Peak oil- books that prove or disprove

[ualdriver]

Hi-

I'm new to this interesting "peak oil" topic but I want to learn more about it. If you had to pick two books, one making the argument that a "peak oil" crisis is coming and one making the case AGAINST a looming "peak oil" crisis, what two books would you suggest one read? Can you suggest books that are written by authors with great credibility when considering the above?

It's a great topic, but it seems to be divided between people who believe the sky is falling and those who sugar-coat an impending potential crisis. I'd like to read about both sides of the "peak oil" argment from credible authors.

Thanks

[Ancien_Opus]

There is "no" question of if the oil will peak, only when it will. When and what comes after are at the heart of peak oil.

Three books that I will reference cover the subject from an easy to read view without getting into the nitty gritty of the arguments. If you want technical specifications then you'll need to do more research. I would start
with googling books and reports by Colin Cambell, Michael Lynch, Matt Simons and Ken Deffeye.

Optomistic - "Wining the Oil Endgame" Amory Lovins
Pessimist - "The Long Emergency" James Howard Kunstler
Interview Style both sides of the road - "The Oil Age is Over" Matthew David Savinar

All easy to read & understand.

Regards,

[ualdriver]

Thanks Ancien. What are the backgrounds of the authors of the books that you reccommend? What do you mean by "interview style" in the third reccomendation?

Thanks

[FatherOfTwo]

Interview Style both sides of the road - "The Oil Age is Over" Matthew David Savinar

All easy to read & understand.

Regards,

Matt's book was my first indepth read, and it was a big wake up call for me.
But it's hardly "both sides of the road". Matt's a doomer and he has some erroneous information in it to boot.

[Ancien_Opus]

Father of two is correct in that Matt Savinar is definitely doomer.

Savinar is a board certified lawyer. I tend to give such credentials a nod because most lawyers are trained to look into both sides of an argument and then form an opiinon. His matter of fact ask a question get an answer style is easy to read. You may or may not agree with his final opinion
but the data is there for you to read.

Kunstler is an author of several books but has an axe to grind with suburbia and peak oil is his latest horse pulling the wagon. I enjoy his writing style and find a lot good solid logic in his conclusions.

Amory Lovins is Phd in Physics and writes eloquently about potential emerging technologies. I find logistical problems with the solutions offered.

Regards,

[ualdriver]

Actually, now that I've read what those above books are about, I guess I should clarify what I'm looking for. I was more looking for books on both side of the "peak oil" issue I guess from a more scientific standpoint. Not books predicting what the future will be like with or without oil.

For example, I was looking at "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage" by Deffeyes as an example of a book that illustrates the argument for an impending "peak oil" crisis or something similar (is this book any good?). Then maybe a book that covered this topic from a scientific standpoint that puts this "peak oil" assumption farther off into the future and states why they believe this to be true.

[MattSavinar]

When assessing the source, make sure to follow the money.

Who funds the author/publisher?

In the case of Lovins, the Pentagon was one of the funders. His book/report is geared (it says so) to ensure profits for big corporations.

What company does the author keep?

Do some googling on Lovins and you will find he regularly speaks at events sponsored or attended by representatives of Conoco Phillips, KBR, etc. . .

The foreward to his book was written by a Bechtel executive.

So yeah, he's all about making sure you this works out for you and me.

In terms of figuring out who is "more right", I'd suggest reading the various writings and comparing them to what is going on out in the real world.

We're in a worldwide war for oil that, according to our government, "will not end in our lifetimes" while the government is passing a highway construction bill just as gas prices are about to curtail driving at a time when the economy is being supported almost entirely by the housing bubble, which can only work so long as people can afford the long commutes.

And then there is the energy bill . . . And the war in Iraq . . . And our incredibly stable and intelligent leadership corps . . . And the wonderfully upfront and transparent nature of Mid-East oil reserve data . . . And the fact that oil has tripled in price in 3 years yet shows no sign of coming down significantly. And so on and so on . . .

I'd love for the Lovins crowd to turn out to be "more right" than the Kunstler crowd, but which crowd is observing verifiable reality and which one is spouting about what could be done (in theory or on paper) but is in no way, shape, or form happening out in the real world?

Best,

Matt

[MattSavinar]

Actually, now that I've read what those above books are about, I guess I should clarify what I'm looking for. I was more looking for books on both side of the "peak oil" issue I guess from a more scientific standpoint. Not books predicting what the future will be like with or without oil.

For example, I was looking at "Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage" by Deffeyes as an example of a book that illustrates the argument for an impending "peak oil" crisis or something similar (is this book any good?). Then maybe a book that covered this topic from a scientific standpoint that puts this "peak oil" assumption farther off into the future and states why they believe this to be true.

There is the CERA report, but that's not a book. You could also read every USGS or EIA report for the last 40 years.

Make sure to read the one from the 1960s where they put the upper limit of ultimate US oil production at 2 trillion barrels.

(see the "fishing facts" article entitled "our petroleum predicament" for the reference).

Actually, if you're looking for dueling reports, look to the "Hirsch Report" and the "CERA report."

[ualdriver]

OK, I Googled "cera report" and came up with lots of links that reference the report, but I can' seem to find the actual report. Would you mind posting a link where I can read the actual report?

What's the Hirsch report?

[Ancien_Opus]

Peaking of World Oil Production, Impact, Mitigation & Risk Management by Robert Hirsh et al of SAIC prepared for U.S. Department of Energy
February 2005

Page 8 contains the resources you are looking for and Table 11-1 as well.
Good Luck.

Regards,

[bobcousins]

I'm not that new, but since I started looking into PO I have been waiting for the book that explains why PO will not be a crisis (in a scientific manner). What worries me is that there doesn't appear to be one (not that I know of anyway).

I may be biased, but one of the compelling reasons for why there will be a crisis is that there really are few credible counter-arguments being put forward. As has been mentioned, the almost certainty there will be a peak within 40 years or so is not disputed, it is the impact on our life that is under dispute (the crisis part), so you may have trouble finding any books that attempt to disprove peak oil itself, without referring to the impact.

As far as I am aware, there is no scientific way of determining whether Peak Oil will lead to a crisis. The future depends on whether humans recognise the problem and do something about it. The only book I have seen that comes close to analysing this in a scientific manner is Joe Tainters "Collapse of Complex Civilisations", a book I recommend anyway. Tainter is a career anthropologist, though he does have a bit of an environmentalist tendency. Necessarily it is largely an analysis of past civilisations, that are no prescriptions for the future, only tantalising clues.

I think it is a good idea to draw up a list of books that have a scientific approach though, there is far too much rubbish that appears for general consumption, on both sides of the debate.

[bobcousins]

I tend to give such credentials a nod because most lawyers are trained to look into both sides of an argument and then form an opiinon.

Are you sure? In my experience lawyers start with the opinion you are paying them to prove, then they gather evidence to support this opinion, and discredit any that doesn't. In that sense, they are no different to anyone else. If you substitute scientist for lawyer I might be more inclined to agree.

When the British told Bush that their legal opinion was that the war in Iraq may well be illegal, the British were famously told "then get a different lawyer". What they actually did was use the same one but tell him to change his advice. Saves money I guess.

[MattSavinar]

I tend to give such credentials a nod because most lawyers are trained to look into both sides of an argument and then form an opiinon.

Are you sure? In my experience lawyers start with the opinion you are paying them to prove, then they gather evidence to support this opinion, and discredit any that doesn't. In that sense, they are no different to anyone else. If you substitute scientist for lawyer I might be more inclined to agree.
.

Like the ones at Exxon who say there is no global warming.

Matt

[jsurly]

OK, I Googled "cera report" and came up with lots of links that reference the report, but I can' seem to find the actual report. Would you mind posting a link where I can read the actual report?

What's the Hirsch report?

Project Censored (among others) has a pdf of the Hirsch Report. Not sure whether the CERA report Matt refers to is available to the public yet though - their website is CERA.

on edit: Okay, I forgot to mention that I feel that Yergin (CERA) is a total shill for the industry and probably knows he is full of it.

[VinceG]

I'd like to recommend "High Noon; 20 global problems, 20 years to solve them by J.F. Rischard.

This book is not specifically about peakoil, it does however extensively discuss the global energy problems, global environment issues and New World Economy. What I like about this book is that it gives a realistic description of the current global issues with the focus on problem solving rather than predicting unrealistic scenarios.

Why take a swipe at globalization? Because like all mushy concepts, it confuses rather than enlightens. Many people tend to relate it only to economic items, like world trade and capital flows, when there clearly are some other big things going on - such as the planet's population going from 5 billion a decade ago to about 8 billion less than a generation from now. Worse, some people imagine that globalization is dark-suited men getting together every Monday morning in Washington or New York to decide howo best to make money by degrading the environment and promotiong poverty and distress throughout the world. More innocently, most people mix up two things: global changes and the failure to respond correctly to them