THE Brent Crude Thread (merged)

[MonteQuest]

Appears Gasoline supply will be sufficient for the US driving season. Probably have to wait until next year to see the spikes unless there is a debt contraction in the economey.

Or a hurricane in the Gulf or a geopolitical event. Iran?

[strider3700]

We've had two great weeks and predict one more this week and based on that we can state that there is no issue with gasoline this summer. We'll just be at the serious shortage area just as summer driving season ends.

Right. Think about a hurricane, a strike, a lost tanker, a terrorist attack, a major malfunction at a large refinery, a larger then expected increase in driving. Any one of the above has the cability of leaving us screwed.

The cornucopians are talking again.

[Ferretlover]

Flip in Brent structure points to drop in oil stocks Wed Jul 18, 2007 By Jane Merriman - Analysis
LONDON (Reuters) - Brent oil futures have shifted into backwardation, a market condition that points to expectations of a tighter supply/demand picture that could shrink plentiful crude stocks.
The return of backwardation -- where crude for nearby delivery costs more than crude further forward -- could provide a signal for OPEC that crude oil supplies are no longer as abundant, potentially paving the way for a production increase. "With backwardation, the market is starting to price in a very large crude oil draw," said Olivier Jakob, of oil consultants Petromatrix.
"I think OPEC is waiting to see if those big draws materialize or not." These supply concerns helped on July 16 to drive Brent crude to within 25 cents of its record high of $78.65 a barrel.
The backwardation may not last, but while it does it removes a financial incentive to store oil. "The important thing is that the storage play doesn't work any more," said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital. "You can no longer lock in money by holding crude in inventory for trading purposes." …
entire article at: http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersE ... 4120070718

[dissident]

Let's wait and see just how much extra crude OPEC can pump. Saudi Arabia is always pointing to its ample supplies of heavy sour crude that nobody wants. Seems inconsistent with them holding back.

[oilluber]

Flip in Brent structure points to drop in oil stocks Wed Jul 18, 2007 By Jane Merriman - Analysis
LONDON (Reuters) - Brent oil futures have shifted into backwardation, a market condition that points to expectations of a tighter supply/demand picture that could shrink plentiful crude stocks.
The return of backwardation -- where crude for nearby delivery costs more than crude further forward -- could provide a signal for OPEC that crude oil supplies are no longer as abundant, potentially paving the way for a production increase. "With backwardation, the market is starting to price in a very large crude oil draw," said Olivier Jakob, of oil consultants Petromatrix.
"I think OPEC is waiting to see if those big draws materialize or not." These supply concerns helped on July 16 to drive Brent crude to within 25 cents of its record high of $78.65 a barrel.
The backwardation may not last, but while it does it removes a financial incentive to store oil. "The important thing is that the storage play doesn't work any more," said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital. "You can no longer lock in money by holding crude in inventory for trading purposes." …
entire article at: http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersE ... 4120070718

So what, this has been used as an indicator for the top of the
oil market too.

Contango/Backwardation = useless drible unless you are
an active futures trader,,,, I doubt anyone here is trading the crude futures for a living.

[Bas]

it might as well point to a very fast rising oil price; A few years ago there was backwardation of up to 30 dollars, the one dollar backwardation we have right now doesn't say anything IMO

[DantesPeak]

I don't really think much oil has been stored for speculative purposes. So this backwardation doesn't tell us much about the future.

And the part about OPEC stepping up production is, well, funny.

[turmoil]

North Sea Brent Oil Daily Shipments Will Fall 21% in December (Bloomberg)

Daily shipments of North Sea Brent crude, part of the price benchmark for almost two-thirds of the world's oil, will drop by about 21 percent in December.

Tankers are set to load 161,677 barrels a day of Brent crude in December, down from 204,500 barrels a day scheduled for November, according to the loading program of field operator Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company. A total of 5.01 million barrels will be shipped next month, compared with 6.14 million barrels in November.

Brent Crude Oil Exports May Plunge 17% Next Year (Bloomberg)

Exports of Brent crude, the North Sea's benchmark grade, may decline 17 percent next year, cutting U.K. petroleum revenue as exploration companies turn to more promising regions to boost oil supply.

Brent shipments from the Sullom Voe terminal in Scotland will fall to 108 cargoes of 600,000 barrels next year from 130 in 2007, according to a report prepared for a meeting of the Shetland Islands Council yesterday. Brent's decline is an indicator of U.K. oil output, which has dropped 44 percent since its 1999 peak.

I'm sure some percentage of this production will be offset somewhere in the world, but this is not good for the UK unless the decline is offset by rising prices.

[Zardoz]

Keep your eyes on the road ahead of you, people. Do not look in the rear view mirror, no matter what.

You won't like what you'll see.

[mattduke]

Oh yeah. More Friday night news.

[seldom_seen]

Whoopsee Daisy. Double post.

[seldom_seen]

Yeah, but that's only a drop of 1 million barrels in a month?

What about hope? Why can't we run the interstate highway system on hope and good intentions? How about a hybrid that is fueled by faith and positive thinking? I bet GM is working on one now.

<seldom reaches for his copy of "The Secret.">

[advancedatheist]

Any guesses on how the oil market will respond to this news next week?

[pup55]

161,677 barrels a day of Brent crude in December, down from 204,500 barrels a day scheduled for November

Not to minimize this, but it's only about .04 million barrels per day, compared to 4 million for the whole north sea area, so in the grand scheme of things, it's roundoff error. It is significant because it is Brent which is one of the benchmark grades for pricing.

A number of other grades come from this region.

Skrebowski

Here is a presentation from Skrebowski from 2003 about what things were supposed to be like in 2007, and he was about right. He is calling for around 4 mbo/d total. Norway, UK and Denmark total about 4.081 according to the current report.

So we are only talking about 1% of the total or so, which would be 12% annualized, which is about what it has been declining for the last couple of years anyway in this region.

[EndOfGrowth]

It looks like the uk motorist can expect further tax hikes on fuel in the coming months to make up for lost oil revenues. Couple this with $100 crude and the national average for 1 litre of unleaded will exceed £1.05 and £1.10 for diesel. I can see more refinery blockades

[No-Oil]

It is estimated that every UK tax payer has benefited from a 10p reduction in income tax because of UK North Sea oil revenues for the last 20+ years. The decline in production which was 20% this year in 10months according to some sources (RBS Bank) could have major implications for the UK over the next few years, because if the decline rate remains constant, we could stop producing meaningful amounts of oil in 4-5years time. Thus we will lose the tax dividend & at the same time have to pay increased costs for imports on the open market!!!!

Hold on to your hats, the kack is heading for the rotary oscillator.

[KevO]

I don't understand why though.
The article doesn't explain the reason.. ??

(Bloomberg) -- Daily shipments of North Sea Brent crude, part of the price benchmark for almost two-thirds of the world's oil, will fall by about 8 percent in February.

Tankers are set to load 184,552 barrels a day of Brent crude in February, down from 200,645 barrels a day scheduled for January, according to the loading program of field operator Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's largest oil company.

A total of 5.35 million barrels will be shipped next month, compared with 6.22 million barrels in January.

Brent is one of the four North Sea oil varieties used to price crude from the Middle East, Africa and Russia. The other grades are Forties produced by BP Plc, Norsk Hydro ASA's Oseberg blend and ConocoPhillips's Ekofisk.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net

Bloomberg

and will it make a difference? and if so to what or whom?

[pup55]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic33846.html

This was announced a couple of months back.

Maybe one of the wells that was producing this shut down.

[cudabachi]

http://peakoil.com/fortopic33846.html

This was announced a couple of months back.

Maybe one of the wells that was producing this shut down.

Sounds more like a number of wells being shut down as opposed to a single. JMHO.

[worrier]

I've been watching the oil prices as they are reported on the news for a while. They usually report the price of West Texas Crude versus Brent Oil. West Texas is usually about $5 per barrel more expensive than Brent. I understand that West Texas is sweeter than Brent and is therefore more valuable. But yesterday West Texas was reported at about $117 per barrel and Brent at about $110. Does anyone know why the gap is bigger? Is it due to temporary events or is it peak oil making the sweeter crude more scarce and even more valuable than before? Is the gap going to keep on getting bigger?