THE Matt Savinar Thread (merged)

[Whitecrab]

Of course, if the optmists are right and the peak is 20-30 years away, then, any career plans might still be valid ideas...

[spork]

Why should I quit my education right now just because something MIGHT happen.

Yes, we will run out of oil. BUT we don't know for sure what will happen. It's purely speculation at this point.

What would I gain by my quitting my school now? I've one degree, I'm starting on a PhD.

I might get hit by a car and and loose the brain capacity to think about complex issues that I need to for my work that doesn't stop me now why should something like Peak Oil?

Can't predict the future...

[Pops]

True Spork, if you believe Licho, it's Morning in America - and everywhere else.

I think it's prudent however, to keep your eyes open and have a plan “B”. IMHO, economic disruptions in the short to medium term are probable and keeping one’s overhead low should be a priority.

I guess that is a fact of life for a student anyway, huh?

[spork]

True Spork, if you believe Licho, it's Morning in America - and everywhere else.

I think it's prudent however, to keep your eyes open and have a plan “B”. In my honest opinion, economic disruptions in the short to medium term are probable and keeping one’s overhead low should be a priority.

I guess that is a fact of life for a student anyway, huh?

Yup.

I'm not saying I disbelieve, just saying, what do I gain by quitting now?

More education never hurt anyone.

[spork]

Also education is one thing that a bad economy can't take from me.

[spork]

Spork, Don't misunderstand me... it doesnt hurt to learn a trade or ocupation, but like Pops said try your best not to go into debt and find a skill you like and could be useful in the future> leaf

A: My wife is working, our cars are paid off and I'm not going into debt
B: I'm in agriculture. I think that'll be pretty valid in the future.

But hey, maybe I'm wrong.

[MattSavinar]

Keep in mind, the guy who emailed me believes the peak and decline to be imminent.

I think that he (like many people) realize what is going on, but are in denial. They understand intellectually, but not internally what this means.

If you honestly believe that we've got 20 plus years before the shtf, then by all mean go into 100,000 plus in debt to get an advanced degree.

Remember, that it's not just the Peak Oil iceberg that is going to destroy our economy. We've got the debt bubble, the housing bubble, global warming, etc. .

And then there's the outsourcing issue.

If I knew 5 years ago what I know now, there is no way I would have gone to law school.

No way.

Matt

[spork]

Keep in mind, the guy who emailed me believes the peak and decline to be imminent. --snip--
If I knew 5 years ago what I know now, there is no way I would have gone to law school. No way.

What would you have done differently Matt? Just curious.

I figure even during the decline people will want to eat. Hopefully I can contribute to controlling plant diseases so that we can.

[MattSavinar]

Deciding to change careers, abandon a particular proffession you have worked your whole life for, quit school, etc. . . this is where the rubber meets the road folks.

The ability to adapt is what is going to separate the men from the boys in the years to come.

Anybody not know the parable of the monkey with his arm stuck in the tree?

Matt

[spork]

[quote="MattSavinar"]Deciding to change careers, abandon a particular proffession you have worked your whole life for, quit school, etc. --snip-- Anybody not know the parable of the monkey with his arm stuck in the tree?/quote] Once again, I asked what you would do differently? Quitting school doesn't do squat to help anyone in the long run without a plan.

[MattSavinar]

Leaf,

5 years ago, I was just graduating college. I would have become a teacher (which was my alternate plan, anyhow) and started doing what I'm doing now, which is acquiring skills that will be increasingly usefull as we slide down the downslope. (Bike repair and alternative medicine are the first two I've picked)

I also would have invested in Gold - since it has gone up 50 percent in that time!

Don't get me wrong - my legal education was not a waste. If you look at my site, it is written in the "socratic" method using what is known as "IRAC"

IRAC stands for "Issue, Rule, Analysis, Conclusion" - it's a writing "template" used in the legal proffession. It was so beat into me during school that I wrote the site in that format without even realizing it until somebody pointed out to me, "Matt - your site is perfectly IRACed!"

Matt

[Whitecrab]

[quote="MattSavinar"]Anybody not know the parable of the monkey with his arm stuck in the tree?/quote]Nope, I don't. Is it an easy story to tell?

As for education, I would say, you can stick to doing what you like while hedging your bets. i.e., getting that business degree and spending your summers working for energy companies (so if other sectors collapse your resume has an edge), taking a dual degree in what you love and something useful post-peak, picking up electives that will help you jump careers if needed, joining the solar car and martial arts clubs at school. You can try to increase your odds of dealing with dim ages and worse, or try to find another way to attack your dream that leaves you more viable in the event of a quick crash.

[John Newman]

I was kind of thinking the same thing after reading some of the peak oil sites. I have the summer to study and think about which way to go in life. I kind of wish now I would not have went into so much debt to go to Penn. I also read what Matt told the college student and it was just like he was talking to me. I had the same thoughts and questions. It was some help. Matt I have some good freinds who also are very serious on this topic. We want the facts and we are not getting them at college. Right before the year ended my best friend who brought this issue to me brought this topic up in one of his classes. He is very sharp and clever and knows oil very well. Well the topic went on for the entire class and he had the instructor puzzled. Anyway the instructor and students downplayed the entire isue and ignored it. They really think hydrogen is the solution. Seriously thats how the class ended. That oil will phase out and hydrogen will come into play and we won't even have a change in lifestyle. Matt its like no one cares they just want their little belief systems to keep playing out.
John

[MattSavinar]

The thing with the grad school article is that it is something very close to home. I'm only a year out of school, so I can still relate to folks who are students, or who are paying off their student loans etc. .

As I stated in a separate thread, if I was applying to law school in 2004 in stead of 1999, and I found out about Peak Oil, there is no way I would go through with the process.

Law school is a three year process. 4 years if you live in a state like California where the Bar passage rate is only 50 percent and the test is only administered twice a year.

If I was in my first year right now, I would cut my losses and move onto something else.

If I was near the end of the process, I would finish.

If I was in the middle, I don't know what I would do.

Its situations like these where tough decisions have to be made. It is extremely painful to realize what you have worked so long for was largely in vain.

Its so painful that many people decide to delude themselves with thoughts such as:

"It will be like the 1970's. We got through that. We'll get through this."

or

"There will be a rough 5-10 years and then we will make a transition. No need to be a 'doomsayer' and make signifigant life changes."

This style of delusional thinking allows people to fool themselves into not having to make really, really, tough choices.

It is very childish.

Which is why the motto, "Deal with reality or reality will deal with you" is at the top of every page of my site.

Reality can be a bitch. Dealing with her is often so painful that people opt not to. Having her deal with you, however, is even more painful.

1 percent of us are finding out how painful it can be to deal with her.

99 percent of folks are going to find out just how painful it is when she deals with them.

Matt

[Guest]

Is there a link to this College Degree article? Or was this one of those newsletter exclusive things? If so, could I get a summary of what was said by whom? Thanks.

[dmtu]

I'm not making suggestions but here is something to think about.

http://www.spe.org/spe/jpt/jsp/jptmonth ... 47,00.html

There are conclusions at the end of the article if you would like to scroll first.

[dmtu]

I've been reading Larry Everest' Oil Power Empire http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/ ... 26-7795953 .
I would like to think that the book is packed full of lies and deceit however with the strong bibliography at the end of the book I'm afraid the ideas presented are pretty close to true. It chronicles the extent of Western involvement in the Mid East, especially by Briton and the USA from the early 1900s and the methods used to control the region. Iran recently told the world community that it "must accept a nuclear Iran". Needless to say the world probably won't and, the US most certainly will not. Iran is due to become an unwilling client state soon, as to Russia, I can only hope "we all just get along".

If interested you can also see
http://larryeverest.com/articles.htm

My biggest problem with Larry in a personal sense is his apparent stand for socialism. His affiliation with http://www.rwor.org/home-e.htm has a tendency to discredit his work from my standpoint.

[MattSavinar]

Guest:

The article is at:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/postoiltimes.html

and click on "Business School"

Matt

[John Newman]

Matt, I am pretty sure I won't be back at college in the fall. I have really hit the books as of late on oil depletion. I also bought "The Party is Over". and read the "Letter From the Future". I dont see the need to waste more money at college....worst case I do have around 50 credits under my belt if things go well. I can also go back.
I am looking into this fall some classes at the vocational school. I am interested in horticulture.
Thanks for the reply.
John

[MattSavinar]

Hey everybody,

I just got done checking my site stats. I had gotten some hits from what appeared to be a science fiction or video game board. Couldnt' really tell when I checked it out.

Anyways, there was one poster, "Peak Oilst" who had read my book, and all the books or articles of all the usual suspects (hanson, heinberg, etc. . ). He was trying to convince the other board members that this was a serious life and death issue.

As one might expect, he got the usual reponses like, "Dude, don't you know hydrogren fuel cells are going to be ready before all that" and "I'm not concerned cause I don't drive that much. So what, people will just walk more." or the classic, "Hey, a post-apocalyptic world will be cool! I can't wait."

Whoever "Peak Oilst" is, his posts cleary showed he has his sh-t together, mentally and otherwise. There was the sense of urgency that many of us feel coupled with a "no illusions" outlook. He also had what looked about as good a plan as anybody could given the restraints of the situation.

If he's on this board, I would very much like him to contact me. I would love if he could write an article aimed at college students like himself. I get 2-4 emails per week from people 16-20 years old who are concerned, oftentimes terrified about the situation, asking me for advice.

I used to reply individually, but have found I no longer have the time, or the emotional wherewithall to do so. Even when I did reply individually, I never felt I adequately answered their questions. I typically offer them a free PDF of the book and suggest they post here.

I would love to have an in depth article about from somebody who is their shoes and how he or she has decided to tackle it.

So if Peak Oilst is here, send me a PM or email me matt@lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Matt