Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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Starvid wrote:Drilling in ANWR will probably be needed later, but doing it before serious conservation and efficency reforms have been implemented is just perverse.
As someone said, drilling in ANWR is the same as cutting down the last tree on Easter Island. The allegory is not perfect (oil is not renewable, we have other sources of energy) but it is still rather striking.
DoctorDoom wrote: Another quibble is that they claim 500,000 barrels / day from ANWR won't make a difference in prices. Yet we've seen that because of the inelasticity of both supply and demand that small imbalances have led to sharp price rises over the past year. An extra 500,000 barrels / day could easily tip the price of crude the other way - for a while. (IMO that's not a reason to drill ANWR, the goal of energy policy shouldn't be to keep prices low per se, but to assure that needs continue to be met.)
mekrob wrote:I used to be furiously against ANWR because it really wouldn't help out much, and I just wasn't that sure about the environmental damage that might happen and more importanly the precedent it would set for other refuges and the coastlines. I always thought that it was best to save this fairly massive amount of oil in case of an emergency or for the future shortage.
But given enough time to think (10 hours to Pittsburgh), I realized that whether Peak Oil hits in the next few years or not, demand will probably start to outstrip supply and future supply disruptions are very likely, meaning that prices will surely reach over $100. Rather than risking the loss of the public, the Congress and President would most likely in this scenario push through drilling and make it very easy to drill whereever the oil companies desire. Consumer rage would increase and demand vast amounts of cheap oil. This would force the oil companies to risk oil spills and environmental damage to the coast or refuge. It just seems much more likely that in the future when this oil is needed much much more, then people won't care if the environment is damaged as long as they get their oil. So drilling now would ensure for at least a short time that much damage would not occur.
Sorry, just some ramblings of mine.
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