by gg3 » Mon 25 Oct 2004, 04:58:29
However, Putin did sign Kyoto, bringing it into force. What I find interesting about the mainstream media's treatment of Putin is that he is always shown in photographs taken from slightly above him looking down, and with his eyes glancing to the side. That is, these photographs deliberately convey the impression of "sneaky."
Regardless of the etiology of 9-11, attacking Iran would be the height of stupidity. Iran doesn't even have a credible capability yet, their uranium enrichment facility is still a long way from completion, so there is still plenty of time for negotiation. Given that the head of Iran's oil production, Dr. Bhaktiari, speaks freely and vigorously about peak oil (he's also a participant on this board), it's more likely that Iran is primarily seeking to supply its own energy needs with nuclear power so it can sell more of its oil to the world as the price goes through the roof. Reason it out, that would be the logical thing for any oil-producing nation to do.
The smart thing for Iran to do right now would be to declare that it was putting its nuclear enrichment program on hold pending further international negotiations. In essence stall for time, at least until after the election, and if Kerry wins, after he's sworn in. That is, don't give Bush an excuse to invade on 3 November.
Here's another piece for you.
Over the summer came the news item that someone high in the Bush Admin had leaked to one of Chalabi's people (i.e. Iranian spies) the fact that the US had successfully decrypted the top-level Iranian cipher systems. (Leaking that kind of stuff is a serious crime, that item was "top secret / SCI-crypto", and SCI means "sensitive compartmented information", which only goes out to a small list of individuals, listed by name, so those are your possible suspects, and yet no one has been charged...)
The immediate result would have necessarily been that Iran upgraded its cryptographic systems, presumably to a level it felt the US couldn't read (or could only read with much difficulty and delay; public-key systems such as RSA and its derivatives including PGP are not impenetrable).
This in turn would result in a backlog of Iranian ciphertext intercepts awaiting cryptanalysis, similar to the backlog of cleartext intercepts awaiting language translation prior to 9-11. (People at NSA are already majorly pissed-off at the Bush Admin for making their jobs harder, and this is a classic case.)
So then the Bush Admin has an excuse: "Look at all the traffic we can't read!" and then, "Look, there's been an *increase* in the traffic, we still can't read it, but it *must* mean something bad is going on!" This becomes a rationale for increasing the rhetoric level and building public support for some kind of aggressive move on Iran.
Much like the bad intel on Iraq, except this time the "proof" is *itself* "negative." Instead of "we have pictures of mobile anthrax labs" (which are later not found, creating a credibility problem), it would be "we have traffic we can't read, which means something sinister is afoot!", and there is no way to disprove that point later.
With Iraq, there was no way Saddam could "prove a negative" (prove he *didn't* have WMDs). With Iran, it's starting to look like there'll be no way that American critics, much less Iranian officials, can "disprove a negative" (disprove that the unread traffic is not sinister).
Watch out folks, this is not good. My item above is only one datapoint, but it's consistent with the others we've seen, and there are probably many more we haven't seen yet.
Y'all better get out there and vote, and then do volunteer work watching the polls for the rest of the day.