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Deluge Thread 2018

Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 09:44:21

Yeah, that situation on the lower Mississippi hasn't gotten much press. Thanks for staying on top of it. Meanwhile: https://watchers.news/2018/03/18/widesp ... s-injured/

Widespread floods hit Kenya, at least 19 killed and scores injured

Also, I wasn't aware just how much of NYC was prone to flooding in the event of a hurricane:

Half of New York City is now designated a hurricane evacuation zone.

https://twitter.com/cityatlas/status/974794493806424069

...The history of the city is partly to blame; much of the expansion was into former wetlands, or landfill dumped into the harbor & then built on. Perimeter of Lower Manhattan was thus made wider than the natural island.

... the stat is 147 square miles, which is approximately half of NYC's land area. Here's is the Office of Emergency Management map; the colored areas are the evac zones. http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/p ... nglish.pdf


https://twitter.com/cityatlas/status/974837481014267904
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Re: deluge thread 2018

Unread postby diemos » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 12:45:58

ROCKMAN wrote:None of which proves the majority of the weather models are wrong. But being in the majority also doesn't prove they are correct either, does it?


In the end reality is correct, a model is just your best estimate for what that reality is.

Thus the famous saying, "All models are wrong but some are useful."

And my obscure saying, "Truth is not a democracy and it is not a popularity contest. Something is true if it is true, regardless of how many people do or don't believe in it." Something which fundamentally goes against the nature of human beings as herd thinkers.
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 14:35:05

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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 15:06:43

Fresh news on the Mississippi front, the river is not receding as previously predicted and even more bays of the floodway have been opened by the army Corp of Engineers. There is a video in the article linked below the quote that would not play for me, but the brief glimpse at the beginning before it crashed of Lake Pontchartrain showing sediment was interesting. My internet is the end of the line and not very fast so when I am forced t watch a video in high definition it frequently crashes.

Army Corps opens more bays on Spillway, lake filling up with river water; Fresh water from the river is now flowing at a rate of about 192-thousand cubic feet per second through the Spillway into brackish Lake Pontchartrain.

The Mississippi River in New Orleans hit flood stage, 17 feet, at the Carrollton Gauge, Monday morning.

The Army Corps of Engineers opened additional sections of the Bonnet Carre Spillway in an attempt to keep the level at or below flood stage downriver. So far, 183 of the 350 bays on the mile-wide Spillway are open.

Fresh water from the river is now flowing at a rate of about 192-thousand cubic feet per second through the Spillway into brackish Lake Pontchartrain.

Stephen Dematteo ran his crab traps on Monday. He says the cold and dirty river water is pushing crabs out of the lake.

"It definitely dropped off right when they opened (the Spillway)," Dematteo said. "We're hoping that they close it within the next week or so."

Dematteo arrived at the dock in Kenner's Laketown with only two boxes of crabs.

"Normally, we'll catch anywhere from seven to 10 pans on a decent day," Dematteo said.

Slidell-based charter captain Mike Gallo says there are still fish to be caught in the lake, if you know where to look.

"It will be dirty on the south shore first," Gallo said. "There will be pockets of clean water along the north shore. It will confine those fish for a short time and then they'll move east as the dirty water moves east, also."

Coastal scientist John Lopez from the Lake Pontchartrain Basin Foundation is monitoring effects from the Spillway opening.

"So, that plume is coming out of the Spillway and then moving eastward, kind of along the Kenner, New Orleans Lakefront," Lopez said. "The river water is starting to fill up Lake Pontchartrain. It's probably only half full of river water."

As the Army Corps of Engineers opens additional sections of the Spillway, Lopez doesn't expect any long-term negative effects on the lake.

"We are monitoring the basic water quality going in there," Lopez said. "We'll be monitoring for algae blooms in the next few months."

There's some evidence a Spillway opening can actually stimulate the lake fisheries. It's something Charter Captain Gallo is expecting.

"It sort of replenishes the lake and the bait supply which all of the predators that we tend to catch feed on," Gallo said.

Fish are expected to move into Lake Borne, then the Mississippi Sound and Biloxi Marsh until the Spillway closes and Lake Pontchartrain returns to normal.


LINK
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 22:04:17

Thanks for this update, T. Meanwhile, on the West Coast:

“This is the beginning of a long duration very heavy rainfall event, with rainfall totals exceeding those that caused the mud/debris flow event Jan 9th of this year. Check out the size of the Thomas Fire, and all the other red and orange outlined burn scars.“
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/976259442131046400

NWS Los Angeles: “Rain began about 2 hours ago, and here are totals since then. It's mostly light so far, but we expect the intensity to pick up this evening and overnight. You can see the recent burn areas outlined in red, which are primary areas of concern. #CAwx #SoCal #CAstorm“
https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/statu ... 5284139008
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 05 Apr 2018, 21:54:33

The California Department of Water Resources release a statement that they may use the main spillway at Oroville

https://www.water.ca.gov/News/News-Rele ... te-April-4.

Forecasted storms expected in the Feather River basin this weekend may require using Lake Oroville’s flood control outlet spillway (also known as the main spillway) this week or next.

After last year’s spillway incident, the Department created the 2017/18 Lake Oroville Winter Operations Plan to ensure public safety in the event of major storm events. This plan triggers more aggressive outflow from Hyatt Powerplant and potential use of the main spillway should the reservoir’s elevation reach 830 feet during the month of April. The current forecasts show the potential for inflows to raise the reservoir to near the 830-foot trigger elevation by the middle of next week. Currently, the lake elevation is 794 feet.

In anticipation of the incoming weather, DWR is increasing outflows from Hyatt Powerplant. Outflows were increased from 9,500 cfs to 11,500 cfs at noon, and will be increased to 13,000 cfs at 1PM. Feather River flows are expected to increase as outflows increase. These numbers are approximations.


They are not expecting problems; this is not their emergency spillway that is earthlined. It is the one they had to repair the concrete lining...what could possibly go wrong? 8O

(Thanks to jmshelton at asif for this)
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 08 Apr 2018, 12:27:05

dohboi wrote:The California Department of Water Resources release a statement that they may use the main spillway at Oroville

https://www.water.ca.gov/News/News-Rele ... te-April-4.

Forecasted storms expected in the Feather River basin this weekend may require using Lake Oroville’s flood control outlet spillway (also known as the main spillway) this week or next.

After last year’s spillway incident, the Department created the 2017/18 Lake Oroville Winter Operations Plan to ensure public safety in the event of major storm events. This plan triggers more aggressive outflow from Hyatt Powerplant and potential use of the main spillway should the reservoir’s elevation reach 830 feet during the month of April. The current forecasts show the potential for inflows to raise the reservoir to near the 830-foot trigger elevation by the middle of next week. Currently, the lake elevation is 794 feet.

In anticipation of the incoming weather, DWR is increasing outflows from Hyatt Powerplant. Outflows were increased from 9,500 cfs to 11,500 cfs at noon, and will be increased to 13,000 cfs at 1PM. Feather River flows are expected to increase as outflows increase. These numbers are approximations.


They are not expecting problems; this is not their emergency spillway that is earthlined. It is the one they had to repair the concrete lining...what could possibly go wrong? 8O

(Thanks to jmshelton at asif for this)

So every aspect of all infrastructure that hasn't had a big problem will have a big problem the next time it is used?

Had much probability or statistics? Or just willing to constantly put the worst possible spin on things to imply doom, even if making completely nonsensical implications?

It's one thing to point out that there are serious problems with the US infrastructure which continue to grow worse as politicians and the taxpayers they elect refuse to pay for proper maintenance and upgrades. This is very stupid and short-sighted, and making an expensive problem worse.

It's quite another to claim that no repairs ever work. Has New Orleans been flooded by every storm in the area since Katrina? I don't think so. Does every repaired bridge fall the next time there is bad weather? Hardly.

But I know. You and zerohedge can make wrong predictions frequently, and pretend you're credible when almost none of them pan out. After all, all it costs is your credibility. :roll:

....

So if you don't like increasing the flow ahead of time to better manage the expected deluge, how would YOU handle the situation?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Apr 2018, 21:31:47

I think they did the right thing. But we are going to see all infrastructure ever more often stressed by ever more severe storms, drought, etc. Do you think otherwise?

(And note that I did not criticize anything...I just asked a question. Is that still allowed?)
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 23 Apr 2018, 14:12:08

U.K.

Storm Desmond: Thousands of people flooded out of homes

” Thousands of people have been flooded out of their homes or left without power after Storm Desmond wreaked havoc in parts of the UK.

In Cumbria and Lancashire more than 43,000 homes are suffering from power cuts, while an estimated 5,200 homes have been affected by flooding.

The weather has claimed two lives – in Cumbria and the Republic of Ireland.

David Cameron said the flood defences in Cumbria “were not enough” and some people might not be home for Christmas.

Storm Desmond lashed parts of Northern Ireland, north Wales, southern Scotland and especially north-west England over the weekend, and more heavy rain is expected this week.
Record-breaking amounts of rain fell in Cumbria, the worst-hit county – prompting the county to declare a major incident.

‘Absolutely horrific’
The devastation has resulted in criticism of the government after multimillion-pound defences built following floods in Cumbria in 2005 failed to keep the deluge out from people’s homes. …”

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35023558
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 00:06:51

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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby ozcad » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 20:24:46

Or just willing to constantly put the worst possible spin on things to imply doom

The alarmist's task is to warn everyone in over-the-top terms of the coming doom, damaging their credibility.
The deniers's sacred solemn duty is to ignore and resist doing anything which may increase taxation.
The result is that nothing is done until it is too late, when several times the original price is desperately spent, all of it to no avail because we delayed too long.
2 * fail => 2* lose.
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 22:26:57

oz, specify which specific claims you claim to be over the top. Sometimes reality is actually extreme, but just pointing at it and saying 'That's over the top extreme' does not stop it from being reality.
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 24 Apr 2018, 22:47:18

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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby ozcad » Wed 25 Apr 2018, 13:08:14

My apologies to all, I failed to clearly indicate irony (if that is the word). Personal stance:
I am an alarmist. I am alarmed at the way things are shaping up.
I fear the fastest way to fall off a tightrope is to not believe you are on one.
I fear that the deniers are already "winning".
I worry that nothing significant seems to be done or will or can be done in time.
Dohboi, I appreciate the restraint you showed in your query.
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 25 Apr 2018, 14:33:53

:)
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 26 Apr 2018, 21:53:07

THE OTHER BIG ONE

California’s next megaflood would be worse than eight Hurricane Katrinas

Worse than the 1906 earthquake. Worse than eight Hurricane Katrinas. Worse than every wildfire in California history, combined. The world’s first trillion-dollar natural disaster.

A wintertime megaflood in California could turn out to be the worst natural disaster in U.S. history by far, and we are making it much more likely, according to an alarming study published this week in Nature Climate Change.

The odds are good that such a flood will happen in the next 40 years, the study says. By the end of the century, it’s a near certainty. (And then another one hits, and another — three such storms are possible by 2100). By juicing the atmosphere, extreme West Coast rainstorms will happen at five times their historical rate, if humanity continues on roughly a business-as-usual path, the new research predicts. ...


https://grist.org/article/californias-n ... -katrinas/
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby kmann » Fri 27 Apr 2018, 22:45:14

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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 06 May 2018, 07:57:23

https://watchers.news/2018/05/06/severe ... re-turkey/

"Severe flash flood hits Ankara, described as disaster like never before, Turkey"

Also note, for a broader perspective:

Climate Change Ignores all Borders as Rain Bombs Fall on Kauai and the Middle East Alike

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/02/ ... ent-142420
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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 10 May 2018, 17:15:40

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Re: Deluge Thread 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 25 May 2018, 18:30:28

“FIVE YEARS of rain in ONE DAY. This is not normal.”

“Mekunu is about 12 hours from a direct hit on Salalah, Oman -- a city of 200,000 people.
Sustained winds currently estimated at 115mph (185kph). About 15 inches (400mm) of total rainfall expected -- five years' worth.”

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status ... 8077046784
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