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Refinery news (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Refinery shortage - ICF

Unread postby bbadwolf » Thu 29 Sep 2005, 19:19:29

This thread has me wondering a bit. Consider this:

The US has recently become a net food importer. They import clothing, shoes and wood. They import energy big time! Most manufacturing is outsourced to other countries. Even your call centres are moving to India. They make few of their electronic toys. Their huge cars and trucks are nearly useless in the current price environment.

Now the refineries will be moving to the Middle East too! I'm getting hard pressed to see where you have any economic advantage at all besides printing the world's money.

In short, if you don't invade countries and steal their stuff, you'll have to make it yourself!

-bbad
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Re: Refinery shortage - ICF

Unread postby seahorse2 » Fri 07 Oct 2005, 12:42:09

Peak refinery has been confirmed by the Saudis. It seems that no one except me accepts that Peak Refinery means Peak Oil right now. I've asked Lynch on the Lynch forum to comment on this, he has not. Peak Refinery, if true, means world economic growth stops, bc no more refined product comes on line to meet growth. Here's the article, also posted on this site under news.


Published on Tuesday, October 4, 2005 by ASPO-USA

Sadad al Husseini sees peak in 2015
By Steve Andrews

Sadad al Husseini, recently retired head of exploration and production for Saudi Aramco, offered very insightful comments during an interview with Peter Maass in Saudi Arabia. Maass reported Husseini’s perspective in his August 21, 2005 piece “The Breaking Point” (posted under “Articles” on this site) in the New York Times Magazine . In a follow-up email exchange with ASPO-USA’s Steve Andrews, Husseini said he would be unable to attend and present at the November 10-11 Denver peak oil conference, but he did offer pointed commentary about peak oil production. While his comments are more optimistic than those of Colin Campbell, Matt Simmons, Chris Skrebowski and a host of others, they certainly strike a vastly more realistic chord than the typical fare from Saudi Aramco press releases and presentations.

Q: My question to you, and I would like to share your answer with attendees at the conference as well as with our state’s Energy Office here in Colorado: Do you have an approximate range when you estimate that world oil production might peak? Given that you won’t be able to join us [at the November 10-11 Denver peak oil conference], your comments on this point would be tremendously appreciated.

A. Thank you for your e-mail. In response to your question, the answer is a little long winded but this is an important matter that needs a clear response.

Oil capacity today is not production limited but rather processing limited. That is to say, the DOE reports the world's refining capacity has leveled at around 83 mmbd for some time and refinery expansions are slow and costly. We have seen new downstream capacity investments average 300 mbd/year over the last several years. Doubling that rate would still put major changes in refinery expansions well into 2010 and beyond. Therefore the refinery capacities are now the effective ceiling for oil production.

The DOE shows oil demand (presumably after refining) is increasing at something like 1.5 - 2.0 % per year. This was doable in the past because of the excess refinery capacity that prevailed until 2003/2004. From here forward, satisfying oil demand will require 1.2 - 1.6 mmbd of new refinery capacity per year or 4 to 5 new world-scale refineries every year. These normally require 4 - 5 years to execute at a cost of no less than $ 2 B per 100,000 b/d of capacity. With deep conversion and petrochemicals, the investments are even higher.

Because of these massive requirements, I believe the production outlook will be gradual production increases over the next ten years limited by slow refining capacity expansions.

Given the current outlook in terms of global exploration and development, the rate of investments in the oil value chain, energy prices, and the prevailing legal and political investment climate, I believe oil production will level off at around the 90 - 95 mmbd by 2015. This plateau can be sustained beyond 2020 at continuously higher oil prices and with rapid improvements in overall energy efficiencies throughout the world.

A rapid global refinery expansion program that eventually matches an increasing oil demand rate of 1.5 - 2.0% per year cannot be achieved before 2015 at the earliest and is highly improbable in any case.

Therefore my answer is: under the current circumstances and outlook, oil is likely to peak at a 95 mmbd plateau by 2015 and can then be sustained well beyond 2020 at increasing real oil prices.

Best wishes with your conference and I hope to read more about it in the forthcoming weeks.
Article found at :
http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=9498

Original article :




Energy Bulletin
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Re: Refinery shortage - ICF

Unread postby FrankRichards » Fri 07 Oct 2005, 13:12:14

seahorse2 wrote:Peak refinery has been confirmed by the Saudis. It seems that no one except me accepts that Peak Refinery means Peak Oil right now. I've asked Lynch on the Lynch forum to comment on this, he has not. Peak Refinery, if true, means world economic growth stops, bc no more refined product comes on line to meet growth. Here's the article, also posted on this site under news.


It's nice to find someone else who's actually read that article, but I don't find it quite as pessimistic as you do: I read it as a plateau with small (0.5%) annual increases for the next ten years, then another 5 years before depletion really cuts in. I find this plausible since a lot of crude will be found that can't be refined in the next few years and will thus be available in the 2015-2020 time frame.

So while growth will certainly be constrained, there will be some oil growth in the next ten years, plus whatever alternatives are brought online, which again will be nonzero even if small.
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Re: Refinery shortage - ICF

Unread postby seahorse2 » Fri 07 Oct 2005, 13:17:54

Frank,

If we are at peak refinery capacity right now, how can we refine this new oil growth, in any amount? That's the point. ICF says we are at 100% refinery capacity in 2005, confirmed by Pickens, confirmed by Bush's latest speech, confirmed now in this article by the Saudis. How will we refine any new oil production from now until 2010?
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Re: Refinery shortage - ICF

Unread postby cube » Fri 07 Oct 2005, 14:44:16

retiredguy wrote:.............
My prediction: The US government will underwrite the construction of any/all new refineries in the US. Similar incentive to that given the nuclear industry in the new energy bill. The American public will assume the financial risk.
ha ha that's a good one. I don't think so. Just about every public opinion poll out there shows the majority of Americans blame the oil companies for this current mess. The average Joe-Sixpack is clueless about PO.

With the oil money rolling in right now I don't think any proposal to use tax payers money to ensure an oil refinery is going to fly. That's a political bomb that even GWB isn't stupid enough to touch.....unless GOD tells him to do it! :wink:
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Marathon Petroleum Company Joining Website Ad Campaign

Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Tue 29 Nov 2005, 19:43:17

I'm not sure if this is new or not. But today in USA Today, there was an ad for energy conservation from marathon petroleum. It had this website on it:

http://www.marathonpetroleum.com/opinions/

The ad itself talked about how they prepared to increase 1 million gallons or barrels over the course of the years or somesuch. It was a pretty much a fluff ad and gave some simple tips on improving miles per gallon (like keeping your tires inflated..).

Thus, Marathon joins in on spending money to save some face as do the oil providers.

Weird that.
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Re: Refinery shortage - ICF

Unread postby seahorse » Thu 29 Jun 2006, 07:37:16

Saudi Arabia says 300k barrels of crude floating on ships due to lack of refinery capacity.

No Refinery Capacity
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Refinery Access: Port Fuchon Highway Sinks Into Gulf

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 19:21:45

Man vs. Nature, and nature is winning.

Excerpt:
Road to recovery sinking into Gulf Updated 7/18/2006 12:25 AM ET By Elliot Blair Smith, USA TODAY
LEEVILLE, La. — Gravestones trail into the water along Louisiana State Highway 1 within view of the mechanical-lift bridge that rises lazily above Bayou Lafourche to allow shrimp boats and tugs to pass.
The road and bayou curl together from local shipyards to deep-water oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, known as "the blue-collar coast."

This is the intersection of a fading Cajun dream, where French-speaking immigrants once fished and farmed sugarcane and cotton, and the jarring new reality that has transformed a deteriorating two-lane highway into an energy artery that carries crude oil and natural gas from the Gulf to the rest of the USA.

Nowhere in Louisiana are the nation's needs and the local population's desires so closely aligned as on the crumbling asphalt ribbon that reaches to Port Fourchon at the state's southern tip. Fourchon supply boats serve the giant Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, 18 miles into the Gulf, which offloads crude oil supplies from foreign tankers, and 75% of all deep-water Gulf oil and gas drilling.

Last year, Hurricane Katrina temporarily shut down most Gulf production and forced the evacuation of the peninsular strip of land that LA-1 traverses, laying bare the nation's dependence on a remote road that connects 16% of all U.S. oil supplies to 50% of the USA's refining capacity. Stranded energy supplies sent consumer prices soaring. The aftershocks rattle markets even now, amid a new hurricane season.
USA Today

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Re: That Sinking Feeling - Port Fuchon Highway Sinks Into Gu

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 21:41:35

in 50 years it might be a skin-diving location.
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Re: That Sinking Feeling - Port Fuchon Highway Sinks Into Gu

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 18 Jul 2006, 22:29:02

pedalling_faster wrote:in 50 years it might be a skin-diving location.


At least there will be some interesting pre-PO artifacts to look at.

Even in my home state of New Jersey, a story in a major newspaper predicts the entire 100 mile long NJ shore area, a very popular tourist destination in the summer, will be completely submerged in 50 years or so.
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Re: That Sinking Feeling - Port Fuchon Highway Sinks Into Gu

Unread postby NEOPO » Wed 19 Jul 2006, 02:33:43

The road was built because of hydrocarbons and hydrocarbons will destroy the road all compliments of Mom.

The irony.
Its a very beautiful thing.

The NJ shore was sustained to this point mainly because of vacationers/tourist's with access to cheap hydrocarbons.

Yep...... it is perfect in every way.
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Re: That Sinking Feeling - Port Fuchon Highway Sinks Into Gu

Unread postby shakespear1 » Wed 19 Jul 2006, 02:40:36

Mom wants the it and Mom takes it. A less that was forgotten for some time even though the warning signs were THERE !!!! 8)
Men argue, nature acts !
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"...In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation."

Alan Greenspan
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Re: That Sinking Feeling - Port Fuchon Highway Sinks Into Gu

Unread postby turmoil » Wed 19 Jul 2006, 12:51:57

Battle of New Orleans (2005-2006)

We built our levees but the water kept a comin.
There wasn't nigh as much as there was a while ago.
It came once more and we began to runnin'
up the mississippi from the Gulf of Mexico.


8)
"If you are a real seeker after truth, it's necessary that at least once in your life you doubt all things as far as possible"-Rene Descartes

"When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the truth"-Sherlock Holmes
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"The Incredible Journey Of Oil"

Unread postby Carlhole » Sun 27 May 2007, 17:46:06

http://www.abc.net.au/science/crude/

I didn't see this this excellent documentary posted anywhere. And the site says first published 5-27-07. So enjoy, if you haven't seen it.
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Re: "The Incredible Journey Of Oil"

Unread postby Johnston » Sun 27 May 2007, 19:49:28

Also this is a really good one:

http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/
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Re: "The Incredible Journey Of Oil"

Unread postby ohanian » Sun 27 May 2007, 21:33:16

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Re: "The Incredible Journey Of Oil"

Unread postby roccman » Sun 27 May 2007, 22:01:31

Amazing documentary...one of the best I have seen.

New concept I was not aware of..."ocean stagnation".

According to this film the north atlantic current shut down for tens days in 2004.

The doc ends with an ironic twist.

Well worth the watch and broken into 3 25-30 minute segments.

Thanks for posting.
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Re: "The Incredible Journey Of Oil"

Unread postby Carlhole » Sun 27 May 2007, 22:39:42

I loved the representation in this documentary depicting the amount of oil the world burns up every single year. The film shows a humongous skyscraper planted in the middle of Manhattan equal in volume to annual world oil consumption. It utterly dwarfs even the largest buildings surrounding it.

One marvels at the immensity of the volume -- doubly stunned when the doc mentions that each year an additional ten storeys are added to the already gargantuan buildng.
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Sour Crude Traded as if it Mattered

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 31 May 2007, 07:38:30

Check this out,


Dubai 'Sour' Futures Contract to Launch
Topics:Wall Street Journal Report | North America | New York City | Commodities | London | Britain | Middle East | Stock Market
Sectors:Oil and Gas
Companies:Nymex Holdings, Inc.By CNBC.com | 31 May 2007 | 06:24 AM ET Font size: The energy market could have a new benchmark oil price when Dubai launches its Middle East sour crude futures contract as an alternative to New York's NYMEX light crude oil futures and London's IPE Brent crude oil.

The futures contract starts trading at 6 pm New York time.

The launch comes after market players recently began to recognize London Brent crude futures as more representative of the global market than the main crude-oil benchmark trading on Nymex Holdings' NYMEX Holdings Inc (NMX)
127.29 UNCH 0%


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[NMX 127.29 --- UNCH (0%) ] New York Mercantile Exchange, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The Middle East contract launch is not expected to rob NYMEX of its market share. Instead NYMEX Chief Executive James Newsome predicts the contract to expand trading volumes, the paper said.

The Middle East accounts for about a third of global oil production.

The DME is a joint venture of Tatweer, a unit of the Dubai government's investment vehicle Dubai Holding, and the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The DME's objective is to give the Asian oil consumer a "more transparent, publicly traded pricing mechanism to gauge sour-crude prices and manage the risks of volatile energy markets", according to the Journal.

Sour crude has higher sulfur content and is more difficult to refine than types of lower-sulfur-content oil know as sweet crude.

There have been attempts before to develop a benchmark futures contract for Middle East sour, including one by the NYMEX in 1992, but those have failed to attract investor and trader interest, Reuters reported.

© 2007 CNBC.com


What does this say about the future of refining in the US? Which way will Asia go as it invests for the future? Which way will Western capital go for that matter?
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