Peak Oil and Omega Point

[UIUCstudent01]

We'll reach a point of diminishing returns.

Just because you see each successive point slope getting higher and higher doesn't mean that it will eventually turn into an exponental - almost horizantal line part of the graph. (I think thats what you call the omega point..)

It could easily slow down. This is very much like peak oil... some people say/think that because oil has always increased, that it will increase forever...

There's probably a limiting factor... it may be energy or it may be just the natural design of things...

[FatherOfTwo]

It could easily slow down. This is very much like peak oil... some people say/think that because oil has always increased, that it will increase forever...

Just playing devils advocate here, (and I don't want to hijack this thread) but aside from the abiotic oil nut-jobs, can you point to any credible sources who claim that "oil production will increase forever"?
Lynch doesn't. CERA doesn't. etc.

[NeoPeasant]

I was hoping this thread would have something to do with Charlton Heston gunning down mutants in the future.

"You'll get my Soylent Green when you pry it from my cold, dead hands, you damn dirty apes!"

[Ludi]

If oil production peaks next year, or has peaked already, there may not be enough energy to reach an 'omega point'.

and if Omega Point happens this year, Peak Oil may not be relevant due to the super-intelligence making the changes that we seem incapable of doing for ourselves. that could include an energy producing technology we are unaware of, or a 'curtailing' (read: extermination) of human activity to effectively stop our current consumption trends. or any number of possibilties that we are not smart enough to have even thought of.

So you really think a "super-intelligence" is capable of breaking the laws of physics as we know them?

Now that seems indeed a leap of faith.

[o2ny]

For anyone interested in an enjoyable introduction to the topic, I highly recommend Peter Russell's "Waking Up In Time."

Waking Up In Time

My personal opinions about how things will play out are really undefined, but I definitely agree with the general principles and found the book enlightening as well as enjoyable.

I have read this too- it's a good introduction to some of these ideas and theories, including Terence McKenna's 'Timewave Zero', of which the endpoint is called the Omega Point.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novelty_Theory

McKenna's theory is not so much espousing the idea of super-intelligent machines, but more generally that human spirituality/evolution is advancing at an accelerating pace. I suppose the AI theory in this thread is just a different theory that uses the same name and comes to a very similar conclusion.

I’ve read the other threads on this site about Mayan Calendar, John Titor, 9/11 etc. and I want to say that Omega Point is not a concept that should discredit Peak Oil with the ‘crazy by association’ gene.

And before tossing the predictions of the Mayan Calendar out the window just because on the immediate surface it's 'whacked-out', McKenna's timewave theory puts the date of the 'singularity' on the same day as the end of the Mayan calendar, Dec. 21, 2012. McKenna purported to not have known about the Mayan date until *after* he completed his study.
Clearly McKenna's work can be picked apart from a scientific standpoint and holes can and have been found- I just find it incredibly interesting that he managed to get the exact same date as the Mayans.

So to tie this in to peak oil- (and give me a chance to indulge in one of my own personal nut-job theories)- PO could very well prove to be the event that triggers the next massive uptick in novelty- in the form of technological innovation, energy efficiency, and most importantly the replacement of entrenched social and political ideologies that simply can no longer exist. As we watch the crisis unfold before our eyes (right now), it starts to make that 2012 date very compelling... at the very least it's not too long to wait before all of this proven miraculously or discredited as just more mystical nonsense from people who did too many drugs in the 60's.

[rsch20]

UIUCstudent01 wrote

We'll reach a point of diminishing returns.

Just because you see each successive point slope getting higher and higher doesn't mean that it will eventually turn into an exponental - almost horizantal line part of the graph. (I think thats what you call the omega point..)

It could easily slow down. This is very much like peak oil... some people say/think that because oil has always increased, that it will increase forever...

There's probably a limiting factor... it may be energy or it may be just the natural design of things...

the slope won't 'turn' exponential, it is already exponential. each advancement comes exponentially faster than the one previous to it, it's been following that curve since computers were invented (indeed, as observed in 'waking up in time' it's been happening since the beginning of the universe).

diminishing returns, absolutely. but what would those diminishing returns be? where are you going to draw the line, just before AI? current research in AI is very promising so I'd be willing to bet you are wrong on that one.

there is no example that I can think of where advancements lead to less advancements. it is the other way around, instead of diminishing returns you have positive feedback. better tools lead to new breakthroughs, which allow us to construct still better tools. and so on.

I would submit that the only true point of diminishing returns, would be when a being exists that completely understands the universe and all of it's workings. at that point there would truly be 'nothing left to learn'. but that point is at or beyond Omega Point. so Omega Point is still more than possible.

even actively trying to prevent techonological breakthroughs doesn't prevent them, it just assures someone else will make the discovery first.


ludi wrote

So you really think a "super-intelligence" is capable of breaking the laws of physics as we know them?

Now that seems indeed a leap of faith

to answer your question at face value, well yes. a super intelligence would be quite capable of breaking the laws of physics as we know them, we regularly break the laws of physics as the romans (or even newton) understood them. our knowledge of physics is incomplete, future discovery's will almost certainly 'break' our current knowledge of them.

which laws were you referring to anyway? exterminating humans certainly wouldn't require breaking any laws of physics, just some advanced weaponry and the 'will' to use them. a new energy producing technology wouldn't 'break' the laws of physics, by definition if it worked then it would be within those laws.

ElijahJones wrote

Let me first say that if we cannot learn to accept a steady state economy we won't get the chance to build on existing technology. The world will break down into chaos. I am trying to understand why you don't think that Omega Point could come along just in time to save us from peak oil?

That's my little partial criticism, but a few additions might be the speed at which technology is developed does not imply implementation. In fact unless human evolution is keeping pace with the very brightest minds there will be a growing number of people in each generation from here on out who tune out most of the change.

And if we are to get honest with our selves the vast majority of humans are still completely defficient in the technology that we consider 'basic' in the west. I have to say that I enjoy the idea of this sort of Star Tekky super tech next step to humanity stuff but like Tainter I believe that our society has reached its peak of complexity. Until there is a die-off and a reevaluation of social goals related to energy and science Omega point will never come.

If we survive peak oil we will have learned some very important lessons that I think could lead to world peace (honestly). From there colonizing Mars and human computer integration, all this stuff could happen. In fact I just read somewhere that this new chip called "The Cell" is about to revolution computing. Its a multiprocessor. We have barely made good use of the internet or the potential of computing as it is today and we are getting faster stuff everyday. My suspicion is that sociologically this will be detrimental.

A horrible crash is almost fated at this point. Its not that the system cannot change but the global economy is like a giant ocean liner you can't just turn these damn things on a dime. The more demand growth we allow the faster we will have to find alternatives at global scales when peak happens. I honestly believe most technology will become useless in a world facing over 5% demand destruction per year across the board. Prices are going to go through the roof, inflation, famine and war. Its the four horsemen buddy. I like the idea of Omega point its just that behind it you need a society and an economy that is rock solid ripped and ready to run and peak oil will probably make that impossible.

I think that omega point can come along just in time to save us, because well it can =p it's due by 2040 and we may well last that long. Peak Oil is not a model that says 'the world will fall apart in 2006', it just states that production will peak either sometime in the near future or possibly already. a recession is just as possible as a complete crash, isn't one of the Peak Oil books titled 'The Long Emergency'?

The list of potential troubles facing us is long and mind-numbing.

1. Peak Oil
2. Global Warming
3. Overpopulation
4. Nuclear War
5. Nanotech
6. Super-Volcano
7. Ice Age
8. Meteor
9. Overshoot
10. Terrorism (as a society progresses technologically, assuming a certain portion of that society is intent on destroying everything the farther along you get the more destruction can be wreaked by that portion)

that's an incomplete list i'm sure, and many of those threats are so rare and random that we have a hard time being scared by them. a horrible crash certainly does seem 'fated' if not sooner then later. but that does not disqualify Omega Point until one of them actually happens, since we are still here, there is still a non-zero chance for Omega Point (or one of the other outcomes) to happen.

as for the infrastructure issue, 30 years ago nobody had any concept of how integrated computers would become in our lives. do you have a cell phone? that technology disseminated itself rather quickly wouldn't you agree?


o2ny: I've read about Novelty Theory and the Mayan Calendar, I find it intriguing, but left it out of my original post due to the 'crackpot' aspect of both of them. a super-intelligence would be pretty novel don't you agree?

there are too many synchronicities to ignore that is for certain, Peak Oil, Omega Point, Mayan Calander, Novelty Theory, Global Warming, all of them point to either problems or changes within a very short number of years. more evidence of things accelerating. If I had to lay a bet on when things are going to go loopy, i'd put my money on 2012, just cause I like the irony of it.


http://www.sysopmind.com/tmol-faq/orientation.html

this website is very informative on the topic of super-ai. ironically enough the site puports to answer the 'meaning of life', the answer is very simple: we are here to create super-ai =p before scoffing read it, the argument is actually very solid.


fossil fuel wrote:

the potential implications of omega point scare me far more than peak oil.

perhaps it's a good thing that it will likely never happen due to PO and a variety of other factors.

note the word 'likely', it's a non-zero possibility. as likely as nuclear war.

the first sentence, really comes down to the crux of why this idea gets pooh-pooh'd so much I believe. it's a very similar reason why most people ignore Peak Oil, fear.

I think it's ironic, that I've proposed a situation that people find MORE FRIGHTENING than a collapse of civilization. after you hear about peak-oil, you get scared, but we can envision things to do to help us if it does happen, we stock water, buy guns and food. learn to garden, get off the grid etc. these actions give a feeling of control over the situation, you think 'hey thats pretty dire, but i'll do my best to survive'.

accepting Omega Point, on the other hand is to openly admit that you have no clue what is coming next, that you have no real way to prepare for it, and that you may not even be in the picture anymore soon.

yep that's pretty scary, from a human's point of view. but what about an objective point of view? if a new 'race' comes along that is far more advanced than we are, then do we not deserve to replaced? homo-erectus probably wasn't happy about getting replaced by homo-sapien, but from the viewpoint of nature it was a good thing, more complexity yay.

even if we are included in what comes next, it would surely entail changes in our race that amount to fundamentally the same thing, homo-sapiens as it is known now would no longer be around, (except maybe as museum pieces =p ).

[ohanian]

If we survive peak oil we will have learned some very important lessons that I think could lead to world peace (honestly). From there colonizing Mars and human computer integration, all this stuff could happen. In fact I just read somewhere that this new chip called "The Cell" is about to revolution computing. Its a multiprocessor. We have barely made good use of the internet or the potential of computing as it is today and we are getting faster stuff everyday. My suspicion is that sociologically this will be detrimental.

ENTER SARCASM MODE

Forget the stupid "CELL" processor, there is a more powerful computer CPU released back in 1999 which will solve all the world's computation problems in less time than an eye blink. Twice as powerful as the world's existing supercomputer and affordable as well.

I'm talking about the EMOTION ENGINE chip.

This chip is so powerful that it will revolutionise computing as you know it. I know that this is true because SONY told me so and SONY will NEVER lie to me. I know that in just 6 years time , in 2005, the entire world will be forever changed because of this chip.

LEAVE SARCASM MODE

[0mar]

It could easily slow down. This is very much like peak oil... some people say/think that because oil has always increased, that it will increase forever...

Just playing devils advocate here, (and I don't want to hijack this thread) but aside from the abiotic oil nut-jobs, can you point to any credible sources who claim that "oil production will increase forever"?
Lynch doesn't. CERA doesn't. etc.

They say that'll oil production will increase until alternatives and renewables can replace them. It's fairy tale wishing.

Omega point sounds like a fancy idea, but is no more a savior to peak oil than is a dog-witch detector. What use does super enhanced AI have to do with real problems happening today? What could it possibly do to combat the geological limitation of a finite compound, a multi-trillion dollar a year infrastructure and centuries of cultural inertia? This idea/concept is no more likely to help in Peak Oil than is hydrocarbons from space, or He-3 from the moon or whatever fanciful idea is the flavor of the month.

[rsch20]

Staring into the Singularity

http://www.sysopmind.com/singularity.html

this is another great intro to this concept.

Omega point sounds like a fancy idea, but is no more a savior to peak oil than is a dog-witch detector. What use does super enhanced AI have to do with real problems happening today? What could it possibly do to combat the geological limitation of a finite compound, a multi-trillion dollar a year infrastructure and centuries of cultural inertia? This idea/concept is no more likely to help in Peak Oil than is hydrocarbons from space, or He-3 from the moon or whatever fanciful idea is the flavor of the month

the entire point of the singularity is that we are not smart enough to predict the changes that are possible. I've already listed one thing it could to to combat the geological limitation of a finite compound, eliminate all superflous humans. a rather simple solution. a possible technological solution would be nanotech, nano assemblers programmed to seek out hydrogen and carbon in the atmosphere and convert them into a hyrdrocarbon (this is a process that nature does, takes millions of years sure, but if nature can do it then it's at least possible that nano-machines could do the same thing).

cultural inertia will be overswept by revolutionary change, going back to nano-tech again, what if nano-machines were programmed to install WI-FI in our heads? connecting everyone in a 'borg' fashion. horrifying? sure, star-trekky? yep, possible? absolutely.

Omega Point can be dismissed because it is so 'fantastic' sure. in fact the most fantastic or improbable things we can think of are unlikely to even come close to the reality.

but the concept is solid, the ramifications quickly lead to incredulity, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation any more than wishing Peak Oil away changes the reality of depleting fossil fuels.

I'm also not saying that Omega Point will be the 'savior' of Peak Oil, I'm just informing you of a model, that is just as valid as Hubberts Peak. the idea isn't 'fancy', its quite simple.

here is a quote from the meaning of life faq that I believe is relevant.

There's no such thing as science.

Your ability to watch things fall down, and thereby formulate the Simplified Theory of Gravitation ("things fall down"), is no different, in any way, from the thoughts that let a scientist understand why a star burns. Your ability to drop a rock from your hand, and thereby squash something using the Simplified Theory of Gravitation, is no different from the thoughts that let an engineer create a nuclear submarine.

[Ludi]

The law of physics I'm thinking of is "You can't get something from nothing." (First Law of Thermodynamics) A new unknown cheap energy source is very unlikely. I have a moderately high opinion of our knowledge of physics at this point in history, I don't think our science is overlooking a cheap energy source presently. Super AI is not likely to find something that doesn't exist.

[EdF]

I have to be a bit sceptical about the Omega Point hypothesis. I've been in the software industry for > 25 years and have an advanced degree from Stanford in the field. The predictions from back when I was in school for AI have largely not materialized, though modest progress has been made in a number of areas.

Further, while hardware breakthroughs have been rather amazing in that period, software breakthroughs have not. Mainstream programming languages have ignored pioneering work done in the 70's (eg Java, C, C++ wrt concurrent programming). Object technology is certainly an advance since that time (well, actually it first showed up in the 60's), but in general, there has been no exponential increase in breakthroughs that improve the quality and capabilities of software development and its results.

And sure, real luminaries in the field might disagree with my opinion - I'm just in the trenches.

Curmudgeonly,

- Ed

[rsch20]

http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~russell/ai.html

[gg3]

I've read a couple of papers about singularity events (can't find the citations at the moment).

The problem here is that the prediction of a singularity is usually made on the basis that an exponential curve will, if unchecked, go approximately vertical at some point.

What this misses is the possibility that the exponential phase will eventually level off and go linear or flat, so the expected singularity may never occur.

I tend to believe this will be the case with discoveries in computer science. Many fields of engineering undergo a roughly similar process. Steam engineering for example is now considered a "closed field" where new discoveries are considered highly unlikely. I don't think computer science is about to go flat any time soon, but I do think it is likely to level off somewhat over the next 20 years.

As for transhumanism, the strong form of that hypothesis strikes me as quasi-religious. A more moderate form seems plausible, for example that rational humans will be more likely that irrational humans to survive a culling period: rational humans would anticipate the circumstances that lead to the culling (e.g. PO, climate change, global pandemic), and therefore take steps to prepare for it and avoid getting culled. If this occurred on a wide enough scale, it would have potential to evolve our species, memetically and socially at least, if not genetically.

I also tend to believe there are presently a number of subspecies of humans, some more rational and some less rational, some that tend toward constructive behavioral interactions (cooperation, competition, symbiosis, commensalism), and some that tend toward destructive behavioral interactions (predation, parasitism). This has nothing to do with race or ethnicity or religion, etc. etc. It has much to do with the neurochemistry of cognitive and emotional traits. The more highly-evolved humans tend to think in terms of the general good of the species and overall physical & social ecosystems, the big picture, and long time frames. The less-evolved humans tend to think only in terms of their own self-interests (including genetic), act on impulse, and operate with a narrow view and short time-horizons. I could go on about this topic, but the foregoing should be sufficient for now .

[rsch20]

very good points,

indeed, the possibility of the curve levelling off is the strongest argument against omega point. however computer science is not steam engineering, a steam engine has zero potential to become intelligent. ultimately just waiting a few more years will tell the tale one way or the other. Like Peak Oil I prefer to think about and at least mentally prepare for what the consequences could be.

strong transhumanism or strong ai definetly is quasi-religious. I consider myself to be agnostic, or 'spiritual'. If Omega Point creates a strong intelligence, it would be functionally equivalent to the concept we hold for 'God'.

That doesn't disqualify it in my book though, the universe being created to give birth to (a) god makes a lot of sense to me. more than religions that think the purpose of being here is to obey what we are told in order to be rewarded with a permanent 'happy state' (or to avoid a permanent 'unhappy state').

'but god created the universe not the other way around' you say, well, to quote Forrest Gump, 'maybe it's both?'.

It's like this ridiculous Evolution vs Intelligent Design debate, makes me want to puke when drivel like that is on CNN, does nobody consider the possibility that the universe was created 5 billion years ago, by god?

Evolution does not comment on the existence of god, it's just an observation of how things develop in the natural world. Theres a definite conflict between Chrisitanity and Evolution, but that is a problem between Christianity and Evolution, or Christianity and Reality, not Evolution and God.


as for a weak transhuman, unaccompanied by an Omega Point, I find that to be the less plausible branch personally, our brains haven't changed in 50,000 years, without 'hardware' changes to how we work we aren't going to solve any of our current problems. even the 'smart' humans are still driven by primitive impulses and ego.

the 'predation and parasitism' you mention will not be purged from our species without completely re-wiring how we work, we still operate on a 'lizard brain', if such a re-wiring takes place that seems a lot closer to the 'strong' side of the equation to me.

[Ludi]

Theres a definite conflict between Chrisitanity and Evolution, but that is a problem between Christianity and Evolution, or Christianity and Reality, not Evolution and God.

Not really. Most mainstream Christian churches accept evolution.

[rsch20]

if thats the case then why the debate and lawsuits. i wasn't aware that it's a fringe group trying to change our education system. if 'mainstream christianity' accepts Evolution, then why are they not stepping forward and saying so? why is homeschooling becoming so popular in the bible belt, for the specific reason of teaching Intelligent Design?

[Ludi]

if thats the case then why the debate and lawsuits. i wasn't aware that it's a fringe group trying to change our education system. if 'mainstream christianity' accepts Evolution, then why are they not stepping forward and saying so? why is homeschooling becoming so popular in the bible belt, for the specific reason of teaching Intelligent Design?

These people represent an extremely vocal minority.

[jackal42]

Can anyone say the matrix?

ie. super AI runs out of easily accessible cheap energy(peak oil), decides to use humans as form of power.
Energy and population problems solved!!

[lowem]

Wonderful - was wondering when the peakoilers and the technocracy/singularity folks were gonna have a get-together.

So, are we ever gonna be a Type 1 Civilization, or a failed Type 0?