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Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 18:25:04

chilyb wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
dissident wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:What apology?
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56S ... 987747.pdf
Your not going to get to Borrow or anywhere else for a while.
Edit to ad a link to a wider view.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/imagery/a ... 223600.gif


All your posts on the subject of climate change are nothing but nitpicking BS. You are clearly not even qualified to discuss this subject.

Well feel free to only discuss things with people that agree with you totally. If you all stand in a circle your can wear your arms out patting each other on the back.


Hi vtsnowedin,

I don't really get your point. What does getting to Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) have to do with the amount of current sea ice in the Bering Sea / Strait? I think the people who follow this thread will be reasonably aware that there is still a significant amount of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea.

But at least we can agree that vox_mundi is not a liar, despite your claim that he appears to be obscuring the truth somehow.

I clearly stated that Vox was not lying but pointed out that he (in my opinion) was overstating the facts. As the sun climbs higher his position will gain strength and I acknowledge that but many would have you believe that the whole arctic will be blue water sailing by Memorial day and that is just not the case.
The realities of climate change are severe enough that we don't need any exaggerations about the extent of the changes or the consequences of those changes by chicken little's.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 21:22:31

Image
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby chilyb » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 22:02:16

Dear vtsnowedin,

I clearly stated that Vox was not lying but pointed out that he (in my opinion) was overstating the facts. As the sun climbs higher his position will gain strength and I acknowledge that but many would have you believe that the whole arctic will be blue water sailing by Memorial day and that is just not the case.
The realities of climate change are severe enough that we don't need any exaggerations about the extent of the changes or the consequences of those changes by chicken little's.


I understand now. I was not aware that vox_mundi has an agenda up his sleeve. I also agree that blue water sailing to the North Pole by Memorial Day is a ridiculous notion - if that is what vox_mundi was suggesting with his comment about the amount of sea ice currently found in the Bering Strait. I try to look at the data and draw my own conclusions. Thank you.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 22:23:07

vt wrote: "many would have you believe that the whole arctic will be blue water sailing by Memorial day "

Wait, what?

Who has said this? Where are these 'many'? Maybe I haven't followed the thread as closely as I should have and missed something. Please link to whoever is making these claims, just to help us all follow the conversation. Thanks. :)
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 04 May 2018, 01:38:17

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 969626599f



In the middle of February, one-third of the ice covering the Bering Sea off Alaska’s West Coast vanished within a week when an enormous pulse of heat swept over the Arctic. Scientists were stunned.

This rapid meltdown precipitated a record-shattering decline in Bering Sea ice through the winter and into spring, which has threatened the very way of life in Alaska’s coastal villages — reliant on the ice cover for transportation and hunting.

February and March ice levels were as low as far back as scientists can reconstruct, dating back more than 160 years.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 04 May 2018, 15:09:52

The image I linked above updates automatically as the web site it feeds from updates usually one day behind the calendar. Today it is showing May 3, 2018 with the ice already receding from the northwest corner of the Alaskan Arctic coastline. I don't have any images handy to compare to, but that strikes me as extraordinarily early in the season for this event.

Here is a different image showing the entire Arctic basin,
Image
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 27 May 2018, 15:12:23

https://gritpost.com/humans-extinct-climate-change/
The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,” Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years."
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 27 May 2018, 16:21:42

There was just an article in our local newspaper here in central Alaska reporting that the International maritime organization in charge of shipping has approved new shipping routes through the Bering Sea into the Arctic Ocean.

maritime-organization-approves-bering-strait-shipping-routes

Interestingly, this was a joint US-Russian proposal for the new shipping routes, which are needed for commercial freight ships to begin crossing the Arctic ocean.

Image
Commercial shipping routes through the Bering Straight and into the blue waters of the Arctic Ocean have just been approved.

Cheers!
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 29 May 2018, 04:35:28

Record low albedo @ artic ocean:
Image

So -2 million km² sea ice means ~ (10^12-10^11 kwatt/sec) heat radiated into the artic ocean via our sun.

compare

http://arctic-news.blogspot.de/2013/08/ ... hange.html

Image
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/ ... p?id=84930
The big problem is the East Siberian shallow water region warming with 5000 GT ice-methan :!:
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 30 May 2018, 03:42:49

onlooker wrote:https://gritpost.com/humans-extinct-climate-change/
The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero,” Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years."


What a load of crud. First off the prediction that a warmer Earth means extinction of Humanity is assumed, not in any way demonstrated. Second, thedea that 25 large corporations are responsible instead of the 7 billion adults who choose to burn cheap fossil fuels is simply an attempt to avoid responsibility. You could line up every peson working at those 25 companies from CEO down to janitor and throw them in prisons. What happens then? I'll give you a hnt, the 7 billion consumers still want those fossil fuels.

Yup, that means all the other fossil fuel providers beyond those 25 would have massive incentive to expand their production to meet the demand from those 7 billion consumers. Lots of new companies would be founded and the ones gelow the cutt off level would rapidly grow. In five years it would be as if the top 25 had never been removed.

Wishing for humanity to change its basic drives is not an effective strategy if you want to survive individually, or as a species. We should have transitioned away from fossil fuels in the 1950's as soon as we discovered alternative energy sources, but we did not. We could have used a 20 year plan to completely stop burnng fossil carbon, but when we passed the 300 ppmv CO2 level we were already outside the bounds of natural variation from the last 6 million years. In case you are unaware we were around 310 ppmv CO2 when Dr, Keeling began regular monitoring of atmospheric levels in the 1950's. Ultimately that means nearly everyone alive today was born in a world already outside of the cycle of natural variation, inclding all those new prisoners who work for the 25 largest corporations.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 30 May 2018, 05:47:49

Tanada,

Take a look at this suite of charts. Sweep down and look for historical data graphs and also deviation from norm charts.

http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page2. ... ern+Arctic
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sat 09 Jun 2018, 14:31:52

I noticed tents set up on the arctic ice near the North pole:

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p ... 1428706725

Is it me or when you zoom out, does it look like the whole thing could just 'go' this year? Notably the area north of the Canadian archipelago which usually has the oldest, thickest ice is already starting to break apart.
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Arctic melt, storms of our lives........

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 05:44:30

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FntMMsyGXvU

Using European Satellite Data (Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service; CAMS) I show that methane is now venting into the air at the surface in the Arctic in the Kara Sea off the Russian Island of Novaya Zemlya. It must be seeping from the ocean floor, bubbling up through the shallow water column and working its way through the sea ice cover. You may recall that many large “methane craters” have been discovered lately on the Yamal Peninsula which juts out into the Kara Sea in this region.


Unprecedented Storms of OUR Lives: Climate Bomb Mayhem

Paul B with educational YouTube video on methane venting near Nova Zembla, direct proof of what we have been discussing for over a decade now, the leaking subsea permafrost holding back all those Gtonnes of methane mix, hydrates and free methane ready to go.


Might be better posted on Methane thread though.

Reason I post on this place were this YouTube, together with some more, all connected, ice/sea/methane and the jet, our precious poles, ready to flip into a liquid warm phase, the engines of abrupt CC. Relic sea ice is the only thing holding back the bomb, all of organic complex life being in a very fast accelerated abrupt CC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezdiqPEDXKE

Gepubliceerd op 30 jun. 2017

There is a very high probability that the Arctic sea ice will essentially vanish by the end of summer melt in 2020 or earlier. The ice-free duration would likely be less than one-month in September for this first "blue-ocean" event.
I discuss the stories in the observations leading me to this conclusion. If the ice goes, it will affect every human, plant and animal living on our planet.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dq6LKGWtHgA

Gepubliceerd op 19 jun. 2017

Many people use natural gas to heat their homes, without realizing that it is primarily composed of methane --- CH4. Methane levels in the Arctic are much higher than elsewhere on our planet, and are rapidly rising. I discuss where it comes from (sources); how it is removed from the atmosphere (sinks), and how it varies with latitude. As the Arctic continues to warm, the levels are rapidly rising, with greatly increased risks.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ovq2El0mvE

Gepubliceerd op 30 jun. 2017
Let's say the Arctic Ocean Sea Ice completely vanishes by 2020 (or sooner) for the month of September.
What happens afterwards to the ice. Does it vanish for longer and longer durations until it is gone year round? Do we reach a state with 6 months of ice in winter and open water all summer? Does something else happen?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqQ-fxEcp3Y

Gepubliceerd op 24 jan. 2018
Human experience with weather is all within the lower atmosphere (troposphere). Above this is the stratosphere, where the protective ozone layer resides. Near the borderline (tropopause) jet streams (aka Rossby Waves or Tropospheric Polar Vortices) circumvent the planet, dividing cold dry polar air from hot moist equatorial derived air, and guiding storms. Much less well known is the Stratospheric Polar Vortex that crucially interacts with the jet streams affecting surface weather, and vice versa.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q84m8Qsf-f4

As jet streams circle the Earth dictating weather patterns and becoming slower and wavier from climate change, they are more often thrust upwards by mountains and land/ocean temperature differences. This causes Sudden Stratospheric Warming, and can split and/or displace the Stratospheric Polar Vortex. This in turn, feeds back to amplify/fracture/slow the Rossby Waves and increase the severity/frequency/duration and location of extreme weather events and overall climate mayhem.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbn012uiPBs

Weather bomb. Bombogenesis. Cyclone Bomb. Terms for the beast that hammered North America’s East Coast, knocking iguanas out of trees in Florida, bringing ice floes from the ocean onto coastal Boston streets, and dumping feet of snow. Air pressure in the “eye” plummeted faster than most hurricanes (59 mb in 24 hours) to 951 mb (equivalent to a Category 3 storm). Climate change disruption of our planetary heat transport via atmosphere and oceans is accelerating; this is just the first few moves of the chess game.
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time for the Prince solution

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 06:44:54

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0TUrf6GBns

Since 2010 I have been educating the public on rapid climate system change. I have connected the dots between Arctic Temperature Amplification, slowing and wavier Jet Streams, and increases in the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events. These linkages are all being confirmed in the scientific literature. In this first of a series of videos I examine conclusions of -100 top scientists who met to examine “Arctic Change and Possible Influence on Mid-Latitude Climate and Weather”, detailed in a new March 2018 report.


Paul B with a summery of present situation, he started with booze and smoke, the Prince solution, party like it's 99!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dC1iVCqmx0

What happens if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning (AMOC) slows down, or even stops? The former has happened, and if the latter occurs there will be global chaos. How close are we to reaching the threshold for a “rewriting” of global ocean circulation? If it occurs, will it be permanent, for at least hundreds of years? How much will already extreme weather change, and how much will global food supply be impacted
?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblt2EtFfC4 Prince solution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldrpsq_L-wY


Severe Global Water Cycle Shifts from Abrupt Climate Change

Gepubliceerd op 27 mei 2018

Freshwater availability for drinking is being disrupted around Earth. Same for irrigation water relied upon to grow many crops. Soils are drying out and groundwater is being depleted much faster than it can be recharged. Alpine glacier water storage in snow and ice is collapsing, and extreme droughts in some places and torrential rains with floods in other places is accelerating. I discuss Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) measurements from GRACE satellites, and changes around Earth from 2002 to 2016, while the satellites ran.

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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 10 Jun 2018, 11:04:41

https://www.nap.edu/read/10136/chapter/5#76
3 Processes That Cause Abrupt Climate Change
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Last Breath.......

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 11 Jun 2018, 12:17:06

Watching a setting sun, wonder wether it'll rise again..........

To let Paul B. come back to our precious ice:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSXz-dTGVvI

Elaborating on my last video; I take a cold, hard look at the reality of vanishing Arctic sea-ice. All signs point to an Arctic in collapse. Cold air is flooding out of the Arctic, pushing the jet stream far south, putting North America in a highly variable deep freeze that will be seen in a few years as a “last gasp” Arctic “death rattle”.

Unfortunately, our climate is highly nonlinear, and we have already crossed thresholds. The Arctic is the Achilles Heel or lynchpin of the entire system, and it is undergoing convulsions.
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 16 Jun 2018, 21:39:29

Arctic Sea Ice at 4th Lowest Extent on Record

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/15/ ... on-record/
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 19 Jun 2018, 09:21:49

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 13, 2018
High Temperatures Over Arctic Ocean In June 2018

It was 6.6°C or 44°F (at 850 hPa) over the North Pole due to hot air flowing from Siberia over the Arctic Ocean on June 13, 2018, 15:00 UTC (left panel). Earlier, temperatures as high as 7°C or 44.5°F were forecast. At the same time, the Jet stream (250 hPa) crosses the Arctic Ocean and goes circular over North Canada and Baffin Bay (right panel).

Image
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 22 Jun 2018, 17:22:53

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/21/ ... permanent/

How Arctic Sea Ice Loss Could Make the Hot Pacific Blob Permanent
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Re: Arctic Sea Ice 2018

Unread postby tahoe1780 » Fri 22 Jun 2018, 18:05:47

I wonder if they got a deal from Solar City for solar panels to run the ski slope and ice climbing wall in Miami??? Oh wait... https://tinyurl.com/y86ljqpa


$4 Billion Miami Mega-Mall Moves Ahead, Ignores "Collective Belief In Sea-Level Rise"
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by Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/22/2018 - 17:27

Plans for a $4 billion mega-mall to be built on the coast line city of Miami are pushing forward, despite the fact that the city is likely going to have to deal with rising sea levels and worsening weather as the years progress. Or, it simply could find itself underwater within years, if other projections are accurate.

But don't worry - academics at the University of Penn Wharton School of Business have a solution: just ignore the fact that Miami will soon be underwater, because otherwise you could create a panic that could, in turn, slow down tax revenue that the city is desperately going to need to - wait for it - adapt to being underwater.

So in the great spirit of Keynes himself, the project is pushing forward.





Government and developers are collectively moving forward on a project for a 6.2 million square foot mall that would house on its property a waterpark, ski slopes, and 2,000 hotel rooms. You may be asking yourself one, or both, of the following two questions.

1. Will Miami be underwater in several years?

2. Aren't most malls collapsing and simply going out of business?

But this mall is part of a new theory on building malls: one that focuses not only on customers buying things, but also buying experiences.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the project moving forward:

At a time when store closures are accelerating and struggling malls pockmark the country, county commissioners in Florida have approved a plan to build what would be the largest mall in the U.S.

American Dream Miami would also be the most expensive mall ever built, according to Canadian developer Triple Five Worldwide Group of Cos. The 6.2-million-square-foot retail and entertainment complex would cost an estimated $4 billion, Triple Five says.

The cost would include 2,000 hotel rooms, indoor ski slope, ice-climbing wall and waterpark with a “submarine lake,” where guests could enter a plexiglass submarine and descend underwater.

Edmonton, Alberta-based Triple Five secured zoning approval in May from the Miami-Dade County Commission in an 11-1 vote, and is now in the process to secure environmental and water permits for the 174-acre site.

The project provides a window into the thinking of North America’s largest mall developers as they confront the revolution in the shopping world sparked by e-commerce. They recognize it’s no longer enough to fill malls with stores selling clothing, food, electronics and other merchandise people can more easily buy online.

Rather developers are filling malls with restaurants, rides, trampoline parks, gyms, services and other types of entertainment. This strategy taps into the increasing preference of consumers to spend their money on experiences as opposed to goods.

And, of course, like any project developer that takes on massive, potentially risky projects, this one has a history of landing government subsidies, despite claiming that it doesn't want to.

A big part of the debate is over whether American Dream Miami should get any public subsidies. The South Florida Taxpayers Alliance, a group of mall owners including Simon Property Group , Taubman Centers Inc. and GGP Inc , have lobbied county officials to prevent Triple Five’s project from being funded or subsidized by taxpayer dollars.

The alliance said its aim was to have a level playing field, “where the new employment opportunities promised by the developers of this massive project do not come at the expense of current jobs,” according to its website.

Triple Five had a history of landing public subsidies for Mall of America and for American Dream Meadowlands.

But Triple Five says it isn’t planning on subsidies for the Miami project. “American Dream Miami will be built by private dollars,” Mr. Diaz de la Portilla said.



And so despite the fact that things look ominous for Miami's - well, existence - real estate development in the area continues to grow. Why is this?



Because along other "common sense" lines of thinking, there is actually a scholarly argument out there that makes the case that building more real estate in Miami could be a way to combat climate change. How? By ignoring the obvious.

Yes, according to a recent Bloomberg report, published in 2014, one way that Miami residents should be planning on dealing with rising sea levels is - wait for it – pretending it doesn't exist. The report, ironically prepared by a Professor of marketing and the co-director of the Wharton Risk Center at the University of Penn, makes the following insane conclusion:



That’s right, this study (surprisingly not funded by mall developers themselves), concluded that ignoring the problem could be the best way to create a false illusion of safety in the area and help generate the tax money needed to eventually deal with the coming change that will have to happen as a result of the sea levels rising.

Only in the world of Keynesian economics does this project - or anything related to it - makes sense.
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