, $70, and $90?
DantesPeak wrote:Caruso expects oil priced at $104 to bring on new supplies. Didn't we hear that as it past $40, $50, $70, and $90?
shortonoil wrote:Aaron said:Guy Caruso may be a tool, but we are #1 in the world for "oil news" according to Google.Not OGJ or CNN or ABC News... Peakoil.com
Well .... when you put it that way ......... maybe we are important!
Thanks Aaron, from all of us.
DantesPeak said:Caruso expects oil priced at $104 to bring on new supplies. Didn't we hear that as it past $40, $50, $70, and $90?
It is amazing that anyone would still listen to this same old absurdity. It just shows how uninformed the general public is about PO, or just about oil in general. That is our biggest hurdle in getting the message out there; without a doubt!
somebody, somewhere must eventually take physical delivery of that crude
March 4, 2008
Annual Energy Outlook
March 04, 2008
ADMINISTRATOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
SENATE ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES
ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK
EIA has raised the reference case path for world oil prices in AEO2008, although the upward adjustment is smaller than the last major adjustment, introduced in AEO2006. In the AEO2008 reference case, real world crude oil prices (defined as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma, in 2006 dollars) decline gradually from current levels to $57 per barrel in 2016 ($68 per barrel in nominal dollars), as expanded investment in exploration and development brings new supplies to the world market. After 2016, real prices begin to rise (Figures 1 and 2), as demand continues to grow and higher cost supplies are brought to market. In 2030, the average real price of crude oil is $70 per barrel in 2006 dollars, or about $113 per barrel in nominal dollars. In developing its oil price outlook, EIA explicitly considered four factors: (1) growth in world liquids consumption, (2) the outlook for conventional oil production in countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), (3) growth in unconventional liquids production, and (4) OPEC behavior. With the forces driving demand outside the United States as strong or stronger than previously expected and with global supply projections somewhat weaker, trends in total world liquids production are similar to those in the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007) reference case but the oil prices are higher.
Energy Production and Imports
Liquids and Other Petroleum Products. U.S. crude oil production grows from 5.1 million barrels per day in 2006 to a peak of 6.3 million barrels per day in 2018, primarily due to increased production from the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and from the expansion of enhanced oil recovery operations in onshore areas supported by higher crude oil prices. Domestic production subsequently declines to 5.6 million barrels per day in 2030, as increased production from new smaller discoveries is inadequate to offset the declines in large fields in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico (Figure Total domestic liquids supply, including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, refinery processing gains, and other refinery inputs (e.g., ethanol, biodiesel, BTL, and liquids from coal) grows from 8.3 million barrels per day in 2006 to 10.5 million barrels per day in 2030. The net import share of total liquids supplied, including crude oil and refined products, drops from 60 percent in 2006 to less than 51 percent in 2022, and then increases to 54 percent in 2030 as crude oil imports grow rapidly at the end of the projection to meet liquids demand (Figure 9). Net crude oil imports in 2030 are 11.1 million barrels per day in 2030 and net product imports (including net ethanol imports) are 1.3 million barrels per day in 2030.
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