THE 'How much oil is remaining?' Thread (merged)

[lexicon]

Someone should tell these folk to check out Hall's latest EROI report before posting such nonsense...

Charlie Hall's latest research shows the EROI of existing oil and gas is about 25 to one, but that NEW oil is approaching 1 to 1, which means that the discovery of new oil may be irrelevant after 2015 to 2020.

When asked about how the future might unfold, he mentioned that he thought that people will not be willing to make the capital investments needed to build solar, wind, and so on when oil was costing them $10 per gallon or more.

Here...


sustainablescale

Do you have a more direct link to that quote? I can't find it and I'd like to read more.

link

Thanks roccman. It scares me to imagine where civilization will be 10 years from now.

[Gandalf_the_White]

At this point in the evolution of the issue I have to count that article as almost pure disinformation. The world only produces 84 ish million barrels of oil a day now and they are talking about the SU military needing 312 million barrels a day? Per year I might believe, Us consumption is about 20 million barrels a day. At any rate EROEI (or EROI if you must) is the lynchpin. I really doubt that the current EROI of oil is 25 to 1. If it is it is only the fading afterglow of the light sweet crude bonanza. Once that becomes a smoldering wyck the world will remember what darkness is, probably long before.

On the point of disinformation and misinformation there is always alot of it around anything that could effect the economy or consumer sentiment. Like the supposed OPEC output hike in November, I have heard plus 360k barrels pe day and minus 340k barrels per day by different sources. Well, let me tell you given the current price implications if OPEC can't lay two million barrels per day on the market we are toast. Soon enough people will begin to see that OPEC cannot raise production anymore. That creeping uneasy feeling should set in right around May when oil is approaching $120 per barrel.

It always amazes me the hush that falls over the so called 'independent' media when certain things happen. Like oh the Dow giving up 10% of it's value in two months. In any real world that would be big news, but in the world of media mis/disinformation it's different. I have observed a few strategies employed by the media in avoiding the peak oil juggernaut,

1) just don't talk about it
2) redirect
3) smokescreen
4) hire the rabble rousers

As long as we are willing to keep biting at the carrot on the stick life goes on as it always has at least a little while longer.

[kadoomsoon]

The colorado oil shale effort went for 10 years, counting all money invested vs oil produced it averaged out to 200 dollars a barrel or something like that..

[Graeme]

Plenty of oil left in the global tank

The “peak oil has already happened” argument was partly based on the fact that global oil production, on International Energy Agency figures, had never been higher than the 86.13m barrels a day of July 2006.

That, however, is no longer true. World oil output in October was 86.5m barrels a day, 1m more than in October last year and 3m more than in October 2005. It edged up to 86.55m last month.

Even if it was the case that global oil production had been flat over the past couple of years, however, it would prove very little.

Why? During this time the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) cut output and only recently started to increase exports again. Less than five years ago Opec was happy with an oil price in the $22-$28 a barrel range. Now it is content with $90. Opec increased output quotas by 500,000 barrels a day this autumn but refused to do so again earlier this month.

Production in many oil-producing countries is constrained, not by geology but by politics. Iraq is producing only two-thirds what it did on the eve of the first Gulf war in 1990. That was no golden age, production running below potential because of weak investment during the Saddam era. Iran is producing well below potential.

The most important reason for rejecting the “peak oil is here” argument, however, is that current production reflects investment decisions taken years ago, when prices were much lower. It was only just over three years ago that oil rose above $40 a barrel. A few years earlier it was $10-$11. Higher prices will bring more output on stream.

Demand has responded to higher prices, but not enough. The International Energy Agency’s worry is not that oil has reached a peak – it expects a 50% rise by 2030 – but that demand will rise faster than supply. We will see how much impact next year’s economic slowdown has.

In a speech to mark the bicentenary of the Geological Society, “Peak Oil – a metaphor for anxiety”, BP’s Michael Daly predicted that we would be debating when the oil might run out in 100 years’ time. Long before then, thanks to high prices, alternative energy sources, climate concerns and technological advances, we will have probably passed the peak – but for oil demand rather than supply.

timesonline

[Graeme]

Fears of attack grow amid Iraq's booming oil production

Iraq’s ailing economy has been boosted by the sudden rise in crude oil production, which has outstripped pre-war levels for the first time.

According to a report released yesterday by the International Energy Agency, the country is producing 2.3 million barrels of oil a day, up from 1.9 million at the outbreak of war in 2003 and substantially higher than January this year, when it dipped to a low of 1.7 million barrels.

timesonline

[Revi]

I guess everything's fine then. Great. I guess 86.55 is enough for everybody. It will probably be over 90 mil/day by next year. The market has worked it out. Hurray!

[Valdemar]

I thought that figure was revised down anyway. Why's it being held up high like some sacred scripture from God stating "Peak Oil is bullshit, carry on, nothing to see"?

[Heineken]

I've always considered the PO numbers game to be pointless, which is one reason why I haven't shown much interest in engaging in it.

The exact timing is irrelevant. The consequences won't be. Once they really start to roll, we'll know it.

It takes a lot to kill a Terminator, but it can and will be killed.

I think the consequences of PO are just "peeking" over the horizon now. If we haven't technically even reached the peak and are already seeing such destabilization, just think what things'll be like when the downslope is entered well and fully.

[SILENTTODD]

I have always like your admired Graeme, but I will only believe you on this point if you can show in the future verified statistics the world brought more oil to market than it did in the summer of '06.

[like_the_dinosaurs]

You also have to look at the production figure itself. I think it's the oilwatch monthly but i'm not a 100% sure that started calculating bio-fuels into the final figure which for obvious reasons should not happen.

[TheDude]

World oil supply rose 55 kb/d in November to 86.5 mb/d as output recovery in Mexico, China and Brazil offset lower OPEC supply.

[cube]

...
The exact timing is irrelevant. The consequences won't be.
...

I think some people here need to tattoo that to the back of their eyelids so they don't forget it.

[ThunderChunky]

I have always like your admired Graeme, but I will only believe you on this point if you can show in the future verified statistics the world brought more oil to market than it did in the summer of '06.

Do you have verified statistics that it didn't? If not, then you need to be agnostic on the issue.

Here's the IEA report: http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/13nov07full.pdf

Here's some the Dec 14th report, I haven't looked at it much yet (I just found it and am editing it in): http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/high.pdf

I did see "World oil supply rose 55 kb/d in November to 86.5 mb/d"

I think the point is that there is a perception that chicken littles are jumping the gun and claiming we are already at peak without sufficient data points.

On the other hand, saying there is "plenty of oil left" without sufficient data is equally bad.

[Gazzatrone]

Lest we not forget the thorny issue of EROEI.

Knowing there is lots of something around is one thing. Being able to reach it is quite another.

[Sys1]

The longer it takes to reach peak oil, the faster will be the depletion. It is just mathematic.
Does someone remember a graphic showing exponential drilling in Saudi Arabia while "production" standed still?
Moreover, as oil get expensive, the remaining extraction is redirected to OPEC countries instead of beeing exported to USA or Europe.
Put China and India growth in the equation, and it's enough for me to claim that we are virtually on the right side of Hubbert mountain.

Since 2005, i think world economy will collapse before 2010. This is the point. Useless to speak endlessly about a supposed increased of 500k barrels a day (by the way, are you sure those 500k are light sweet crude...? As said Gazzatrone, EROEI is crucial.)

[thor]

Meanwhile oil bounces around $90 showing no signs of dropping to $10 a barrel like we were used to. When oil drops to $10 a barrel then I'm a true believer.

[yesplease]

I have always like your admired Graeme, but I will only believe you on this point if you can show in the future verified statistics the world brought more oil to market than it did in the summer of '06.

Ease up on the messenger and go investigate the message yourself meng.

Lest we not forget the thorny issue of EROEI.

Knowing there is lots of something around is one thing. Being able to reach it is quite another.

Shoot, we'll just use nuclear power in order to extract all that crap from the tar sands/oil shale. Even if it isn't energy positive, because lord knows we have plenty of fissile material to waste. Honestly, I'm surprised we're not growing pine trees in Iraq for E85, but I suppose there is a limit to the magnitude of waste we can create.

[KevO]

I thought that figure was revised down anyway. Why's it being held up high like some sacred scripture from God stating "Peak Oil is bullshit, carry on, nothing to see"?

Christmas

[Heineken]

Lest we not forget the thorny issue of EROEI.

Knowing there is lots of something around is one thing. Being able to reach it [economically] is quite another.

Right. There are so many critical factors like this one that enter in. Such as demand growth in producing countries.

The friction between oil demand and supply is starting approximately now. It can only increase with time; first the gears heat up, then they clash, and finally they are blasted right out of the gearbox.

[killJOY]

The peak oil movement has lost.

The argument in that article is articulate, complex and believable. And people want to believe it.

Now, I don't believe it -- it's full of the "reserves fallacy" and "running out" fallacy -- but it makes clear that business as usual is going to continue and there's nothing we can do about it.

As far as what this means -- I haven't the slightest idea anymore.

I've studied peak oil since December of 2003, and every hope I've had for broad enlightenment and, most importantly, mitigation, has been dashed to hell.

I can't even bring the topic up outside a few people anymore.