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The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby phaster » Sun 27 May 2018, 13:11:38

roccman wrote:
onlooker wrote:Actually, my bad. The thesis should have been the financial system and the attendant needs and wants of all the humans is destroying the Environment of the world in terms of favorable habitation conditions. I notice that some of you do not spend to much time on the Environment forum. Well, I am making a post there that will be titled "BAU is the final nail in the coffin" . Because while some of you do make some keen points about how the Economies of the world are still functioning and staying afloat. Every day modern civilization and our huge numbers are debilitating the resiliency of the Biosphere and its ability to sustain life. So, I know this is a PO site but we all know this is the case but some of us are more forthright about it.


There was a time when humans lived in equilibrium with the earth...one tribe...one law. That was a very long time ago. The mob being given breeding rights changed things. As such, equilibrium was lost and the default button pushed...that is - the mob will assist with building an ark, but will not be invited on the ark. The sooner folk realize that the mob has killed earth and that those in power have been forced into the defacto alternative - more time can be spent by the individual designing a way to attach a dingy to the ark.


I seriously doubt living in perfect equilibrium, simply because math tells me that not very likely,... more like the rate of growth or decay was much, much, much smaller in the past

what supercharged growth in the past 100 years, is fossil fuels and the financial sector, which enabled trade,... consider 100+ years ago here in the USA 1/2 the population was involved in the ag sector,... even in china 40 years ago a majority of the population there had to grow their own food

what I'm trying to say is fossil fuels and the financial sector, which enabled trade, etc., also made life less difficult so human populations grew exponentially!

IMHO the seeds have been sown (long ago), in a PSYOP chain reaction that started long ago @ UCSD

Image

***allegedly*** Revelle in 1992 wrote:"Look before you leap - Drastic, precipitous—and, especially, unilateral—steps to delay the putative greenhouse impacts can cost jobs and prosperity and increase the human costs of global poverty, without being effective. Stringent economic controls now would be economically devastating particularly for developing countries..."

Image


which will swing the pendulum in the other direction,...


Climate "realists" want U.S. to stop spending money on climate change - CBS News

A group of climate change skeptics who call themselves "climate realists" think the U.S. has spent too much money on climate change already, and they want the government to stop. Climate scientists, the U.N. and NASA dismiss these arguments as propaganda for fossil fuel interests. Dean Reynolds reports.

http://download.cbsnews.com/media/mpx/2 ... 30_740.mp4

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/climate-r ... te-change/



looked at another way the economic/finance domino sector (has yet to fall)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y97rBdSYbkg

which in turn most likely cause human populations to fall precipitously
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Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 11:21:48

Debt-onomics': Even people with good jobs in fear of going bankrupt
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/debt- ... pt~1384896
These 11 Countries are Going BANKRUPT! Here's Why.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05AspCST3u0
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Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 13:20:33

onlooker wrote:Debt-onomics': Even people with good jobs in fear of going bankrupt
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/debt- ... pt~1384896
These 11 Countries are Going BANKRUPT! Here's Why.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05AspCST3u0

Anyone with a good job/income and chronic debt or bankruptcy problems obviously isn't lazy. However, any such chronic condition is a sign of bad decision making and/or bad habits re spending.

People have the option to make wise decisions or adapt as conditions change.

Clearly housing prices in some big cities (Toronto was mentioned in the first link) has gotten insane. There are choices besides buying an insanely expensive house and paying the taxes on that. One could live farther out and commute, see about telecommuting, etc.

Smart people I've known (or family members) have exploited a situation like that by SELLING the insanely expensive house, retiring, and moving to a nicer and far cheaper and lower crime city -- and using the huge windfall on the house to nicely supplement their retirement.

Let's not pretend that such issues mean the economy is being destroyed. There are quite a few things that are far less convenient as things get more crowded. (The NYC subway, for example, partly because riders want a great subway but super cheap fares and to be subsidized by everybody else -- surprise, surprise, that's not working out well).

Pretending some inconvenience is akin to "destroying the world economy" isn't credible.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Jun 2018, 14:50:46

Also, wondeing why you ignored 11 countries going bankrupt
Notice this is from MSM article: https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gl ... 12351.html
Global debt is spiralling out of control
Reducing debt through debt forgiveness, defaults or inflation is not without consequences. Savings designed to finance future needs, such as retirement, are lost. This in turn results in additional claims on the state to cover the shortfall or reduce future expenditure, which crimps economic activity

Borrowing is also assumed to finance assets or investments that generate income or value to repay principal and interest. A significant proportion of current debt does not meet this test.

Only around 15-20 per cent of total financial flows went into investment projects with the remaining 80-85 per cent being used to finance existing corporate assets, real estate or unsecured personal finance to “facilitate lifecycle consumption smoothing”. Borrowings were frequently used to finance pre-existing assets where anticipated price rises were to be the source of repayment.

Debt irrelevance assumes a Ponzi scheme where nations need to borrow ever-increasing amounts to both repay existing borrowing but also to maintain economic growth. By 2007-2008, the US needed $4 to $5 of debt to create $1 of economic growth, compared with an additional $1 to $2 of debt per additional $1 of GDP in the 1950s. Currently, China needs $6 to $8 of debt to create $1 growth, compared with $1 to $2 as recently as 10 to 20 years ago. Such a rapid increase in debt levels is unsustainable given constraints of an ageing population and slower growth overall.
But in the absence of strong growth and high inflation, unsustainable debt levels cannot be artificially maintained. If and when the problems re-emerge, the ability of the sovereigns to intervene will be constrained. The financial strength of many sovereigns are now impaired by increasing levels of borrowing incurred in the lead-up to and following the GFC, reducing their ability to act in case of financial crisis.

The argument that every debtor has a corresponding creditor ignores the fact that the lenders may be foreign. Where the borrowings are sourced offshore there is net outflow of cash to the lender, which can affect domestic wealth and activity as well as increase financial

Just one comment about the remedies. The strong growth is difficult in perpetually Debt ridden Economies and high inflation obviously can be counterproductive to having strong Economies
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Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby marmico » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 06:11:12

By 2007-2008, the US needed $4 to $5 of debt to create $1 of economic growth, compared with an additional $1 to $2 of debt per additional $1 of GDP in the 1950s.


Ya, it was called the Great Recession, the greatest economic contraction since the Great Depression. The US nonfinancial (households, government and nonfinancial business) debt to GDP ratio @250% ( $2.50 of debt to create $1 of economic growth) has been as flat as a pancake since 2009.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/fofdebtmeas.pdf
Yardeni (Figure 2)

What don't you post something about the optimal US leverage (debt to GDP) ratio?
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Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 11:15:47

onlooker wrote:Also, wondeing why you ignored 11 countries going bankrupt
Notice this is from MSM article: https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gl ... 12351.html

Why do I ignore most of the Cassandra false fast crash economic narrative? Shouting the same thing week after week, year after year doesn't change the big picture.

Is the situation for countries like Greece, Venezuela, etc. somehow new news? I don't think so.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 12:03:24

pstarr wrote:The average driving American's gasoline bill increased by $2,000 per year. For six years. We each of us, lost $12,000 during those horrible times. Lost to oil greedy, polluting and corrupt oil companies. Many enemies and/or socialist/Muslim entities.


Such a metric might apply to average Americans like you. But you can't even be bothered to replace your liquid fuel burning monstrosity with a modern, non liquid fuel burning EV.

Do they teach hypocrisy in California as something to be admired, or did you come by it naturally?
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Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 12:04:08

Pstarr, Outcast does"t understand that collapse works from the periphery inward. The weak first succumb then the central strong ones
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 14:58:04

Picking off the weak on the periphery is not collapse, that is how predators always hunt the herd. In nature such activity ensures the strongest and most protected inner circle survive and pass on their strength to the next generation.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 15:11:45

Unfortunately, Tanada, our Economic world has been built on mutual trade and cooperation and treaties etc which allow everyone to partake to a greater or lesser degree in modernity. The picking off at the periphery is not a sign to me of some sort of natural selection per say. Rather, it is a sign that the growth debt oriented globalized world industrial system is NOT functioning well enough to prevent some countries from falling off. To me all this is akin to an apple slowly but steadily rotting from the outside inward. Those counties falling to the wayside could be contributing as workers, consumers, taxpayers etc. Instead, we have malfunction spreading and the threat of systemic breakdown of our interconnected economic/financial system. And all this does not even mention the brewing environmental catastrophes looming.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 15:54:45

It is what it is. The people behind the financial system have always taken a generous cut of the money for themselves at the expense of everyone else.

The future is rather simple, it will be the "haves" and the "have nots" - which camp would you rather be in?
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Re: The financial system is destrohing the world economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 15:59:57

pstarr wrote:The average driving American's gasoline bill increased by $2,000 per year. For six years.

Care to post a credible citation to support that?

Care to show credible math to support that?

Hint, given the reality of miles driven by the average American, the cost of fuel, and the history of oil/gasoline prices in the US, I don't think you can.

Hint 2: What six year period did oil prices stay very high? In my world/history, oil prices dropped dramatically in late 2008, and weren't near $100 a barrel again until mid 2010. Are you going to just pretend that didn't happen?

The average American drives about 13,000 miles a year. At a 25 mpg round number fleet average, that takes 520 gallons of gasoline. Want to use an unrealistically low 20 mpg round number fleet average. OK, 650 gallons. Doesn't bail you out.

So in what world would gasoline rising even $3.00 a gallon cost $2000 for the "average American"? (Let's remember -- many Americans, such as children under 16 and people who take public transport don't even drive).

Especially since in the world of objective facts/data, the gas price for any 4 (much less 6) year period rose more like $1 and change at most. Which makes your exaggeration off by a good factor of three, but thanks for playing.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fa ... -1929-2015
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 21:58:10

Indeed, capitalism does not operate in a similar manner as natural selection because the world economy is measured using money. Its value can only be retained through increased sales of goods and services, and that's possible only through expanding markets, which happen to involve the periphery.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby phaster » Mon 25 Jun 2018, 14:38:19

ralfy wrote:Indeed, capitalism does not operate in a similar manner as natural selection because the world economy is measured using money. Its value can only be retained through increased sales of goods and services, and that's possible only through expanding markets, which happen to involve the periphery.


capitalism does not operate in a similar manner as natural selection???

perhaps "capitalism" does in mysterious ways,... ;-)

GOD by way of Genesis 6:17 wrote:And, behold, I, even I, do bring a flood of waters upon the earth, to destroy all flesh, wherein is the breath of life, from under heaven; and every thing that is in the earth shall die.

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https://TinyURL.com/ZillowData
truth is,...

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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 26 Jun 2018, 01:51:43

phaster wrote:perhaps "capitalism" does in mysterious ways,... ;-)

Except that capitalism doesn't cause overpopulation by itself. Neither does it cause hyperconsumption by itself.

IMO, you're waving your arms at the wrong demon.

Oh, and AGW doesn't need supernatural beings to occur, quotes from old books or not.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 26 Jun 2018, 02:27:50

phaster wrote:
ralfy wrote:Indeed, capitalism does not operate in a similar manner as natural selection because the world economy is measured using money. Its value can only be retained through increased sales of goods and services, and that's possible only through expanding markets, which happen to involve the periphery.


capitalism does not operate in a similar manner as natural selection???

perhaps "capitalism" does in mysterious ways,... ;-)

GOD by way of Genesis 6:17 wrote:And, behold, I, even I, do bring a flood of waters upon the earth, to destroy all flesh, wherein is the breath of life, from under heaven; and every thing that is in the earth shall die.

Image

https://TinyURL.com/ZillowData


Natural selection refers to the manner by which changes in the environment cause some traits among plant and animal species to be advantageous or the opposite, thus causing some species to flourish and others to become extinct.

Capitalism, on the other hand, refers to economic systems where credit earned from doing business is reinvested in the same systems.

That's why the two are not the same.
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby phaster » Wed 27 Jun 2018, 16:00:53

ralfy wrote:
phaster wrote:
ralfy wrote:Indeed, capitalism does not operate in a similar manner as natural selection because the world economy is measured using money. Its value can only be retained through increased sales of goods and services, and that's possible only through expanding markets, which happen to involve the periphery.


capitalism does not operate in a similar manner as natural selection???

perhaps "capitalism" does in mysterious ways,... ;-)

GOD by way of Genesis 6:17 wrote:And, behold, I, even I, do bring a flood of waters upon the earth, to destroy all flesh, wherein is the breath of life, from under heaven; and every thing that is in the earth shall die.

Image

https://TinyURL.com/ZillowData


Natural selection refers to the manner by which changes in the environment cause some traits among plant and animal species to be advantageous or the opposite, thus causing some species to flourish and others to become extinct.

Capitalism, on the other hand, refers to economic systems where credit earned from doing business is reinvested in the same systems.

That's why the two are not the same.


Natural selection I'd argue also works w/ in the context of a capitalism (i.e the consumer market)

ponder if you will during something akin to the energy crisis of the 1970's when there were gas shortages,...

This History of the 1970s Energy Crisis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGgx9_ljrA0


I'd argue what happend back then is various consumer products evolved because of the economic environment, in other words sales of energy inefficient and unreliable vehicles like those made by the american big three US auto makers (or british auto makers), went the way of the dodo bird population (i.e. sales went to zero), while vehicles made by the japanese took market share because of business structure and engineering

1970s American Cars Damning Review | Jeremy Clarkson's Motorworld | BBC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjzpx_jUUA0


Understanding Japanese Keiretsu

The structure of major companies in Japan, known as Keiretsu, is steeped in tradition and relationships.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... iretsu.asp


Kaizen with Six Sigma Ensures Continuous Improvement

Kaizen is a Japanese philosophy that focuses on continual improvement throughout all aspects of life. When applied to the workplace, Kaizen activities can improve every function of a business, from manufacturing to marketing,...

https://www.isixsigma.com/methodology/k ... provement/


FWIW the reason I quoted a passage from the bible is because there is some basis in fact that the punchline from Genesis 6:17 (i.e. every thing that is in the earth shall die), is pretty much what various scientific reports state might come about because of climate change,...

Will Humans Survive the Sixth Great Extinction?

In the last half-billion years, life on Earth has been nearly wiped out five times—by such things as climate change, an intense ice age, volcanoes, and that space rock that smashed into the Gulf of Mexico 65 million years ago, obliterating the dinosaurs and a bunch of other species. These events are known as the Big Five mass extinctions, and all signs suggest we are now on the precipice of a sixth.

Except this time, we have no one but ourselves to blame. According to a study published last week in Science Advances, the current extinction rate could be more than 100 times higher than normal—and that’s only taking into account the kinds of animals we know the most about,...


https://news.nationalgeographic.com/201 ... nce-world/


Scripps Study (There’s A Chance Climate Change Can Wipe Out Humans By 2050)

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2017/sep/15/sc ... e-can-wip/

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/new ... story.html


AND perhaps one means to stack the odds against that fate, is to,...

Appeal to what people already believe

Co-author Gró Einarsdóttir, a PhD student from the University of Gothenburg, describes how emphasising the co-benefits of tackling climate change can influence people’s motivation to act.

“Co-benefits are basically when you take things that many people already care about and connect this with taking action on climate or other environmental issues


http://sciencenordic.com/how-we-motivat ... ate-change
truth is,...

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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 27 Jun 2018, 16:41:39

Any evidence that the World's Economy is being destroyed seems to be lacking. Of course, the current trade war scenario could have an impact, but it has not yet. From The Wall Street Journal:

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rose in March
U.S. business trends continued to increase, pointing to robust
economic growth throughout 2018


By Bowdeya Tweh
April 19, 2018 11:00 a.m. ET

An economic index that measures U.S. business trends continued to increase in March.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% to 109, following increases with the index in January and February. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting the index to rise by 0.3%.

Comprising 10 components, including initial claims for jobless benefits, factory orders and the S&P 500’s price change, the index is intended to signal swings in the business cycle and to smooth out some of the volatility of individual indicators.

“The LEI points to robust economic growth throughout 2018,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at the Conference Board. “While the Federal Reserve is on track to continue raising its benchmark rate for the rest of the year, the recent weakness in residential construction and stock prices—important leading indicators—should be monitored closely.”

While the index’s rise in March was slower than in previous months, “its six-month growth rate increased further and points to continued solid growth in the U.S. economy for the rest of the year,” Mr. Ozyildirim said.

“The strengths among the components of the leading index have been very widespread over the last six months. However, labor market components made negative contributions in March and bear watching in the near future,” he said.

The board’s coincident index, designed to reflect current economic conditions, rose 0.2% in March from the prior month. The lagging index increased by 0.1%.

Write to Bowdeya Tweh at [email protected]
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Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: The Financial System is Destroying the World Economy

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 28 Jun 2018, 01:16:08

phaster wrote:Natural selection I'd argue also works w/ in the context of a capitalism (i.e the consumer market)

ponder if you will during something akin to the energy crisis of the 1970's when there were gas shortages,...

This History of the 1970s Energy Crisis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGgx9_ljrA0


I'd argue what happend back then is various consumer products evolved because of the economic environment, in other words sales of energy inefficient and unreliable vehicles like those made by the american big three US auto makers (or british auto makers), went the way of the dodo bird population (i.e. sales went to zero), while vehicles made by the japanese took market share because of business structure and engineering

1970s American Cars Damning Review | Jeremy Clarkson's Motorworld | BBC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjzpx_jUUA0


Understanding Japanese Keiretsu

The structure of major companies in Japan, known as Keiretsu, is steeped in tradition and relationships.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... iretsu.asp


Kaizen with Six Sigma Ensures Continuous Improvement

Kaizen is a Japanese philosophy that focuses on continual improvement throughout all aspects of life. When applied to the workplace, Kaizen activities can improve every function of a business, from manufacturing to marketing,...

https://www.isixsigma.com/methodology/k ... provement/


FWIW the reason I quoted a passage from the bible is because there is some basis in fact that the punchline from Genesis 6:17 (i.e. every thing that is in the earth shall die), is pretty much what various scientific reports state might come about because of climate change,...

Will Humans Survive the Sixth Great Extinction?

In the last half-billion years, life on Earth has been nearly wiped out five times—by such things as climate change, an intense ice age, volcanoes, and that space rock that smashed into the Gulf of Mexico 65 million years ago, obliterating the dinosaurs and a bunch of other species. These events are known as the Big Five mass extinctions, and all signs suggest we are now on the precipice of a sixth.

Except this time, we have no one but ourselves to blame. According to a study published last week in Science Advances, the current extinction rate could be more than 100 times higher than normal—and that’s only taking into account the kinds of animals we know the most about,...


https://news.nationalgeographic.com/201 ... nce-world/


Scripps Study (There’s A Chance Climate Change Can Wipe Out Humans By 2050)

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2017/sep/15/sc ... e-can-wip/

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/new ... story.html


AND perhaps one means to stack the odds against that fate, is to,...

Appeal to what people already believe

Co-author Gró Einarsdóttir, a PhD student from the University of Gothenburg, describes how emphasising the co-benefits of tackling climate change can influence people’s motivation to act.

“Co-benefits are basically when you take things that many people already care about and connect this with taking action on climate or other environmental issues


http://sciencenordic.com/how-we-motivat ... ate-change


Heritable traits in natural selection do not take place deliberately.
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