Global Economy (merged)

[roccman]

"In fact according to the Olduvai Theory, about 100 years."

I thought Duncan revised that to 2008-2012 timeframe....

Soooooooo...

That hundred goes to 82 years (2012)

Yes?

[virgincrude]

Err, did anybody else notice the news that the US economy had zilch growth so far this year? Lots of BS about how things are looking good from both the NYT and WP, but more realistic analyses here:

“Yesterday we learned that 1st quarter GDP “grew” at an annualized rate of only .6% (of course if the government used honest inflation numbers, real GDP is already contracting). Slower growth means fewer jobs and declining incomes, which will further pressure the housing market as homeowners have less income to confront rising adjustable rate mortgages. For potential home buyers the situation is even worse. Not only do they face higher mortgage payments but they must now come up with actual down-payments (which they do not have) and meet far stricter lending standards, including documenting their inadequate incomes.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/edito ... /0601.html


"The GDP has plunged to .6% over the last two quarters, the slowest growth since 2002 (see Home Prices Rise:a Surprise?) yet the birth/death model is adding jobs at one of the highest clips ever.

The BLS has not released details of how their model works. Shouldn't that come under the Freedom of Information Act? Or is the birth/death model a top secret security risk? How does the BLS get away with this nonsense and why does anyone believe these jobs reports? That's the biggest puzzle of all.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Looks like your recession has started already

[EnergyUnlimited]

"In fact according to the Olduvai Theory, about 100 years."

I thought Duncan revised that to 2008-2012 timeframe....

Soooooooo...

That hundred goes to 82 years (2012)

Yes?

Within this 82 years electricity supply may become unrealiable, but you will still have it for 99% of time in first world (means about 3-4 days a year in NY without light...).
It will still take 2 or 3 decades more to deteriorate power supply sufficiently to create significant "permanent blackout areas" in current western nations.

[roccman]

"Within this 82 years electricity supply may become unrealiable, but you will still have it for 99% of time in first world (means about 3-4 days a year in NY without light...).
It will still take 2 or 3 decades more to deteriorate power supply sufficiently to create significant "permanent blackout areas" in current western nations."

I really need to see links or more explanation...even if it is anecdotal.

I work in the electricity generation field - NEPA permitting.

In the southwest we are running a 400 MW shortfall EVERY year for the past 5 years.

Bulk generation is in the "planning stages", but lights on is very far off for most of these projects...

Ergo

www.desertrockenergy.com

Planning started in 2001 for this 1500 MW project...EIS is not even close to being final...then add another 5 years for construction.

Also Mohave is now entirely dead...1680 MW off line.

Sorry to say...our electrical grid in on its last leg.

[Tyler_JC]

"But a $13 trillion economy growing by $450 billion per year with 300 million consumers "

Just 20% of China's population makes up the 300 million american consumers.

And I would argue - we are at a point where 300 million american consumers are out of money and almost out of jobs...retail sales down...credit spending up...making hamburgers is now classified a "manufacturing".

And "growing" by $450 Billion a year??

If I had a printing press in my basement I would be "growing" too.

How much is new money supply "growing" (M3) what 12-13% A MONTH??!!

The stock market needs to be at 15,000 JUST TO BREAK EVEN.

Oh, so the money supply is increasing by a factor of 3.8 every year? (X*1.12^12=3.8X)

Money supply growth is quoted as an annualized growth rate, not a monthly grow rate. Otherwise they would say that the money supply is growing at 1% a month, not 12%-13%.

And 20% of China does not have the same spending power as 100% of America. Or even 20% of America for that matter.

The Chinese simply do not have enough income to consume at America's level.

An increase in the value of the Yuan would put considerable pressure on Chinese exports and would put many of them out of business.

Also, the price of foreign imports would drop at the same rate that the price of exports increased, leading to a deterioration of China's massive trade surplus and thus shrinking GDP growth.

[roccman]

My bad...per year...still not a good outlook.

"Knees would be knocking audibly in the credit markets, if the Fed still reported M3 growth. ***Annual growth (SGS Ongoing M3 series) accelerated sharply in April to 12.9%, from 11.7% in March. [ See chart below / Bill ]*** The last time annual M3 growth approached 13%, the Fed was liquefying the financial system in the wake of the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Before that, the year was 1981 and official annual CPI inflation was running about 10%. If 10% inflation sounds familiar, that is roughly the level of annual CPI inflation that would be reported today using the CPI methodologies of 1980. [ See chart below ] ***Exacerbating the financial catastrophe that slowly is unfolding for the U.S. markets, the economy is in a deepening recession [ See chart below ]*** and the U.S. dollar has begun suffering nascent selling pressures. [ See chart below] ***In terms of monthly averages, gold already is at an all-time high, and the trade-weighted dollar is at an all-time low.*** Out of touch with reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average keeps bouncing to new highs."



http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs

[ColossalContrarian]

The Chinese simply do not have enough income to consume at America's level.

That’s pretty bad when our (America’s) national savings rate is -2%. It’s like our debt is also an income.

An increase in the value of the Yuan would put considerable pressure on Chinese exports and would put many of them out of business.

Also, the price of foreign imports would drop at the same rate that the price of exports increased, leading to a deterioration of China's massive trade surplus and thus shrinking GDP growth.

The rest of the world should keep loaning us money! (*for their own wellbeing!!!*)

[EnergyUnlimited]

"Within this 82 years electricity supply may become unrealiable, but you will still have it for 99% of time in first world (means about 3-4 days a year in NY without light...).
It will still take 2 or 3 decades more to deteriorate power supply sufficiently to create significant "permanent blackout areas" in current western nations."

I really need to see links or more explanation...even if it is anecdotal.

Collapse of grid will rather be an exhausting but gradual process, not a speedy one.
You will have to wait a bit longer for permanent failures of grid in richer countries.

I work in the electricity generation field - NEPA permitting.

In the southwest we are running a 400 MW shortfall EVERY year for the past 5 years.

Certain levels of shortages can be addressed by cuts of nonessential supplies to industrial uses, enforcement of conservation policies, say by lowering of households supply to 5A per 1000 sq ft of inhabited property, bans on use (and sales...) of air con etc.
This will allow for grid to work a bit longer.

Planning started in 2001 for this 1500 MW project...EIS is not even close to being final...then add another 5 years for construction.

Also Mohave is now entirely dead...1680 MW off line.

Sorry to say...our electrical grid in on its last leg.

My bet is, that all NIMBY factors together with BANANA principle will get swept under a carpet, once severe power shortages are faced.
So prepare yourself to face final rape of environment.

[roccman]

"My bet is, that all NIMBY factors together with BANANA principle will get swept under a carpet, once severe power shortages are faced.
So prepare yourself to face final rape of environment."

No argument here...it hath been foretold:

Sec. 1506.11 Emergencies.

Where emergency circumstances make it necessary to take an action with significant environmental impact without observing the provisions of these regulations, the Federal agency taking the action should consult with the Council about alternative arrangements. Agencies and the Council will limit such arrangements to actions necessary to control the immediate impacts of the emergency. Other actions remain subject to NEPA review.

THE STFU CLAUSE IN THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT.

[I_Like_Plants]

EnergyUnlimited I thought it was fairly common knowledge, outages are a way of life in the US - sure only a few days a year, but they do happen. Also no water a few days a year, working on pipes etc., also heater for hot water out, this is just a way of life. In rural areas and areas with severe winters Americans plan, or at least should plan, on being on their own for a couple of weeks, no electricity or help - this is routine stuff in these areas. "Blackouts" (no electricity) were a common occurrance when I was growing up, and we kept our kerosene lamps handy. Bedtimes got even earlier too! In fact I'd say there are less outages now than when I was a kid, but if you think everything's perfect here in the US electricity-wise, you're seeing an ideal, not the real.

The Olduvai Theory says in 2030 things will be like they were in 1930. So, we have to look at how it was in the 1930s - well, a lot of people didn't have electricity, a lot of the time it was off-and-on, people had no phone or a party line phone, etc. I can see people sharing one cell phone now, and we'll sure see it in the future. We do have some people now living with no electricity, of course homless people sure live that way but also a lot of people who are financially on the edge.

As someone said here, it's easier for an American to confess they have a child molester in their family than admit to having financial problems.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Within this 82 years electricity supply may become unrealiable, but you will still have it for 99% of time in first world (means about 3-4 days a year in NY without light...).
It will still take 2 or 3 decades more to deteriorate power supply sufficiently to create significant "permanent blackout areas" in current western nations.

Almost everyone in the US has 3-4 days a year without electricity now, some routinely have weeks each year with it out. I don't seem to have electricity in some of the sockets in my apartment, my phone line's fucked up somehow, and I'm in one of the wealthiest parts of the Empire. Trees and termites are steadily eating away, literally, at the piping here and the walls, and they're winning. This apartment building and most of them around here was built in the 1970s, when the trees and termites win, they will NOT be rebuilt.

I was not aware, that situation with electricity is so bad in US now.
In EU it is no near that bad.
I had red somewhere about 2 - 3 hours of cuts per year at average (Eastern nations of EU enclosed in statistics).

[seahorse]

Weeks without electricity in the states? Where's the link to support that statement. I've lived here my whole life, and have never gone even 24 hours without electricity. This year, we had no outages whatsoever. There were a few places up north that had some days out due to ice, but that is an exception and by no means normal.

[Tyler_JC]

EnergyUnlimited, for 99% of the population, the electricity almost never goes out.

Even in the Northeast with its "antiquated" electrical grid and "fierce" winter blizzards, we never lose power for more than a few hours at a time.

And no matter how much money you fill like throwing at the electrical grip, it's never going to be Fallen-Down-Tree-Proof or Heavy-Ice-Storm-Proof.

[threadbear]

"Secondly, one country's trade surplus has to be another country's deficit. So, if the US can no longer pay for its imports then oil producers and Asian exports can no longer sell to them. That reduces those exporters' current account surpluses. "

This is where I am not convinced.

Why would almost 3 billion Indians and Asians not become their own consumer machine?

We are at a point where America is becoming increasingly irrelevant on the global playing field.

It will be as rough a transition for the Chinese to expand the middle class so they can become a really strong engine of consumption, as it will be for the US to shrink the middle class, lower expectations in response to China's rising currency valuations.

China could see a deflationary collapse, like the Great Depression in response to this. The ultimate consequence could be an invigoration of union activity and the growth of the military industrial complex and an explosion of govt/corporate r&d and modernizing and expansion of the education system. They have the funds to do this IF the value of American dollars can be managed slowly downward. It's the American model of recovery.

The US will recede as a world power, in an inflationary collapse,much like Rome. They will degrade to a secondary power, their international status reduced to organized crime cartels, working hand in hand with the church.

In this case it will be the fundamentalist evangelicals working hand in hand with narco regimes in places like Latin America, subverting Roman Catholicism, it's predessesor. The dollar will eventually go the way of the peso.

[Graeme]

Bleak forecast for global business

Liquid fuel shortages, massive unemployment, high interest rates and severe recession.

Those are just some of the bleak prospects ahead for the global economy as our energy supplies dry up, according to a keynote speaker at the Smart 2007 supply chain conference to be held in Sydney next week.

The predictions come from Dr Roger Bezdek, a keynote speaker at the conference, described as an “internationally recognised expert” in energy market analysis and energy forecasting and President, Management Information Services, USA. He has co-authored two reports for the US Department of Energy on the economic impacts and risk management of declining oil supplies and liquid fuel mitigation options.

Whilst the world is only now waking up to the problems inherent in climate change, and with many scientists believing remedial actions are long overdue, experts are now calling for early action to avoid the same scenario with peak oil.

Bezdek asserts that one of the major challenges preventing the issue from being taken seriously by many decision makers and industry leaders is a history of repeated and erroneous predictions of oil peaking. Data discrepancies in the past – owing to political biases or low quality of reserves data – may have given the world false assurance and prevented policy makers from taking recent, more robust forecasts seriously.

“The problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any faced by modern industrial society. Previous energy transitions, from wood to coal and from coal to oil, were gradual and evolutionary. The world is facing an imminent energy discontinuity that will be abrupt and painful,” said Dr Bezdek.

foodweek

[Tanada]

Nothing to see here....move along....move along....