How vigilant of your Robert. It seems those tired reworked wells have managed another month's gasp. It's not summer yet.
One thing I have learned about hardcore doomers - they can never come out and say they were wrong. They can only come up with excuses: "I would have been right, if...."
But your comment above makes no sense. It isn't summer yet? Summer has come and gone. Saudi production had stopped falling by summer, as I predicted. So, presume I got lucky if you wish, but I did not. While I never wavered, I got lots of grief from the group-think set such as yourself who can only see evidence that supports their hypothesis. They seem to be incapable of looking at and incorporating contradictory evidence - it just doesn't exist or is handwaved away. They get into this positive feedback loop and work themselves into a frenzy, all the time ignoring bits of the picture. I was looking at the big picture. This is, after all, not a hobby for me as it is for most of the people making these predictions: I do this for a living. In fact, I am out the door in just a few minutes, headed to London to consult with one group on cellulosic ethanol, another group on butanol, and a third group on future trends in the sector. Whether you can ever come to admit it, there are those who grant that I do know what I am talking about. Ask Stuart.
A number of people in the first quarter were making dire predictions about Saudi. I bet I can go back and find that you were one of them. Saudi was going to be down to 8 million bpd or less by now. They were in free-fall. What did I say? That they were reducing production to meet demand. So, your "another month's gasp" is actually 9 months and counting (and they say they are going to raise production now), which means they were certainly setting on production back in March when I said they were.
Doomers love my ethanol and biofuel views - because it does fit into the doomer outlook. But start contradicting them on Saudi, and they get pretty nasty. But I will tell you this. I communicate frequently with Stuart, and his views on Saudi have changed since March. He now grants they they are in better shape than he thought. In fact, his views on URR have come around and are now very close to my own, and he is no longer enamored with the HL after the essays I wrote exposing it. And he does not subscribe to your "tired reworked wells" scenario. Given that Stuart is clearly your hero and a major player in your eyes, you may then want to revise your outlook on this.