Bas wrote:Conflict increases with two variables - shortages and diversity
Why not make that your new signature Jack, it's so... you!
Personally I've never denied that with Peakoil and other more or less associated problems will come an increased potential for violent conflict, both between countries and within. Within or between what countries I don't know and I've found it pretty fruitless to speculate about it, and I know that applies to you too. However, I do not revel in the prospects like you and some others do. Personally I think that's sick. I enjoyed your comments while I thought you were only half serious and I thought they were pretty funny, but lately you
do come across as dead serious enjoying those kind of prospects with an increase of posts (really, do you ever talk about anything else) which have also increased in "grossness".
I could think of more things to say, and it has been on my mind for a while now to "say something about it", so here you go, I hope you won't hold it against me.
Well, let's take a look at this. I'm not sure that revel is entirely correct.
It's true that we cannot and do not know which countries will engage in conflict, or how groups within countries will react. However, I view it as worthwhile to speculate. You surely recall the old phrase, "No battle plan survives contact with the enemy." The same situation exists here; no scenario will survive contact with the realities of peak oil. But the act of planning, of considering possibilities and outcomes has some value - while others sit stunned and inert, we'll already have some ideas of how to react.
As to reveling...I don't know about your conclusion. Now it's quite true that I don't like certain countries; whether that's fair or not is a different matter. But I simply do not like some groups. So if they rip their own nations apart, that's good; I suppose I do revel in that. I suppose I would refer to it as more akin to Schadenfreude.
With regard to other nations or groups (the ones I like), the upcoming events will be - simply stated - tragic. There isn't much any of us can do to avoid some degree of participation in that vast tragedy. But if you've ever played for the highest stakes you'll find that there is a certain adrenalin rush that cannot accurately be portrayed as "bring it on." I think we can accurately state that many of us - quite possibly most of us - will not survive very long if there is a complete societal breakdown. I've seen lots of plans (mine included), and every one of them has holes. Lots of holes. But it is not something that can be avoided or escaped; it must be faced. Perhaps we are in the same situation as WW I troops, going into no man's land, facing machine guns and artillery. We know our likely fate. Perhaps it is the tension of knowing, of waiting for the signal that sends us over the top; but that is not reveling. I do not know precisely what name to apply to it.
Now, as to grossness. Must I point to the events in Rwanda or in Cambodia under Pol Pot? I stand by my statement. People will turn on each other, and they will do it with remarkable viciousness. I regard this as fact, as a fundamental truth. Please refute it, if you can; in truth, I think you cannot. Read about "necklacing". Look up some of the various torture techniques in current use - and by torture, I don't mean water-boarding. Look at what MS-18, an Ecuadorian drug gang does to people. These are reality. And if I may be permitted some gratuitous advice, you would be wise to harden yourself for what is to come. Our resident cornucipians notwithstanding, people are not going to join together in cooperative communities and harvest potatoes in perfect harmony. We - all of us - will get the opportunity to stare into a Hellish abyss.
No joking here. Just my take on what's to come. And since I live well now, and won't live as well (and probably not long) then, I most certainly am not reveling in it.
But I will revel in the pain of the cornucopians.
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