rogerhb wrote:jaws wrote:it only [s]explains[/s] [s]guesses[/s] describes how it will behave.
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mattduke wrote:rogerhb wrote:jaws wrote:it only [s]explains[/s] [s]guesses[/s] describes how it [s]will [/s]would have behaved if event xyz had not happened.
I think you will agree that the peaking of world oil production is a physical, geological problem.
Replacing the energy lost as oil production peaks could be described as an economic problem, provided that there is:
a) a single or group of alternates that can be called upon to not just replace the lost oil but also allow for growth and
b) that deploying these alternates in significant enough quantities in the short time frame required, is feasible
If a) is proved to be false, would the economist still argue that it is an economic problem?
If b) is proved to be false, I would argue that this is no different than not having the alternate available for harvesting in the first place. Not enough energy = not enough energy and the economists dogma is that we’ll always have enough energy.
Kinder Morgan Canada says it can't take more crude to West CoastAnalysts and market sources have speculated that Kinder Morgan Canada, Kinder Morgan's Canadian unit, might be able to take more crude through its 225,000 barrel-a-day TransMountain (TMX) pipeline, which runs from Edmonton, Alberta, to refineries in the Washington state, Puget Sound area. Crude can be shipped from Washington to markets in California, and Kinder Morgan currently loads about two tankers a month at its West Coast dock for Californian markets.
However, shipper demand is already greater than the pipeline can take, Kinder Morgan Canada spokesman Philippe Reicher said.
"We're actually seeing apportionment on that pipeline and there's no spare capacity," Reicher said. Apportionment is when nominations for the pipeline exceed its capacity to carry crude.
On Sunday, BP said that it would begin shutting down all production at Prudhoe Bay, the largest producing field in the U.S., after discovering severe pipeline corrosion and a small oil leak. The move will cut crude supplies by about 400,000 barrels a day, dramatically curtailing the pool of crude available to refineries on the U.S. West Coast.
FatherOfTwo wrote:But if we’re using economics to drive how we direct our lives, and these economic rules have put us through an unsustainable growth spurt, only to fall back flat on our faces, then economics, as they are currently defined and implemented, is a fatally flawed science.
CrudeAwakening wrote:What you won't hear economists discuss very often, are the wobbly foundations of their subject. And an intellectual edifice built on wobbly foundations may, unsurprisingly, lead to problems.
FoxV wrote:Basically the great depression all over again except the US is the Weimer republic of the 21st Century.
nth wrote:US may owe a lot, but US investors have more than enough money to cover all foreign-owned debt plus more.
FoxV wrote:The big question would be then how would the governement get this money moving after a serious stock crash (DOW at 3000-5000) and a good round of bank and bond collapses after those ARMs show their true colours (risk)
FoxV wrote:it'll be really interesting to see how the government would instigate that solution (Tax investors? Have you gone mad?)
However you are right, as much as I would bemoan US financial irresponsiblility, they do have a hell of a lot of money down there (although a good chuck of it in ficticious paper).
The big question would be then how would the governement get this money moving after a serious stock crash (DOW at 3000-5000) and a good round of bank and bond collapses after those ARMs show their true colours (risk)
After all this crap shakes itself out, investors will be gun shy for years to come
nth wrote:After 1929 stock crash, US has been pretty good at manageing stock crashes. Stock crash in itself is not that bad, but what it can lead is what is dangerous. Depending on what cause this future crash, US may or may not be able to handle it
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