The Natural Gas Price Watch Thread

[frankthetank]

Yup...upcoming storm system along with plenty of cold air...looks like atleast for a while, temps are going to stay chilly...

crazy thing is that this part of the country hasn't really experienced much winter yet...could you imagine if winter would have started quick and hard...

I've seen NG prices do that in the past winters too...

[savethehumans]

I'm with you, frank--IMAGINE! Winter is going to be...wintery! What next? Hot summers??

Didn't know whether to laugh or cry over the stories in late December and early January about how the mild U.S. winter was helping keep energy supplies plentiful and relatively cheap.

Uh, experts? Did you know that winter includes the REST of January, ALL of February, and PART of March, too?? Well, I guess you're being reminded now....

[clv101]

Canada Natural Gas May Rise on Hot Weather and Soaring Futures
U.S. inventories last week rose 43 billion cubic feet, compared with 74 billion during the same period last year, the U.S. Energy Department said. Prices on the Intercontinental Exchange rose 43 cents yesterday, or 4.8 percent, to $9.37 per million British thermal units at Duke Energy Corp.'s Dawn, Ontario, hub. Duke's Dawn storage facility links pipelines that run to central Canada and the U.S. Midwest and Northeast.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=canada

This hot weather seems to be pushing the system to the limit... even if they make it through the summer inventories are going to be low for the winter. It doesn't get the same coverage either in the media or in the peak oil aware groups but I really think gas it the one to watch both in the UK and in Canada/US.

[nero]

Hold on, our NG storage is right on target for this time of year. WE're in good shape for this winter.

[Leanan]

I agree 100%. Experts have been worried for several years now about natural gas, particularly in the northeast. We've lucked out due to mild weather, but this summer is anything but mild.

All those new homes created by the housing bubble...most of them are heated with gas. (Government regulations encourage this.) Meanwhile, we've already come close to running out. In March of 2003, there was barely enough pressure in the main line to the northeast to keep the gas moving. A couple of cold days, and the flow would have stopped. In January of 2004, there were rolling blackouts in Canada, and some areas of the northeast were warned that they might get them, too. Temps were below zero.

I have a feeling it could be worse, much worse, this winter.

[rockdoc123]

Leanan you make a great point here. Everyone seems to concentrate mostly on the supply side of gas. Demand is the big issue and critically peak demand. If the remainder of the summer stays in air conditioning temperatures and we get a couple of weeks of cold early winter the storage will be depleted pretty quickly. If we can get through to February without any really cold weather in the Eastern seaboard (whats the chances of that) I suspect we are in good shape?

[MicroHydro]

Those people down on the farm with the propane tank are looking smarter all the time.

[frankthetank]

89Bcf...ending Sept 9...

What is going on here? With a lot of the gulf turned off, this number could be a lot higher?

[frankthetank]

Here is the LINK

Weren't people on here saying we'd have a negative number? Watch nat gas prices tumble..oh wait, the market works in reverse lately, they'll probably go up!

[Eli]

I think what is going on here is data manipulation.

From everything I have read about NG production in the Gulf most companys cannot even make an accurate assessment of bad Katrina has effected their production.

I think what we are seeing is massive cooking of the books trying to cover up physical realities.

[JustinFrankl]

I think what we are seeing is massive cooking of the books trying to cover up physical realities.

Which will end up making the shortage and resulting price increase much worse when it does hit.

[frankthetank]

So the feeling is that the numbers aren't there, so they (EIA) are just pulling them out of their bungholes?

Great...move along folks, everything is ok here...

Natgas fell 36cents since the last time i looked.

[gnm]

Is there any gas being released from storage? Have Canadian sources upped output? Is there any way of verifying the numbers or is it just speculation that they are cooking them...

-G

[Eli]

Bungholes in high places most definitely.
These numbers they are giving are not real numbers from the field and the data is not collected by some guy with a clipboard measuring the NG at the pumping station.
They are estimates which can be massaged and changed at whim.
Good NG is down! Hurray we are all going to have a wonderful Christmas.
Look the numbers are good and the market dildos say yippy! But, if you look to the people in power they can't hide the fact that they are very worried.

[Spideykid]

Well that is weird because the news is reporting that some power companies are saying prices are going to go up and that the Gov is worried about there being enough NG hmmm

[BabyPeanut]

89Bcf...ending Sept 9... What is going on here? With a lot of the gulf turned off, this number could be a lot higher?

The US got it's first shipment of LNG from Russia.
link

[frankthetank]

more from eia.gov

Working gas in storage increased to 2,758 Bcf as of Friday, September 9, which is 3.7 percent above the 5-year average inventory level for the report week, according to EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (See Storage Figure). The implied net injection of 89 Bcf is 3 percent above the 5-year average of 86 Bcf and about 7 percent less than last year’s injection of 96 Bcf. It is also the largest net injection since the beginning of July and marks the first time since late June that the implied net injection has exceeded the 5-year average. Despite continued natural gas production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico, which reduces supplies from what they otherwise would have been, the relatively large net injection occurred as futures prices hold a significant premium to the Henry Hub spot price offering a strong economic incentive to store natural gas for the winter heating season. Moderate temperatures across the United States also likely contributed to the above average net injection (See Temperature Maps). While the nation as a whole experienced 12.5 percent more cooling degree days than normal, temperatures in key market centers along both the south Atlantic and Pacific coasts were cooler-than-normal, likely reducing demand for natural gas fired electric generation to meet air conditioning demand.

What does implied mean?

[chuck6877]

I was hoping somebody could help answer these questions for me:
Can futures contracts be made for natural gas like oil?
A futures contract for oil is about $7,000.00, at 10%. What would a futures contract for natural gas cost?
How would I buy a futures contract in natural gas? I want to buy one that would expire at the end of Jan 2006. This would be a good bet huh?

[SD_Scott]

I'm curious to see how all of the equipment using this new gas is going to work. I've done some research and LNG burns hotter than regular gas and has some other differences. It can upset gas turbines also.

[fossil_fuel]

I was hoping somebody could help answer these questions for me: Can futures contracts be made for natural gas like oil? A futures contract for oil is about $7,000.00, at 10%. What would a futures contract for natural gas cost?
How would I buy a futures contract in natural gas? I want to buy one that would expire at the end of Jan 2006. This would be a good bet huh?

yes. see www.nymex.com , you can choose either the normal or the mini (half size) contract www.xpresstrade.com