Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports 2007-08

[oilluber]

hey guys,,, keep up the good work and
the pessimistic data on gasoline inventories...

Now to brighten the mood alittle here,, heck , my oil stocks are
going up. Sit back and enjoy peak oil.

Hey Oilluber. What stocks do you have. I've got COP (Conoco) and EGY. Unfortunately, COP has decided to pick a fight with Chavez and EGY has had some production issues.

COP is a good one, I have PKZ petrocanada, oilexco, husky energy,ECA
all canadian oil and gas. I do believe the US oil stocks are much cheaper, although for growth, the canadian ones are good.

All this doom and gloom is unhealthy unless you hold some oil stocks and watch your wealth rise.

[shortonoil]

oilluber said:

All this doom and gloom is unhealthy unless you hold some oil stocks and watch your wealth rise.

This wealth that you are referring to is, I assume, that of a debt based fiat currency, one which will disappear, just as assuredly as the oil that brought it into existence. The trick today is not in making money, the trick will be to keep some facsimile of it going into the future.

[nth]

Here is some info on refined gasoline imports from EIA.EIA US import data

UK is the leading supplier to US west coast.
Total refined gasoline imports to west coast is avg 56kbpd.
Can you believe UK to California?
US is desperate for gasoline.
Almost all the major European refinery states are exporting to US.
Luckily, it looks like they have quite a lot of capacity to satisfy domestic and export to US. I am not sure about 1.5mbpd that is required according to you guys. I can see 1.4mbpd easily attainable if 90+% utilization rate for European and Asian refineries.

Also, if we make it this year, next year will be worse. European refiners: France and Germany are scheduled for major downtime. Ouch! IEA refinery report

It looks like world refined product stocks will be dropping for the whole year, unless demand decreases.

[shortonoil]

nth said:

It looks like world refined product stocks will be dropping for the whole year, unless demand decreases.

Yes, it certainly looks like refinery utilization is down world wide. Mexico 72% - wow. The last paragraph on page 14 confirms what we have been speculating about at this site for quite a awhile; the lower API and higher sulfur content of crude today is affecting refinery output, and this is occurring at plants all over the world. This concurs quite well with the concept of ERoEI declining before crude production declines. Of course, this added dimension is going to make it all but impossible to explain the effects of PO to the man in the street.


It would be an interesting twist of fate if lower refinery output cut crude demand, which would cut or at least dampen crude price increases; that would then restrict exploration and development. PO may hold, yet to be realized, pit falls!

[Uninspired123]

nth said:

It looks like world refined product stocks will be dropping for the whole year, unless demand decreases.

Yes, it certainly looks like refinery utilization is down world wide. Mexico 72% - wow. The last paragraph on page 14 confirms what we have been speculating about at this site for quite a awhile; the lower API and higher sulfur content of crude today is affecting refinery output, and this is occurring at plants all over the world. This concurs quite well with the concept of ERoEI declining before crude production declines. Of course, this added dimension is going to make it all but impossible to explain the effects of PO to the man in the street.


It would be an interesting twist of fate if lower refinery output cut crude demand, which would cut or at least dampen crude price increases; that would then restrict exploration and development. PO may hold, yet to be realized, pit falls!

Sulfur content and gravity hasn't changed much since 2001 and if it's changed at all it has been slow. I don't think you can peg it on a lower grade of crude oil alone causing the problems.

[oilluber]

oilluber said:

All this doom and gloom is unhealthy unless you hold some oil stocks and watch your wealth rise.

This wealth that you are referring to is, I assume, that of a debt based fiat currency, one which will disappear, just as assuredly as the oil that brought it into existence. The trick today is not in making money, the trick will be to keep some facsimile of it going into the future.

all my wealth is tied up in hard and soft assets like oil and mining companies. No wealth in USD, There is no wealth in holding US debt.

Hard assets = wealth

[shortonoil]

Footnote: based on the present inventory of 193 mb and my past estimate of 185.7 mb as the bottom of useable supply, we are now 18.8 hrs away from running out of gas.

[Valdemar]

So, if your estimate is right, we're less than a day away from problems.

Or rather, the US is. I'll be watching with interest from the other side of the pond.

[shortonoil]

Uninspired123 said:

Sulfur content and gravity hasn't changed much since 2001 and if it's changed at all it has been slow. I don't think you can peg it on a lower grade of crude oil alone causing the problems.

You are picking your data points after the fact, you can prove anything using that method, the long term trend has not changed a bit; lower API and higher sulfur.

[shortonoil]

Valdemar said:

So, if your estimate is right, we're less than a day away from problems.

The US reserve stock of gasoline is now 18.8 hrs worth of usage.

[Valdemar]

Nice. After that's used, how fares the system then? Will the whole country start facing shortages en masse or is it avoidable still?

[shortonoil]

Valdemar said:

Nice. After that's used, how fares the system then? Will the whole country start facing shortages en masse or is it avoidable still?

The best place to get an answer to this question is to read pup55’s earlier posts. His calculations on this seem to be about as good as we are going to get. His predictions show a very high likely hood of shortages showing up in August, that is, if nothing really goes bad between now and then. It is likely that at some point the general public will panic and start hoarding gasoline; that will strip any reserve we have in hours and bring on a national shortage. This will start at the points most distant from the source of supply, time wise. Our chances of dodging this are small; higher prices of gasoline, in the short term, will probably not be sufficient to cut demand enough to avoid this from happening. Over very short periods of time, months, gasoline is almost totally inelastic.

The question is; how long will it take us to re-adjust to this new circumstance. My calculations show that the US will have to cut its gasoline consumption permanently by 6.5% to bring the system back into balance. That could take better than a year to accomplish, and coupled with a crashing housing market and badly inflated equities market, that will probably result in a very serious economic decline on all fronts.

[UncoveringTruths]

Valdemar said:

Nice. After that's used, how fares the system then? Will the whole country start facing shortages en masse or is it avoidable still?

The best place to get an answer to this question is to read pup55’s earlier posts. His calculations on this seem to be about as good as we are going to get. His predictions show a very high likely hood of shortages showing up in August, that is, if nothing really goes bad between now and then. It is likely that at some point the general public will panic and start hoarding gasoline; that will strip any reserve we have in hours and bring on a national shortage. This will start at the points most distant from the source of supply, time wise. Our chances of dodging this are small; higher prices of gasoline, in the short term, will probably not be sufficient to cut demand enough to avoid this from happening. Over very short periods of time, months, gasoline is almost totally inelastic.

The question is; how long will it take us to re-adjust to this new circumstance. My calculations show that the US will have to cut its gasoline consumption permanently by 6.5% to bring the system back into balance. That could take better than a year to accomplish, and coupled with a crashing housing market and badly inflated equities market, that will probably result in a very serious economic decline on all fronts.

I'm going to time my 3 weeks of Vacation I got coming for when things look like there going down quickly and spend that time wrapping up loose ends. If things go down as you just described all I can say is holy$hit. I dont think it's the end though maybe its the wake up call that we need.

[oilluber]

this peak oil forum is becomming the doomsday forum.
Come on guys, its not the end of the world. Herny Groppe stated
that we have enough oil, expensive , that is. So there should
be enough supplies for those willing to cough up the $$.

The higher prices will curb demand and we will have enough gasoline for the summer driving season and everybody will be happy.

Anyways, $4 -6 bucks for a gallon is what everybody in importing
countries are paying,,, so no big deal.

Let Bernanke print more USD to pay for the expensive oil.

[topcat]

Here, our fuel jumped .25 one day. Two days later, it dropped .06

As long as people will pay $8.00/gallon for water ($1.00/16 oz bottle), why would they hesitate to spend $4.00/gallon for fuel?

[rdberg1957]

$4 is unlikely to impact demand much. I would bet on some shortages. Maybe I should trade in my hummer.

[shortonoil]

In a few hours we will be getting last week’s gasoline numbers. Unless one hell of a lot of imports showed up, or Santa’s elves took over the refineries, we are in one big pile of #$@^.

[DoubleD]

Shortonoil - I have been checking in to see when you folks would post the updated info and your follow on analysis. I don't post much here - but read alot and have to say that this particular thread and it's predecessor is my first check in anymore.

Well done to all of you that contribute the info and analysis. It is much appreciated.

[oilluber]

In a few hours we will be getting last week’s gasoline numbers. Unless one hell of a lot of imports showed up, or Santa’s elves took over the refineries, we are in one big pile of #$@^.

here we go again with the negativity, there is always a silver/profitable lining,,, why don;' you buy some oil futures or
oil stocks and take it easy with the doom and gloom ??

This board is informative, but the pessimism is hard to read.

[chuck6877]

Oilluber,

Shortonoil is being empathetic to the lives of the average American.

The average American is an idiot that does not have investments and lives paycheck to paycheck.

To them a rise in the price of gasoline to $4.00/gallon might feel awfully doom and gloomish especially if their commute is 70 miles round trip in their SUV getting 10 miles a gallon for an $8.00/hour job!......

In the above example Joe Blow will spend $28.00 of his pretax earnings of $64.00 for their 8 hour shift that day on gasoline!

These changes are happening too fast for Joe Blow to know what's hitting him. To him it is doom and gloom like I said earlier.

Peak oil is going to scare the hell out of a lot of people that don't have those oil futures or a $100,000/year job

Sorry but if you think of others losing their jobs and not being able to put food on the table because of economic hardship from the coming high prices and not just yourself, it's easy to get pessimistic,

Jet