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roccman wrote:"In fact according to the Olduvai Theory, about 100 years."
I thought Duncan revised that to 2008-2012 timeframe....
That hundred goes to 82 years (2012)
roccman wrote:"But a $13 trillion economy growing by $450 billion per year with 300 million consumers "
Just 20% of China's population makes up the 300 million american consumers.
And I would argue - we are at a point where 300 million american consumers are out of money and almost out of jobs...retail sales down...credit spending up...making hamburgers is now classified a "manufacturing".
And "growing" by $450 Billion a year??
If I had a printing press in my basement I would be "growing" too.
How much is new money supply "growing" (M3) what 12-13% A MONTH??!!
The stock market needs to be at 15,000 JUST TO BREAK EVEN.
Tyler_JC wrote:The Chinese simply do not have enough income to consume at America's level.
Tyler_JC wrote:An increase in the value of the Yuan would put considerable pressure on Chinese exports and would put many of them out of business.
Also, the price of foreign imports would drop at the same rate that the price of exports increased, leading to a deterioration of China's massive trade surplus and thus shrinking GDP growth.
roccman wrote:"Within this 82 years electricity supply may become unrealiable, but you will still have it for 99% of time in first world (means about 3-4 days a year in NY without light...).
It will still take 2 or 3 decades more to deteriorate power supply sufficiently to create significant "permanent blackout areas" in current western nations."
I really need to see links or more explanation...even if it is anecdotal.
I work in the electricity generation field - NEPA permitting.
In the southwest we are running a 400 MW shortfall EVERY year for the past 5 years.
Planning started in 2001 for this 1500 MW project...EIS is not even close to being final...then add another 5 years for construction.
Also Mohave is now entirely dead...1680 MW off line.
Sorry to say...our electrical grid in on its last leg.
I_Like_Plants wrote:EnergyUnlimited wrote:Within this 82 years electricity supply may become unrealiable, but you will still have it for 99% of time in first world (means about 3-4 days a year in NY without light...).
It will still take 2 or 3 decades more to deteriorate power supply sufficiently to create significant "permanent blackout areas" in current western nations.
Almost everyone in the US has 3-4 days a year without electricity now, some routinely have weeks each year with it out. I don't seem to have electricity in some of the sockets in my apartment, my phone line's fucked up somehow, and I'm in one of the wealthiest parts of the Empire. Trees and termites are steadily eating away, literally, at the piping here and the walls, and they're winning. This apartment building and most of them around here was built in the 1970s, when the trees and termites win, they will NOT be rebuilt.
roccman wrote:"Secondly, one country's trade surplus has to be another country's deficit. So, if the US can no longer pay for its imports then oil producers and Asian exports can no longer sell to them. That reduces those exporters' current account surpluses. "
This is where I am not convinced.
Why would almost 3 billion Indians and Asians not become their own consumer machine?
We are at a point where America is becoming increasingly irrelevant on the global playing field.
Liquid fuel shortages, massive unemployment, high interest rates and severe recession.
Those are just some of the bleak prospects ahead for the global economy as our energy supplies dry up, according to a keynote speaker at the Smart 2007 supply chain conference to be held in Sydney next week.
The predictions come from Dr Roger Bezdek, a keynote speaker at the conference, described as an “internationally recognised expert” in energy market analysis and energy forecasting and President, Management Information Services, USA. He has co-authored two reports for the US Department of Energy on the economic impacts and risk management of declining oil supplies and liquid fuel mitigation options.
Whilst the world is only now waking up to the problems inherent in climate change, and with many scientists believing remedial actions are long overdue, experts are now calling for early action to avoid the same scenario with peak oil.
Bezdek asserts that one of the major challenges preventing the issue from being taken seriously by many decision makers and industry leaders is a history of repeated and erroneous predictions of oil peaking. Data discrepancies in the past – owing to political biases or low quality of reserves data – may have given the world false assurance and prevented policy makers from taking recent, more robust forecasts seriously.
“The problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any faced by modern industrial society. Previous energy transitions, from wood to coal and from coal to oil, were gradual and evolutionary. The world is facing an imminent energy discontinuity that will be abrupt and painful,” said Dr Bezdek.
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