Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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UIUCstudent01 wrote:It could easily slow down. This is very much like peak oil... some people say/think that because oil has always increased, that it will increase forever...
rsch20 wrote:katkinkate wrote:If oil production peaks next year, or has peaked already, there may not be enough energy to reach an 'omega point'.
and if Omega Point happens this year, Peak Oil may not be relevant due to the super-intelligence making the changes that we seem incapable of doing for ourselves. that could include an energy producing technology we are unaware of, or a 'curtailing' (read: extermination) of human activity to effectively stop our current consumption trends. or any number of possibilties that we are not smart enough to have even thought of.
Auntie_Cipation wrote:For anyone interested in an enjoyable introduction to the topic, I highly recommend Peter Russell's "Waking Up In Time."
Waking Up In Time
My personal opinions about how things will play out are really undefined, but I definitely agree with the general principles and found the book enlightening as well as enjoyable.
rsch20 wrote:I’ve read the other threads on this site about Mayan Calendar, John Titor, 9/11 etc. and I want to say that Omega Point is not a concept that should discredit Peak Oil with the ‘crazy by association’ gene.
We'll reach a point of diminishing returns.
Just because you see each successive point slope getting higher and higher doesn't mean that it will eventually turn into an exponental - almost horizantal line part of the graph. (I think thats what you call the omega point..)
It could easily slow down. This is very much like peak oil... some people say/think that because oil has always increased, that it will increase forever...
There's probably a limiting factor... it may be energy or it may be just the natural design of things...
So you really think a "super-intelligence" is capable of breaking the laws of physics as we know them?
Now that seems indeed a leap of faith
Let me first say that if we cannot learn to accept a steady state economy we won't get the chance to build on existing technology. The world will break down into chaos. I am trying to understand why you don't think that Omega Point could come along just in time to save us from peak oil?
That's my little partial criticism, but a few additions might be the speed at which technology is developed does not imply implementation. In fact unless human evolution is keeping pace with the very brightest minds there will be a growing number of people in each generation from here on out who tune out most of the change.
And if we are to get honest with our selves the vast majority of humans are still completely defficient in the technology that we consider 'basic' in the west. I have to say that I enjoy the idea of this sort of Star Tekky super tech next step to humanity stuff but like Tainter I believe that our society has reached its peak of complexity. Until there is a die-off and a reevaluation of social goals related to energy and science Omega point will never come.
If we survive peak oil we will have learned some very important lessons that I think could lead to world peace (honestly). From there colonizing Mars and human computer integration, all this stuff could happen. In fact I just read somewhere that this new chip called "The Cell" is about to revolution computing. Its a multiprocessor. We have barely made good use of the internet or the potential of computing as it is today and we are getting faster stuff everyday. My suspicion is that sociologically this will be detrimental.
A horrible crash is almost fated at this point. Its not that the system cannot change but the global economy is like a giant ocean liner you can't just turn these damn things on a dime. The more demand growth we allow the faster we will have to find alternatives at global scales when peak happens. I honestly believe most technology will become useless in a world facing over 5% demand destruction per year across the board. Prices are going to go through the roof, inflation, famine and war. Its the four horsemen buddy. I like the idea of Omega point its just that behind it you need a society and an economy that is rock solid ripped and ready to run and peak oil will probably make that impossible.
the potential implications of omega point scare me far more than peak oil.
perhaps it's a good thing that it will likely never happen due to PO and a variety of other factors.
ElijahJones wrote:If we survive peak oil we will have learned some very important lessons that I think could lead to world peace (honestly). From there colonizing Mars and human computer integration, all this stuff could happen. In fact I just read somewhere that this new chip called "The Cell" is about to revolution computing. Its a multiprocessor. We have barely made good use of the internet or the potential of computing as it is today and we are getting faster stuff everyday. My suspicion is that sociologically this will be detrimental.
FatherOfTwo wrote:UIUCstudent01 wrote:It could easily slow down. This is very much like peak oil... some people say/think that because oil has always increased, that it will increase forever...
Just playing devils advocate here, (and I don't want to hijack this thread) but aside from the abiotic oil nut-jobs, can you point to any credible sources who claim that "oil production will increase forever"?
Lynch doesn't. CERA doesn't. etc.
Omega point sounds like a fancy idea, but is no more a savior to peak oil than is a dog-witch detector. What use does super enhanced AI have to do with real problems happening today? What could it possibly do to combat the geological limitation of a finite compound, a multi-trillion dollar a year infrastructure and centuries of cultural inertia? This idea/concept is no more likely to help in Peak Oil than is hydrocarbons from space, or He-3 from the moon or whatever fanciful idea is the flavor of the month
There's no such thing as science.
Your ability to watch things fall down, and thereby formulate the Simplified Theory of Gravitation ("things fall down"), is no different, in any way, from the thoughts that let a scientist understand why a star burns. Your ability to drop a rock from your hand, and thereby squash something using the Simplified Theory of Gravitation, is no different from the thoughts that let an engineer create a nuclear submarine.
rsch20 wrote:Theres a definite conflict between Chrisitanity and Evolution, but that is a problem between Christianity and Evolution, or Christianity and Reality, not Evolution and God.
rsch20 wrote:if thats the case then why the debate and lawsuits. i wasn't aware that it's a fringe group trying to change our education system. if 'mainstream christianity' accepts Evolution, then why are they not stepping forward and saying so? why is homeschooling becoming so popular in the bible belt, for the specific reason of teaching Intelligent Design?
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