Compare with 1929 (merged)

[Oilgood]

When, if ever, do you think the US economy will next take a dive on par with the 1929 crash and 1930's great depression?

[Taskforce_Unity]

Hard to say, i think within 5 years. We're going to see some small bubbles (housing for instance) and then big one. It also depends on how the EU, China and russia react. If the petrodollar gets abandoned etc..

Of those 5 years i think it will be within a year or 2.

[chargrove]

Taskforce beat me to it. If you had a "within 1-2 years" bracket (something less than 5 but more than "any day now"), that's what I would have picked.

Personally I think it'll be within this next year (but not sooner than a month, unless the US does something stupid like invading Iran). There are geopolitical issues right now which result in a long-term no-win scenario for the dollar, and one big issue has a date attached (the scheduled opening of the Iranian oil bourse in March '05). I'd say that one way or another, by this time next year, we'll be in meltdown.

[Oilgood]

I actually was going to put a "sometime in the next year" option, but I ran out of space, and I thought "any day" and "within 5 years" would collectively cover that period of time. If you think sometime in the next year or so, just go with "any day" if you reckon it will be in, say, less than 6 months, or "within five years" if you think it will be more than about 6 months away-just a suggestion.

Perhaps I should have left the "next year" option in. Oh well.........

[Peak_Plus]

I really doubt "any day now" or even in 2005. A good analysis of the situation can be found at
[a href="http://www.clifdroke.com/articles/110404/cd110404.mgi"]clif drokes' site[/a], expecially interesting for traders.

There are however, a few fundamentals which cannot be overlooked. The real estate boom is about to blow (2005 peak?). The demographic situation is about to kip over (baby boomers median age over 46,5 - see Arthur S. Dent). The Kondratiev Cycle is right before a plateau fall-off, meaning (in Schumpeterian analysis) that the new technologies are loosing impetus because of structural difficulties. And finally, although this will be only a secondary reason in the cominig years, Peak Oil. Peak Oil will more than likely mean that we will not likely come out of the crash easily... But in the "next five years", not only will stock prices likewise crash, but it will pull most pension funds down with it.

No soft landing here.

[savethehumans]

Put me down as another who feels there should have been an "in the next year" option. Except, of course, this one's gonna make 1929 look like a minor setback....

[MrMambo]

Even investment inflows — which had been positive in every single year since the great crash of 1929 — have turned negative. Instead of investment money flowing into America to the tune of $11.3 billion in 2005, now it’s flowing out, with $7.3 billion leaving last year alone. This puts the U.S. dollar in even greater jeopardy.

source: http://www.financialsense.com/editorial ... /0319.html

I found this as part of a Financial Sense editorial on changes in China. But it was the claim in the quote that jumped out of the page. I knew USA was in a deficit and that the cuntry maintained growth based on debt instead of actual economic productivity. But all the time I have also heard that the world financial community despite the rising US debt must see USA as an attrictive investment region since investments are flowing into the country.

If the editorial from FSN is based on real facts this is a milestone for the US position in the world economy.

Recently there were also stories that London had overtaken New York as the world financial center.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/27/ ... london.php

Another recent milestone was that the latest wave of global financial turmoil originated in the shanghai stock exchange and not in Wall Street.

So what are the prime drivers that have gotten investors to start loosing interest in the US economy, and what can this signal about global geopolitical changes ahead?

[mmasters]

Prime driver is greed.

For business it's cheaper labor and less regulatory bureaucracy. For politicians it's getting bought off to change trade agreements.
For the unglobalized it's about building industry and attaining the american dream.

For the international financiers it's about flattening the superpower countries to ultimately facilitate world domination though an integrated one world financial system.

Greeeeeeeed.

[MonteQuest]

So what are the prime drivers that have gotten investors to start loosing interest in the US economy, and what can this signal about global geopolitical changes ahead?

Well, can you make the case that it is due to hydrocarbon depletion?

If not, then why did you post it here?

[Eli]

Well, can you make the case that it is due to hydrocarbon depletion?

If not, then why did you post it here?

Trying to get your moderator job back?

If not, then why did you post Monte?



As far as I can see there is no difference between our world economic system and oil. Money is oil and oil is the global economy.

The collapse of the world economy is directly connected to energy so the discussion of it has everything to do with PO.

[MonteQuest]

Well, can you make the case that it is due to hydrocarbon depletion?

If not, then why did you post it here?

Trying to get your moderator job back?

If not, then why did you post Monte?



As far as I can see there is no difference between our world economic system and oil. Money is oil and oil is the global economy.

The collapse of the world economy is directly connected to energy so the discussion of it has everything to do with PO.

The world economy has collapsed before when we were awash in oil. The Great Depression. We have had recessions and stagflation without oil peaking. So, your argument is not valid.

And why did I post?

Because it is the policy of this forum and explicit in the posting guidelines and forum permissions for it to be only about economic ramifications of hydrocarbon depletion and not general economics.

So, unless you can tie it to hydrocarbon depletion it is off-topic and should be posted in the Open Forum.

And lastly, off-topic posts push the on-topic threads off of the front page. Few read beyond the front page.

This is why the posting guidelines are as such in each and every forum.

[Eli]

You ignored my question if you want be a moderator be moderator if not don't post.

What about the Zionists posts and the 911 inside job thread their relation to PO is what exactly?

Those threads are a lot harder to connect to PO than our oil based energy economy.

And I will admit I am wrong about money=oil if you can prove that the world economy is not dependent on cheap and available oil.

But back on topic.

Here is an article calling for a solution to the housing crisis



Crisis looming

The guy basically says the solution is just bail everyone out with more credit. Brilliant!

This economy is not going to stop until we hit the physical limit of our oil supply. The party will continue on Wall Street even as the Subprime debacle works it way through the entire economy.

What will do us in however is if this summer we have gas spike again or any major supply disruptions. Wall Street is literally banking on the idea that inflation will not rise. Even with the feds using funny numbers to calculate inflation their will be hell to pay if we see a spike in energy prices.

High energy prices lead to inflation the housing market is in terrible shape without inflation with inflation we are facing total economic meltdown.

[master_rb]

i don't want to argue with anybody but having "economic" forum that has to be connected to oil is stupid, either have "economic" forum where anything related to economy can be posted or split "open discussion" into "economic" and "other"

half of the "open discussion" is about economy, actually there is more about economy in "open discussion" than "economic" due to this constraint, i think it's really a bad design

[I_Like_Plants]

I clicked on the first one, although I"d like to see a choice of "the top three".

[chukar]

I don't think most investors are expecting any kind of crash or collapse in the US. They follow the mainstream media reports, which tend to water down bad news and hype good news. The reason investments are going overseas is because Asian investments are more appealing. Their economies have been growing at a rapid pace and are expected to continue to do so.

[MonteQuest]

You ignored my question if you want be a moderator be moderator if not don't post.

Oh, so I cannot ask why an off-topic is posted?

Well, can you make the case that it is due to hydrocarbon depletion?

If not, then why did you post it here?

Pretty simple question. Off-topics aren't suppose to be posted here.

What about the Zionists posts and the 911 inside job thread their relation to PO is what exactly?

Those are in the Open forum, are they not?

[MonteQuest]

i don't want to argue with anybody but having "economic" forum that has to be connected to oil is stupid,

Stupid?

On a peak oil site where the primary issue is exploring hydrocarbon depletion and it's consequences?

If you want to post about economics go to an economics website forum and have at it, or, as people do, post in the Open forum.

[master_rb]

MonteQuest

in my opinion people who come to this site are well educated and have broad interests - not just PO, whenever i see a discussion about dollar, debt, subprime problems, housing, greenspan etc... i see huge number of posts sometimes more than news directly related to PO like new oil field discoveries, the only PO news that have more responses than economic ones are decline rates coming from Mexico or SA

i base my opinion on visiting this site often, i see a lot of problems with people posting in "wrong" places because of not relating to PO, from what i've observed economics is a huge part of PO and can't be left in open forum, it's just too imporant, either get rid of the constraint on economics forum or create a new forum for non-PO related economic discussion

if it was me, i would put all the economic topics in one forum just to keep things together and avoid problems with moving the topics, this is just my opinion

[Bas]

This is definately a major milestone and a much more important signal than the weakening dollar (which is still within a historical band) as for investment people tend to look to the long term outlook as opposed to the short term outlook that generally rules the currency market. America was always seen as the savehaven for investments and it's economy has always profited handsomely from that notion too.

[Eli]

Anyway...


It was interesting reading about an investment guru like Jim Rogers deciding to pick up and move out of the US.

(hey Monte that thread was posted on the current energy news maybe you should go tilt against that windmill)

Chuk you bring up a good point. I agree the average guy who is just funding his 401k or the retired guy who checks his stocks twice a year has no clue what is coming.

What you do see is that the smart money is already in China they know that is where the growth is and will be. That is why Jim Rogers says he is willing to ride out any decline in the Chinese market even if they lose 30% he will ride the market out. He has pulled all of his money out of the US.

Bas I agree it is historic, I think that a lot of smart people know the storied old American consumer is about to go tits up and once the banks can't get him another line of credit it is all over.