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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 16 Apr 2018, 20:16:49

Good luck with your Ev's when there are lots of holes in the road. This is the future starting from the present.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Yonnipun » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 01:52:42

I think we can safely say that the price for electricity will skyrocket when the electric car becomes mainstream. Many people use electricity to heat the house with heat pumps which then becomes pointless. They have to go back the old coal burning boilers again.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 02:38:17

That is ridiculous. The experience here in California where we have more EVs than the rest of the USA is that these vehicles are charged at night during off-peak rates when electricity is 1/3 the average cost. The nighttime charging uses excess grid distribution capacity and generating capacity, it increases grid utilization without requiring any buildouts for the grid itself.

Since net metering is mandated by law and so many have solar PV roofs here, many people are effectively paying for their transportation with the excess electricity they generate during the day. They are effectively riding around on sunlight.

We don't import electricity from the Middle East, we produce it all right here, with American jobs. We don't need to go to war, spending money and the lives of our children to fill the tank of an EV either.

I think Trump should benefit the economy, help the environment, and ensure his re-election by banning oil imports.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 02:40:08

Yonnipun wrote:I think we can safely say that the price for electricity will skyrocket when the electric car becomes mainstream. Many people use electricity to heat the house with heat pumps which then becomes pointless. They have to go back the old coal burning boilers again.

Everything you predict here is wrong, IMO.

A heat pump is more efficient than traditional forced air heating in all but the most brutal cold, if installed with modern technology. That won't change just because someone gets an EV.

An EV can be charged with electricity from burning FF's or green tech, or both.

The EV will become mainstream over a period of decades. First, much of the demand can be met with the current system, just by being intelligent about when the EV charging takes place. Second, why would you imagine that over decades as demand increases that capacity cannot? Third, advances in green tech and battery back up systems are going to help solve the problem -- and will be adopted in coming years/decades by many homeowners to save money. Having one or more EV's just makes the case for such tech. stronger.

https://www.fleetcarma.com/impact-growi ... ity-grids/

Do some reading. Uninformed doomer intuition isn't a good way to predict future economics, based on decades of the track record.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 05:47:39

While we can charge the few EVs there are at present off peak we can not convert the entire auto fleet to EV without doubling the size of the electric grid. Off peak power is when demand is so low that boilers are idled and water turbines shut off. In crease demand and throttles have to be opened and more water drained from the dam. In the West there is no more water to be put through the turbines. We currently burn ten million barrels of gasoline every day in the USA. It will take 17 million Mega watt hours (MWH) of electricity a day to replace it. That is a lot of solar panels and wind mills.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 08:25:12

vtsnowedin wrote:more water drained from the dam.


Which is why Tesla is also in solar and the utility-grade battery backup business.

It's perfect vertical integration which makes sense if they last long enough to put all that into play.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 12:17:02

vtsnowedin wrote: It will take 17 million Mega watt hours (MWH) of electricity a day to replace it. That is a lot of solar panels and wind mills.

Why is it that over the course of coming decades, a tremendous amount of solar panels and wind mills can't be installed? Especially as the financial incentive becomes stronger as green tech improves.

I don't understand the 'X is a problem today, so it can't happen in 30 to 50 years" when the trends and tech. leading to X are already in place. And that's if things don't improve in ways we don't expect (like solid state lithium batteries being printed, or better battery chemistries being actively researched).

Just because it won't be swift or super-easy doesn't mean it's not inevitable -- with the right financial incentives. And when oil/NG gets expensive due to demand consistently outpacing supply, that will clearly happen -- even if people NEVER accept any CO2 taxes.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 12:19:47

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:more water drained from the dam.


Which is why Tesla is also in solar and the utility-grade battery backup business.

It's perfect vertical integration which makes sense if they last long enough to put all that into play.

And its not as if Tesla going bankrupt makes the technologies go away, or the incentives to use them go away. Actually, I'd have far more faith in steady engineering, car building know how, deep financial pockets, and a long term commitment toward greener tech of an automaker like Toyota, to provide millions of EV's of all stripes year after year in the long run.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 12:31:08

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:more water drained from the dam.


Which is why Tesla is also in solar and the utility-grade battery backup business.

It's perfect vertical integration which makes sense if they last long enough to put all that into play.

And its not as if Tesla going bankrupt makes the technologies go away, or the incentives to use them go away. Actually, I'd have far more faith in steady engineering, car building know how, deep financial pockets, and a long term commitment toward greener tech of an automaker like Toyota, to provide millions of EV's of all stripes year after year in the long run.


Meanwhile, Outcast_Searcher cannot actually demonstrate how it will work, just blind faith in stupid scams like Tesla. Tesla was about perfect business execution. What a joke that has turned out to be. All it is a hype machine for useless sports cars.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 13:13:48

StarvingLion wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:more water drained from the dam.


Which is why Tesla is also in solar and the utility-grade battery backup business.

It's perfect vertical integration which makes sense if they last long enough to put all that into play.

And its not as if Tesla going bankrupt makes the technologies go away, or the incentives to use them go away. Actually, I'd have far more faith in steady engineering, car building know how, deep financial pockets, and a long term commitment toward greener tech of an automaker like Toyota, to provide millions of EV's of all stripes year after year in the long run.


Meanwhile, Outcast_Searcher cannot actually demonstrate how it will work, just blind faith in stupid scams like Tesla. Tesla was about perfect business execution. What a joke that has turned out to be. All it is a hype machine for useless sports cars.

"IN AN INDUSTRIALIZED SOCIETY, IT FALLS TO THE PROMOTERS OF A FUTURE FOR “RENEWABLE”
ENERGY TO SHOW HOW THESE ESSENTIAL MATERIALS AND SO MUCH ELSE CAN BE PROVIDED."

John Weber

http://sunweber.blogspot.ca/2017/08/hea ... -used.html


So in your world, pointing out how Tesla may well go bankrupt (as I have done many times) is "blind faith" in Tesla. :!: :?

Based on the content of your posts and the credability of your claims over time, I estimate you to be a teenage troll, typing from mommy's basement. Does that fulfill you?

Try reading Tony Seba or watching his Youtube video on how green tech will build out for economic reasons, for a tutorial on how it will work.

I think it will take 30 to 50 years for EV's to become solidly dominant, unlike Seba's shorter timeline, which assumes fully autonomous EV's will greatly accelerate that trend. (I think he's wrong on how quickly fully autonomous, cheap, widely accepted cars will be ready for prime time, unfenced, in all weather conditions).

However, the basic economic trends for things like solar roofs are already in place.

....

But the best you can do is claim everything you can't understand is "a scam". How brilliant. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 13:16:06

KaiserJeep wrote:I think Trump should benefit the economy, help the environment, and ensure his re-election by banning oil imports.

I doubt that. Of the 8.6 million barrels we import every day we refine and ship back out 5.4mbpd at a profit. If it ain't broke don't fix it.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 13:19:21

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Why is it that over the course of coming decades, a tremendous amount of solar panels and wind mills can't be installed?


Probably for the same reason 10 years ago people were saying shale couldn't be a thing.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 13:24:14

KaiserJeep wrote:I think Trump should benefit the economy, help the environment, and ensure his re-election by banning oil imports.

Sarcasm? Because I don't see how that works.

First, it would likely hurt the US economy in the short run. And the world would still burn the same amount of oil, assuming we'd import any needed gas and diesel.

Because if you just drastically cut off how many oil products US voters can use, causing shortages and massive price spikes -- then it's fair to say he would NOT be ensuring his re-election. If other adjustments are allowed to compensate for banning importing crude -- then there is NO meaningful net change to the overall environment.

You can't have it both ways. Oil is produced, shipped, refined, and the products are consumed or burned -- or they're not.

...

Seriously, if this isn't sarcasm, can you flesh out how it would work? And how it would help the economy and the environment, and his election plans simultaneously? Because if it would, then the GOP should get right on that, but frankly, I have very serious doubts.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Yonnipun » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 14:56:56

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Everything you predict here is wrong, IMO.



Why? If demand rises the price must go up. As already said the grid must be also ridiculously upgraded even if people will charge only at night. Basically I think they need to build separate powerlines from the substations specially for charging. Just imagine when hundreds and hundreds of people form some apartment building plug their EV-s into the grid at nigh. No way the main circuit braker of the house could handle the load. The powerline from the substation is also not rated for that kind of power. Also the power transformer from the substation will not handle the load.All of this equipment needs to be changed. The high voltage powerlines are probably fine but the question is about low voltage powelines. All the work and resources to maintain that new grid will affect the price of the electricity.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 15:38:40

I've been playing around with the numbers. It looks like you need about 6000 KWHs a year of electricity to charge a model 3 for 40 miles a day use. That would cost me $1380 at current rates here. But assuming I or my utility has to create this new capacity I find people promising 15 kwhs per sq. ft. of solar panel per year in Vermont. So 750 ft.^2 would yield 11,250 KWHs per year, which would be enough to charge the Tesla and run the house. A single Tesla power wall could hold all that and cost about $7000 installed and the panels would cost about $12,000 for a total of $20,000. My electric bills run about $80 a month or less so $960 a year so a total of $2340 a year if I just feed off the grid. But if the grid has to expand because everybody is switching to electric those prices will probably go up.
I don't drive 40 miles a day any more but the average American dose so lets stick with that. My truck gets >20 mpg or better depending on how deep the snow or mud is so 2 gallons a day at $2.67 current price so $1950 bucks a year.
So over ten years it is perhaps a wash or a significant savings if fuel prices go up.
All of those numbers are guesstimates at best especially the output over a year of solar panels in Vermont. So no quibbling about small differences that are within the range of uncertainty about any assumed number.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 16:07:53

Look folks, sometimes you forget the basics.

We are running out of oil. It's not happening tomorrow, it's not happening quickly. But it will none the less happen. Beginning a wholesale conversion from ICE vehicles to EVs is essential while we still have the runway (and cheap energy) to do so.

There are a plentitude of uses for petroleum, some such as plastics for medical applications, electronic printed circuit boards, and durable food storage containers to name just a few, are arguably more important uses for petroleum than burning it for vehicle fuels. As I have stated many times, oil is simply too precious to burn.

I fully understand that EVs are disruptive to the status quo. I understand that for many but not all applications, there is no monetary argument because EVs will for some applications cost more than ICE at present fuel costs.

But every argument you make against EVs and EV technology falls flat in the face of that one inescapable fact: We are running short of oil, new oil fields are not being discovered at rates sufficient to keep up with new fuel demands from countries with new Middle Class populations demanding cars and trucks, and fuel costs will unevenly increase over time. Perhaps in a decade or less, ICE tech will face operating costs that are double what they are today, because we have already picked all the low hanging fruit when it comes to fuel efficiency.

We need to start the wholesale recycling of our existing fleet of ICE vehicles to EVs. Some politician needs to go out and flatly ban oil imports and exports both. We need all our domestic oil for applications that don't include fuels.

Trump is the ideal person to do this. He has a proven ability to get things done, and does not share that pathological weakness of other politicians, a need to be popular to garner votes. In fact, most people including me, seem to detest him. He certainly has earned the enmity of many groups including women and Greenies. However, if I think he has a viable plan to get us largely off of our present dependance on oil, I'll vote for him to get a second term as POTUS.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 17:05:16

Yonnipun wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Everything you predict here is wrong, IMO.


Why? If demand rises the price must go up.

Wrong. Demand is only half the equation. The other side is supply. If ONLY demand rose, then the price would rise, likely significantly. In the real world, more modern equipment, including a lot of new high tech green equipment / more efficient equipment will be added.

All the work and resources to maintain that new grid will affect the price of the electricity.

Wrong, because you are assuming the price must rise.

If better technology is used, and it only costs (for example) half as much as previously to build out new (largely green) infrastructure, then the buildout could easily result in the price decreasing.

You can't just look at one piece of the picture that happens to make you nervous, ignore all the other pieces, and then assume you know exactly how overall prices will behave decades hence.

If it were that easy, then for one example, the folks here could consistently predict the price of crude for the next year. But the answer is closer to the opposite. The world is a complex place.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 17:25:40

KaiserJeep wrote:Look folks, sometimes you forget the basics.

We are running out of oil. It's not happening tomorrow, it's not happening quickly. But it will none the less happen. Beginning a wholesale conversion from ICE vehicles to EVs is essential while we still have the runway (and cheap energy) to do so.

There are a plentitude of uses for petroleum, some such as plastics for medical applications, electronic printed circuit boards, and durable food storage containers to name just a few, are arguably more important uses for petroleum than burning it for vehicle fuels. As I have stated many times, oil is simply too precious to burn.

I fully understand that EVs are disruptive to the status quo. I understand that for many but not all applications, there is no monetary argument because EVs will for some applications cost more than ICE at present fuel costs.

But every argument you make against EVs and EV technology falls flat in the face of that one inescapable fact: We are running short of oil, new oil fields are not being discovered at rates sufficient to keep up with new fuel demands from countries with new Middle Class populations demanding cars and trucks, and fuel costs will unevenly increase over time. Perhaps in a decade or less, ICE tech will face operating costs that are double what they are today, because we have already picked all the low hanging fruit when it comes to fuel efficiency.

We need to start the wholesale recycling of our existing fleet of ICE vehicles to EVs. Some politician needs to go out and flatly ban oil imports and exports both. We need all our domestic oil for applications that don't include fuels.

Trump is the ideal person to do this. He has a proven ability to get things done, and does not share that pathological weakness of other politicians, a need to be popular to garner votes. In fact, most people including me, seem to detest him. He certainly has earned the enmity of many groups including women and Greenies. However, if I think he has a viable plan to get us largely off of our present dependance on oil, I'll vote for him to get a second term as POTUS.

My number crunching has it at a wash at present and I certainly don't doubt that fossil fuel prices will increase in the future making the EVs competitive. I am mostly trying to define how much work needs to be done to make the transition. It is a much larger task then many imagine but that does not mean it can't be done and in fact it most probably will be done.
But when it comes to Trump being an agent to success you are totally out to lunch.
He is a F&&king moron.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 19:36:50

All I was suggesting is that when one indulges your own preferences and votes for a personable and likeable person such as for example - Barack Obama - you all too often get somebody who is so inept he can only talk, he can't actually get anything done. Then after failing to accomplish anything he wanted and then resorting to Executive Orders, he ticks off Congress and that further damages whatever agenda you have.

By contrast, nobody likes Trump, and he doesn't care. He's getting things done, he has in fact already brought about more change than Obama did in two complete terms.

Consider that voting for somebody you like might be the entirely wrong approach to leadership.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 8

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 17 Apr 2018, 23:20:51

I must remind you that I did not vote for the jerk.
That the Republican deep state has rolled back some regulations with him in office is not a credit to him as he didn't even know the regulations existed much less know what would happen if they were relaxed.
He is an embarrassment to the Republican party and to the USA as a whole, But that said the liberal media's constant attack on a deuely elected president is nothing less then treason. Who gives a rats a$$ if he boffed some bimbo ten years ago. And if the Russians put adds out there to balance the democrats equally fake news and the voters had to consider what to believe so be it.
I don't need a Russian whispering in my ear to tell me not to vote for a Clinton.
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