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Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 25 May 2012, 20:02:09

This isn't the EV thread, though I can see the relevance, the EV is not necessarily central to discussions of moving beyond oil. I think the car has been iconized beyond sanity. Restructuring based on a combination of/ urbanization, open source grid feed systems, efficiency across the board. Much lighter, smaller vehicles, much shorter commutes, less people actually leaving the home to work, etc etc. These are what I see movement towards, which will eventually lead to another peak in resources more inescapable than peak oil. Copper, lead, rare earths.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 25 May 2012, 21:28:42

pstarr wrote:One might have predicted the thirteen Saturn V moon rockets would someday go on to be the commuter plane of the future. But one would have been wrong.


And yet... stupid spacecraft with wings are being turned into museums, and private, commercial spaceflight via sane capsule and rocket configuration is now a reality.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 25 May 2012, 22:54:36

AgentR11 wrote:
pstarr wrote:One might have predicted the thirteen Saturn V moon rockets would someday go on to be the commuter plane of the future. But one would have been wrong.


And yet... stupid spacecraft with wings are being turned into museums, and private, commercial spaceflight via sane capsule and rocket configuration is now a reality.
Low earth orbit, dude. Wanna go to the moon and back? Gotta go Saturn V. No other. First stage burn 15 tons-propellant/second. Need much more to get this to Mars for serious mining effort.


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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 25 May 2012, 23:46:47

pstarr wrote:Wanna go to the moon and back?

And back.... that is the sorry failure of our imagination and will.

Heavy lift is next. Small steps.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Lore » Fri 25 May 2012, 23:57:57

AgentR11 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Wanna go to the moon and back?

And back.... that is the sorry failure of our imagination and will.

Heavy lift is next. Small steps.


Or just possibly no lift. The fickled finger of fate could just as easily deny any space future. My crystal ball is just as good as yours.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 26 May 2012, 10:12:28

pstarr wrote:Need much more to get this to Mars for serious mining effort.


Mining on Mars for use not on Mars, or even any significant moon is pointless. It will always take more energy to lift the material than the material is worth.

Asteroids are ok, as long as you aren't in a hurry, and can prospect good candidates without going there, or at least without sending much mass to prospect. Long way off for that, and we'll probably run out the clock and miss the golden ring. Its funny in an electric thread though... one of the most propellant-mass efficient engines is an ion accelerator, which relies on electric power; and for getting a refined bar of Unobtainium back to Earth slowly and cheaply its pretty hard to beat. As long as you don't have any pesky mammals that need carting along too, that is...
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 26 May 2012, 10:15:45

Lore wrote:Or just possibly no lift. The fickled finger of fate could just as easily deny any space future. My crystal ball is just as good as yours.


No doubt there. Seems like kinda a long shot at this point, but I like hopeful things sometimes, even when they look to be out of reach.

I just hope we weren't too late in making the thing with wings go away.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby GoIllini » Fri 01 Jun 2012, 10:35:06

I think we will be running on natural gas for the next ~30 years.

The big question is whether we will build an infrastructure built around burning gas in internal combustion engines at 20% efficiency or burning gas at power plants at 45% efficiency (losing 5% in grid and electric motor losses) and powering your car off of that. Hybrids can connect to catenaries above or electrical rails in the roadbed, and run off of utility-supplied electricity at 20 cents/kwh instead of their own on-board gasoline engine (generator) at 6 kwh/gallon.

If we do that, we will put a lot more optionality into the system. When we run out of natural gas, we can disconnect the natural gas plants from the grid and stick a Gen II Fission plant in its place, or better yet an LFTR, fusion reactor, or solar plant. We don't need to know what the energy technology will be yet- just that there will be something. And we get twice as much propulsion out of the same natural gas by burning it using the power plant's 100MWe combined cycle turbine rather than using something less efficient that can fit under a car hood.
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What if every car sold in the world was an electric vehicle?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 22:12:23

Big Oil is finally contemplating the unthinkable, and until recently what was also unimaginable for them. What if every car solar across the globe was an electric vehicle? What would that do to their trillion-dollar business model? Well, they’ve looked at it. They’ve crunched the numbers. But they are not telling. At least that is the sense you get BP’s latest Energy Outlook, now a major annual event that gives an insight into how quickly Big Oil is prepared to concede that the energy transition will occur. Because of who they are, and what’s at stake, you can reliably assume that the predicted transition would never be too quick to scare off their investors. And that holds true in this latest edition. Still, the latest BP Energy Outlook ponders this very question: What if – in 2040 – internal combustion engines were banned across the


What if every car sold in the world was an electric vehicle?
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 28 Feb 2018, 11:09:48

GoIllini wrote:I think we will be running on natural gas for the next ~30 years.


I remember reading an artile on TOD about how the northeast would suffer because of a lack of natural gas 10 years ago. That was prior to the fracking boom. Point being that the accuracy of predictions seem to fall off dramatically the further in the future you want to go.

Remember Who Killed the Electric Car? That one built a narrative in which the majors conspired to bury what they thought was the main disruptor...

...NiMh batteries!!! (cue dramatic music)
Image
Image

The narrative went up in smoke once lithium overtook NiMh and Chevy broke from its mustache-twisting role and introduced the Volt. Now nobody talks about Cobasys and NiMh anymore. But at the time, that narrative was extremely attractive to the leftie/greenie contingent who were feeling like they were under the heel of the Bush administration and his oil cronies.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 12:52:06

U.S. energy storage market to nearly triple this year

Reuters Reuters•March 6, 2018
By Nichola Groom

March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. deployments of energy storage systems will nearly triple this year thanks to sharply lower costs and state policies that support the case for installing batteries in homes, businesses and along the power grid.

...

Storage system costs have fallen by roughly two thirds in the last five years, Manghani said. In addition, more states are mandating utilities procure storage systems.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-energy ... 00758.html
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 13:07:19

asg70 wrote:The narrative went up in smoke once lithium overtook NiMh and Chevy broke from its mustache-twisting role and introduced the Volt. Now nobody talks about Cobasys and NiMh anymore. But at the time, that narrative was extremely attractive to the leftie/greenie contingent who were feeling like they were under the heel of the Bush administration and his oil cronies.

OTOH, here we are with GM and a REAL, viable, practical, long range EV, which has gotten good reviews (even on reliablity via Consumer Reports -- a rarity for GM) -- via the Bolt.

BUT, per my observations and MANY from commenters on the web on EV articles that reference the Bolt -- GM is treating the Bolt like a compliance car. Low production. Low inventories. ZERO inventories in the vast majority of the US. (To the point there's plenty of web ads in red states claiming people should come on down and test drive a Bolt at a nearby dealer -- but of course, checking on inventories consistently yields ZERO Bolts on hand). Note to auto dealers -- blatantly lying to me, month after month via your ads makes the odds I'll want to deal with you ZERO.

So, while Tesla stumbles along with underproduction, no inexpensive version availability, reported fit and finish quality problems, etc. on the Model 3, GM does NOTHING to take advantage of their window of opportunity.

As much as I HATE GM re their durability and service reputation, I might even take a chance on a Bolt, just as a matter of principle since it meets my needs and nothing else readily available does -- except if I can't get one in KY and have NO confidence GM would service it competently (re their lack of interest) if I could -- why would I when I see GM as a third tier auto-maker anyway?

Meanwhile, demand for the Volt is slipping dramatically. Unlike the first version, Consumer Reports is panning its quality, and it's not looking so great vs. other HEV's and PHEV's as time goes on.

Either GM is as stupid and hapless as I think they are generally, or they truly don't want to undercut their traditional ICE high profit market in the short term (making them the subject of much future laughter (from me anyway) if the likes of VW, Volvo, Tesla, Toyota, Honda, etc. eat their lunch in the EV market over the coming decade and beyond.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 06 Mar 2018, 13:55:35

Tesla appears to have caught up with Model S demand. Here in California you can take delivery of a new Model S from inventory in 1 week, or wait 3 weeks for the exact color and option list you want, including the priciest "Ludicrous" P100D. That approximately $150,000 top end Model S has also beat out the fastest ICE cars and is in the second year as the fastest production car ever....
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 11:46:45

Outcast_Searcher wrote:GM is treating the Bolt like a compliance car.


That's because it IS a compliance car. It's just a compliance car that has crossed the magic 200 mile threshold.

Please go to Google News and check out what was shown at the Geneva car show. What you see there is indicative of what the car scene will look like in another year or two, and the trend is obvious.

Image

The Bolt won its share of symbolic awards but in the next few years it will be swamped with newer, more stylish, altogether more aspirational models, including from GM.

So I really don't care about the fate of the Bolt itself.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Either GM is as stupid and hapless...


OS, you really should spend more time keeping up with the news. GM has more EVs in the pipeline. They just haven't revealed them yet. I don't think they are going out of their way to push the Bolt because they know it was a rushjob and its lifecycle will be brief. Wait for the next wave.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby baha » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 13:45:38

I agree ASG, The next wave will be better.

I read at least one of the new EVs has two trunks, like a Tesla. I think it was a Range Rover. That is the kind of re-think that's needed. No need to access a dirty engine compartment for tune-ups or repairs. Use the space for stuff.

And the transmission tunnel thru the passenger compartment has to go. No more driveshafts or exhaust pipes. It makes the interior look like a carriage. I want to know this car is electric just by looking :)
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 07 Mar 2018, 13:58:49

asg70 wrote:OS, you really should spend more time keeping up with the news. GM has more EVs in the pipeline. They just haven't revealed them yet. I don't think they are going out of their way to push the Bolt because they know it was a rushjob and its lifecycle will be brief. Wait for the next wave.

OK. So I think the difference between us is you are putting a LOT of faith in what may or may not be empty promises by GM and other car builders.

If they build a few EV's will they be good, re what people want? Or will they merely be more compliance cars?

Given the way car companies (re marketeers) tend to promise the world and then under deliver or not deliver at all (look how many concept cars grace the halls of auto shows, never to be seen again), I'm in the "show me" mode.

The reason I was enthused about the Bolt was it was SUPPOSEDLY going to be an EV people in all 50 US states could buy NOW, or certainly by mid-2018 or so. Instead, it's mostly a pack of lies, re availability, reminding me, thus far, of the Model 3 and Musk's over-promising.

I actually look for EV news quite a bit. And unsurprisingly, GM's promises of what they will supposedly do in 3 or 5 years, don't stand out much from VW, Volvo, Ford, Toyota, and on and on.

Semantics, I guess.

Look, I'll be simply DELIGHTED if in 2023 the world is virtually blanketed with real world volume production of high quality middle class cost EV's, which are easily obtainable and readily and reliably serviced in or near my top 100 red state city.

Not compliance cars. Not cars not sold or serviced in my state by a dealer. Not cars they won't have in stock until 2025, etc. Not cars that cost $50,000 and up and have significant issues re daily convenience.

We'll see. IMO, the jury is still out.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 12:56:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
asg70 wrote:OS, you really should spend more time keeping up with the news. GM has more EVs in the pipeline. They just haven't revealed them yet. I don't think they are going out of their way to push the Bolt because they know it was a rushjob and its lifecycle will be brief. Wait for the next wave.

OK. So I think the difference between us is you are putting a LOT of faith in what may or may not be empty promises by GM and other car builders.

If they build a few EV's will they be good, re what people want? Or will they merely be more compliance cars?

Given the way car companies (re marketeers) tend to promise the world and then under deliver or not deliver at all (look how many concept cars grace the halls of auto shows, never to be seen again), I'm in the "show me" mode.

The reason I was enthused about the Bolt was it was SUPPOSEDLY going to be an EV people in all 50 US states could buy NOW, or certainly by mid-2018 or so. Instead, it's mostly a pack of lies, re availability, reminding me, thus far, of the Model 3 and Musk's over-promising.

I actually look for EV news quite a bit. And unsurprisingly, GM's promises of what they will supposedly do in 3 or 5 years, don't stand out much from VW, Volvo, Ford, Toyota, and on and on.

Semantics, I guess.

Look, I'll be simply DELIGHTED if in 2023 the world is virtually blanketed with real world volume production of high quality middle class cost EV's, which are easily obtainable and readily and reliably serviced in or near my top 100 red state city.

Not compliance cars. Not cars not sold or serviced in my state by a dealer. Not cars they won't have in stock until 2025, etc. Not cars that cost $50,000 and up and have significant issues re daily convenience.

We'll see. IMO, the jury is still out.


Don't think so. TSLA stock can't seem to hold $300 and its been a dead investment for the past year. Musk Enterprises is already BANKRUPT.

Unless someone Masters The Quantum in about 2 year and produces electric vehicles that are far superior than Tesla's lame offerings, the USA Housing Stock is Worthless.

Incremental improvements over decades are not going to cut it. 2 YEAR before the Permian goes bust

And, no, GM, Ford, BMW, VW, etc and whatnot are not going to be successful pure EV manufacturers.
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Re: Peak What?/ The Future is Electric.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 15:11:33

StarvingLion wrote:Unless someone Masters The Quantum in about 2 year and produces electric vehicles that are far superior than Tesla's lame offerings, the USA Housing Stock is Worthless.

Incremental improvements over decades are not going to cut it. 2 YEAR before the Permian goes bust

And, no, GM, Ford, BMW, VW, etc and whatnot are not going to be successful pure EV manufacturers.

You just keep taking nonsense. People are quite happy with offerings like the Model 3 and the Bolt. Now the question is whether they get the production ramped up, or we have to wait for other makers to do so.

It will be multiple decades before existing manufacturers need to be pure EV manufacturers, so they have plenty of time to learn and shift. Meanwhile, the BEV support infrastructure rolls out, matures, and improves.

If people need to drive more fuel efficient cars, they'll just deal with it. If fuel is expensive enough, they can also drive less miles.

As usual your cherry picking doomer mantra isn't at all convincing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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