THE "Telling Others About Peak Oil" Thread pt 1 (merged) Ar.

[vision-master]

There’s some peace received in knowing the truth about PO. Better than not knowing and living with frustration and fear cause you don’t know what the heck is going on. I really don’t have a good plan if TSHTF, but feel philologically better now for whatever the future brings anyhoo.

[Zardoz]

We've talked about this in many threads, and I'll reiterate what I've said before: I get a completely different reaction from people than all of you seem to be getting.

I really think it's because living out here in this massive megalopolis brings home to everybody how much we depend on oil, and how much of it we're using. It's hard to deny how much is being burned up when the evidence of it slaps you hard in the face every day.

Absolutely everybody I talk to about the "coming oil crunch", as I always call it, gets it immediately and agrees that things are going to get ugly. An example:

Last Easter our family got together at a restaurant for lunch. In the group was my older brother's four grown kids, ages 35 to 44. We were chatting about various stuff when the subject of gas prices came up and I casually said that it would only get worse, and that things could get out of hand if supply started running short of demand, which "a lot of pundits think could happen very soon", as I put it.

I didn't have to say another word. All four of them and their respective spouses then took off on a tirade of how wasteful our society was, how ridiculously bad the public transportation system was, how dependent we were on oil in general and imported oil in particular, and how everybody knows that we can't go on like this for ever.

I just sat back and listened to them rave. They all sounded like a bunch of regulars from these forums.

Another example: My neighbor caught sight of my new Civic and came over to have a close look. He was really interested because he was thinking of replacing his SUV with exactly the model I have. We talked about its mileage, I mentioned the cost of gas, and he said "It can only get higher. I think we'll be paying like they do in Europe in a couple of years."

I responded that we may be looking at gas rationing in the near future because of China's and India's demand, and he said that it was probably inevitable, and "there's only so much oil out there to be had. We're going to completely run out some day." I nodded in agreement.

This is what I'm getting from everybody. Nobody blows it off. I guess it's this crazy place we live in. It's hard to deny what's going on around you 24 hours a day.

[XOVERX]

I am of the opinion that PO will come upon us artificially in the next 2 or 3 months as a result of an attack on Iran.

It is only logical to me that Iran will shut down the straits by destroying oil infrastructure all over the ME.

And there the world will be, past the event horizon, unknowing, falling deeper and deeper, deeper into the black hole, each day falling further and further, deeper and deeper, no escape, downward, ever downward, the old world just a dream remembered, flickering out, mankind wandering through total darkness while bathed in bright white sunshine.

[paoniapbud]

In Colorful Colorado (as the sign at the border calls it) people are usually one of a few stripes: someone will figure it out eventually; we have renewables; or what oil problem? Near Boulder where I live it is counter to what you might think. Instead of a bunch of PO'ers, you have a huge mix of rich people who don't give a flying fuck because they have cash and don't worry about pedestrian things like that, OR you have the overeducated engineering-techno-geek who tells you that ethanol/wind/nuclear blahblah will save the day. It's maddening how educated these people are and yet how obtuse. Jeez...

[perdition79]

I don't waste my time on people who will never get it until there's no fuel available at any price.

That sounds like my recruitment tool, my way of sugar-coating PO. My line: "You're complaining about $3 a gallon gasoline, with $4 on the way. What are you going to do when gas becomes scarce?"

[Colorado-Valley]

Life is sweet right now. Not too worried about my mortgage, credit cards, etc. because I know that i will be in bankruptcy(along with everyone else) in a few years time anyway. Let the good times roll, for now.

Paoniabud, are you sure that people with mortgage and credit-card debt won't be working on some Brown and Root corporate farm ... I didn't say "plantation" ... for the rest of their natural lives if this all goes down in an authoritarian way?

I often wonder about those "civilian inmate camps" currently under construction. What the heck are they for?

[And_over]

What I've found that works is instead of just delving into PO right away, you go with the simpler, easier items that people are already open to and understand.

Start with "instability in the oil supply." Mention Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, etc. Then go into the environmental stuff. Global warming, habitat destruction, resource depletion (starts opening them up), whatever.

Then dispel whatever little myth they believe (they always believe something that isn't true or won't happen for a long time, usually fuel cells, ethanol, or fusion)

THEN mention peak oil. I've found that going along these lines works:
"Yea so as you can see (fuel cells, ethanol, whatever) isn't really going to help us for awhile. But what I'm really worried about is a drop in supply. I've recently read about this thing called the peak of oil production. That's the point where we've used up half the world's oil reserves, and from that point on, regardless of how much you need, you start being able to produce less and less oil.

They say something about not understanding.

"Well you know it's kinda like a slushie. You know how easy it is to drink for the first part, it just goes through the straw. But a little bit after you've gotten halfway through, you know how it gets harder? You have to keep sticking the straw into different parts of the slushie, and you still only get alittle bit each time, even though you've still technically got a bunch left. It;s kinda like that. The exact same thing has been seen to happen in both individual oil wells, fields, and even our own nationally oil production, which peaked in the 70s."

This whole slushie thing reallu works and usually gets them going. I then go over the bare basics of PO theory and slowly get kinda doomy on them. THen the next time I see them, I give then a shortened version of Matt Savinar's website (send people to a website called lifeaftertheoilcrash.net and they start distrusting you). That really gets them going (especially if they are democrats, but I tailor it for Republicans as well). So far this has worked really well for recruiting people for my club, and I recommend it for anyone.

BTW, Boulder is sweet.

[Wednesday]

Knowledge of PO has really helped me in my stuggle to overcome the lust for things and objects that I don't really need. It's still a daily struggle and the battle is never over.

It has also caused me to take up some sustainable practices. I still have a long way to go.

It has caused me to care more about my local community. I'm invested in ways I never would have been before.

Life is hard, but it doesn't need to be any harder than it has to be. I feel a sense of some control over what direction my transition takes.

I know I'll have to deal with hardship, but I dont have to live with fear.

[rsch20]

that slushie analogy is very good.

[kasunart]

The "Slushie Model"...that's fantastic, I'll definately try that one in the future.

I'm with Zardoz, a high percentage of people I chat with lately are amazingly more aware (whether they know the term PO or not) than I would have given them credit for. I met some fellow computer software nerd types at a social event (art opening) and someone brought up the housing bubble and it went on to PO from there, for a good hour or two, among 6 of us (mostly strangers).

And, while "business as usual" is the norm in many people's lives, I DO get the feeling that many see it coming and realize the party's over.

I've had a few that thought I was a total nut, but were willing to listen. I even spoke to the president of the company I work for about it, who's MR BABY BOOM himself, and I could tell he was quite scared and took me seriously.

My dad, on the other hand, shrugged it off and said technology will save us when the costs get too high....

[rsch20]

I also agree that more people are becoming aware, thats a good thing I think. hopefully soon there will be a 'tipping point' where it's no longer taboo and becomes mainstream.

[SoothSayer]

I also agree that more people are becoming aware, thats a good thing I think. hopefully soon there will be a 'tipping point' where it's no longer taboo and becomes mainstream.

.. but for many (most?) they will see no way out, on a global, national or personal level.

The media will project a future full of gloom, energy shortages, food & water problems etc .... with very little hope of a solution.

At say a 5% per year (compound) gap between supply & demand, the standard of living & economic projections would be stark enough to make even optimists flinch.

No wonder we don't hear much about it in the mainstream media.

I suppose the governments hope that they can "fudge" the issue year by year ... a major war or bird flu or something else off-the-wall might save them/us in time!

[vision-master]

And then we have these kind.

bla bla bla peak oil this peak oil that.
I think its just more psych-ops to train us to be happy to
pay whatever they want for this 'scarce' resource.

I doubt oil is even a fossil fuel.

"Simply stated, we believe those who say we are running out of oil are wrong. We have plenty, maybe even an inexhaustible amount available deep within the earth. We are sitting on more proven petroleum reserves than ever before, despite the increasing rate at which we are consuming petroleum products. New and gigantic oilfields are being discovered at an increasing rate, in places the fossil fuel theory would never have been predicted possible.

"If we are running out of oil, why are worldwide oil reserves today at historically high levels? Since 1980, proven oil reserves have gone from 645 billion barrels to 1.28 trillion barrels."

The problem, Smith says, is not oil scarcity, but rather, a refining crisis. "Today, the U.S. oil industry is sitting on a quantity of oil reserves that has never been higher. Still, we have built no new refineries, and the refineries in operation are producing at or near capacity."

Black Gold Stranglehold debunks the myth that the world is running out of oil through clear and compelling research based on the abiotic theory of oil. The abiotic theory asserts that oil is not a product of decaying dinosaurs and prehistoric forests. The scientific evidence cited in Black Gold Stranglehold suggests that oil is constantly being produced by the earth, far below the earth's surface, and that it is brought to attainable depths by the centrifugal forces of the earth's rotation.

As a result, Black Gold Stranglehold argues that the extremely unbalanced pattern of consumption and production makes it possible for foreign governments, corrupt political leaders, terrorist organizations, and oil conglomerates to place the citizens and economy of the United States in a stranglehold of supply and demand.


And a couple of audio links:

http://media.swissamerica.com/features/ ... 015331.mp3

http://media.swissamerica.com/features/ ... 015547.mp3

[Lore]

My grandparents own 500 acres on the western slope of Colorado. I thought it would make a perfect PO getaway. My Mom pointed out that the soil isn't the best for growing grains or fruit. It has been a cattle ranch for about fifty years. If it came down to it though I would move there.

My wife and I have wanted to build a small cabin on the ranch for years now. I tell my grandparents the reason why and more confused looks. They grew up in really hard times. Not to make light of it but I really mean HARD times. We're talking Dickens here folks. They have worked SUPER hard their entire lives. They can't imagine going back to a world that they grew up in. Imagine that, we will be going full circle in their lifetimes, around 80 years or so.

We will see. There is plenty of game on the ranch and it is somewhat defensible with one side of the ranch overlooking a canyon about 800 feet deep with dropoffs that are tough to climb. I would build a cabin near this "overlook". There are three small reservoirs. No fish but plenty of waterfowl. I love birds but I would eat them if I had to.

Grandpa had okay luck gorwing oats years ago. I would try that if need be. Fresh water will be an issue though. Ther eis plenty of irrigation, but post-PO the fuel intensive ditch cleaning will end, so that is super iffy. Rainfall may be the only way depending.

I am ready to move to the ranch when it comes time. It may be nice to get away to a simpler way of life.

I've grown up under similar circumstances and being a "baby boomer" raised on the farm as well have been there and done a lot of that. I really think that if you decide to go live on the ranch, do it for other reasons then just PO. One thing is for sure you can never go back, no matter what kind of wishful dreaming is out there about it. Living "Days of Future Past", is not going to happen (boomers will know from where the reference comes). In a world that should ever come to such a destiny I have misgivings there will be much in the way of game animals to hunt or for that matter fresh water to drink. However, not to worry, humankind perhaps may come to this and not just for PO reasons, but doubt very much in your or my lifetime, or in the life we have left. A simpler way of life is a certainly a worthy and realistic goal.

[vision-master]

Aaaaaaaaa, yes the Moody Blues. Another one is; "You can never go home".

[Jogger]

Are Oprah, Dr. Phil, and all the other daytime talk show hosts aware of Peak Oil? What do you think?

[robski]

Strike me! Dr Phil could make a few quid out of peak oil couldn't he?

There's a thought...

[rogerhb]

The only reason I could possibly care is that there may be some voters who really do rely on these folk for all the important decisions in their lives.

[Doly]

OK, how do you get these people to get to know something? Any way of getting in touch with them?

[Ferretlover]

So I caught wind of peak oil and the possible impacts (everything from anarchy to authoritarianism, chaos to utopia) and have been reading and learning as much as I can.

I've even brought it into my work, making a case that its something we need to be aware of and planning for. I don't yet have a full green light to study it in detail, but I've been given the go-ahead to prepare a problematique type document that outlines the issue and its strategic interest to our work.

In the course of this, I've tried to explain it to my girlfriend and friends, and the family will be coming up next. In each case so far its been the same response of smirking and eye-rolling, or faith in technology. I hate being characterized as soom doomsayer shouting that the sky is falling, but its been really hard to get anyone to take me seriously. A few can see the simple logic that oil is finite and the price will go up long before we've tapped the last drop, and can sort of see the effect a doubling or quadrupling of the price of oil could have. Despite that, most still have this faith in alternative energies being able to preserve our current way of life, and don't believe that there is anything to prepare for other than swapping their gasoline engines for hydrogen engines, and plunking a solar panel on the roof of their house.

When I told my girlfriend I intend to learn as much as I can about basic agriculture, and to take up hunting (a past-time in my family that I skipped out on in my youth) she looked at me with some cross between fear and incredulity. She asked what we can do about it, and I said "nothing, just prepare for what might happen".

I don't believe we are helpless, but much like global warming we're at a stage that we cannot turn back what is coming, we can only prepare to handle a new reality.

But on the whole I've found so far that people:

a) don't believe there is a problem period.
b) have such unyielding faith in technology that they believe a solution will arrive without them doing anything differently.
c) Can see the problem but find it too terrifying or difficult to think about, so choose not to.

I know for my part everything I see looks different. I go to the 7/11 and buy a jug of milk and think to myself "this won't be here before long". The cars, the houses, everything just looks so temporary and doomed. The TV, the internet, the radio, video games - what will survive? It's tough, and the only consolation I really have is that we don't know the timeline exactly - altho from what I've read our best case scenario is 5 years till peak oil, altho we may manage to avoid the price shocks for some time after that. That's our window for setting up a transition strategy.

I'm dealing with it, but conveying the problem to others isn't going so hot.