THE US Dollar Thread (merged)

[Grasshopper]

I agree, Smiley, democracy can't work properly with foreign interference beyond supporting the democratic process. Even comments by the press or leaders of neighboring countries can make a negative impact, let alone financially supporting one candidate.
I was referring to posts in this thread more than the mainstream media regarding rhetoric and half-truths, it seemed to be heavily pro-Castro, and anti-American, more so than necessary, considering Cuba is a dictatorship. Being a Canadian, I could travel freely to Cuba, although I have not, and I have friends who have done so, they report a poor country with people just trying to get by.
I think fewer people are escaping by boat now, possibly due to stricter enforecement, but possibly due a better situation than before.

[Ferretlover]

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/hopu/hopu.asp

The Heating Oil and Propane Update will be published on Thursday, January 19 after 5:00 p.m

Thursday is the 20th, duh. Plus you normally post on Monday so because you took one day off you have to post two or three days late?

[Ferretlover]

I'm sorry if this has been gone over before-

Specifically, I'm wondering if anyone has had any good experiences investing small amounts of cash ($1 to 10k) in any sort of general commodity or non-US currency fund. Are there diversified, respectable funds out there for people without so much to invest?

[combatraccoon]

I don't know about a fund specifically but in terms of keeping small amounts of savings out of the US dollar you can:

open an deposit account with Everbank (everbank.com) in any of several different currencies for a minimum deposit of $2500 - they also offer CDs that track various currencies based on commodity exports

you can also open an account for $2000 with interactivebrokers.com and buy and sell currency as well as stocks on foreign exchanges such as the Toronto Stock exchange - canadianenergyviewpoint.com, for example, offers an investment portfolio in Canadian energy companies

if you have amounts smaller than a couple thousand dollars and still don't want to hold USD than you can buy precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum - kitco.com is one place to check out for buying precious metals.

Many people think the dollar may strengthen in the next few months - and many people think it will continue to weaken over the next few months. But almost all agree that the dollar is headed lower over the long term.

I am not a financial advisor and the above suggestion should not be construed as financial advice.

Best of luck!

Com_Bat_Rac_Coon

[lostech]

thanks, I'll check out those links

[Ferretlover]

I was wondering if anyone out there could give a rough guide of what to expect when the dollar eventually collapses. The impression that I get is that there will be a global recession and the middle class will be hit very hard.

What I was wondering though is that are there other economic factors that would determine the severity of a collapse? For example if there was not such high levels of debt and high oil prices would the impact have been less severe?

I'm also interested in what would happen to other aspects of the economy. Are we looking at hyper-inflation, housing market crash, banks collapsing? Also would this totally collapse other countries economies or would they be able to take measures to shield themseves from severe damage?

Does this mean that my rent for my house in the UK will soar as a result of a crash or that food prices will skyrocket? I don't expect anyone to have all the answers or some kind of magical crystal ball as there are a lot of factors at play here. It's just that it would be nice to know what to expect.

[BabyPeanut]

I was wondering if anyone out there could give a rough guide of what to expect when the dollar eventually collapses.

Worthless dollars.

[Permanently_Baffled]

Cheap disney holidays wahoooo!

[threadbear]

Stu, Your rent SHOULD go down, but rent prices are somewhat more resilient than the actual price of homes. They don't seem to have quite the same range.

As far as inflation goes--people make the mistake of confusing what we're entering into, with what we've had before. If energy prices go way up, that means that everything dependant on shipment and derived from oil, goes up correspondingly. This leaves less money for things like mortgage payments, at a time when people are leveraged to the hilt with other debt, as well. Speculation gets sucked right out of the market. Much depends on your interest rates, and your unemployment numbers.

Be grateful you haven't been sucked into the great home ownership quagmire, if you haven't owned before. So many are going to be so sorry they were.--And it's a global problem.

Hyper-inflation? No. Not unless wages start skyrocketing too, and that's not going to happen. But higher prices--yup. Food should be more expensive. Europe won't see the same devastation that the US (and probably Canada) will see. They're certainly not completely shielded but it's not likely to be as nuts for you.

http://www.b4-thebell.com/index.php?showtopic=6688

I follow the above board for expert analysis, free of the typical brokerage stupido jargon. Besides being smart, these people are really funny. Machinehead, Hiding Bear. Excellent.

[Kingcoal]

It might sound arogant of me, but the dollar is so entrenched as a reserve currency, I wouldn't expect any shocks. However, the world may go through a slow, drawn out change to the Euro to be used for reserves. If that is the case, we in the US might find ourselves having to "get the Euros," just like most other nations have been "getting the dollars" since WW2. Since the US economy is based on borowing dollars out of thin air, we would be in for a rude awakening. No more borrowing out of thin air.

[MonteQuest]

I was wondering if anyone out there could give a rough guide of what to expect when the dollar eventually collapses.

stu,

Read my money thread on the peak oil forum. In my first post, I made a little cliffs notes to the most relevant pages in that monster thread. If it doesn't answer your questions, post back here and I will try to fill in the blanks, ok? Also Peak oil: The Slow Decline gives a good scenario.

MQ

[Ferretlover]

The US is forcing Iraq to trade oil in Dollars again and deposit the dollars with the fed. Don't expect the rally to last log, in the past three days big institutions, Russia, and maybe even China unloaded large amounts of US dollar.

"The Iraqi central bank has built up five billion dollars in reserves in recent months which have been deposited with the US Federal Reserve, a top US treasury official said Tuesday." link There is talk that Russia is moving towards petro-euro, any news?

[bruin]

The dollar is also helped by Bush proposing cut backs to spending. Also, Greenspan indicated at least 3 more interest rate hikes to 3.25%.

[Pops]

I agree, it is our new budget: forget education, veterans and old folks – but make sure the tax cuts for the 99.9th percentile become permanent.

[MarkL]

..

[maverickdoc]

This is probably another reason why the dollar stopped its slide.

The Financial Times link has rolled over into their archieves and requires registration but the quote from the article gives the idea.

Yes this is a very good article.


"The dollar is also helped by Bush proposing cut backs to spending"
Even if he gets the budget through as is, it will tack on a $427 billion + $80 billion more (maybe even more with his social security plan and Medicare drug benefits packet).

I highly doubt he will get it through with out some more pork being added on. Bottom line we can expect at least a $550billion extra tacked on the budget deficit.


Just look at go:

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

[smiley]

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

$7,629,245,507,947.33 on 02/10/2005
$7,379,052,696,330.32 on 09/30/2004
---------------------------------------------- -
$250,192,811,617.01

That means that Bush has managed to spend over 250 billion dollar in the first 4 months of this fiscal year!

I don't think he can keep this year's deficit under 600 billion.

[maverickdoc]

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

$7,629,245,507,947.33 on 02/10/2005
$7,379,052,696,330.32 on 09/30/2004
---------------------------------------------- -
$250,192,811,617.01

That means that Bush has managed to spend over 250 billion dollar in the first 4 months of this fiscal year!

I don't think he can keep this year's deficit under 600 billion.

Real question is how long will the Japs and the Chinese keep bailing us out ?

[Evltre]

Real question is how long will the Japs and the Chinese keep bailing us out ?

Sooner or later they will have to cut their losses - surely they won't hang in there for ever?

[tmazanec1]

Well, it has dropped a bit the last few days, at least compared to the Euro.