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Improving Peak Oil Credibility

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 31 Mar 2018, 17:42:21

I cannot fathom anything about your motives, SL. Your "reasoning" is unclear as well. But you are definately euphoric, so please tell us what mind-altering substance you are consuming.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 31 Mar 2018, 17:47:35

KaiserJeep wrote:I cannot fathom anything about your motives, SL. Your "reasoning" is unclear as well. But you are definately euphoric, so please tell us what mind-altering substance you are consuming.


California is BANKRUPT. The Lights are going OFF to stop Peak Oil and then The Oil Apocalypse. Thats what the Climate Change Hoax is about. We have to shut down because "we are wrecking the planet". Can't have that Peak Oil theme invading The Sheeples Pathetic Little Mind. Otherwise they go Mad Max 2.

http://euanmearns.com/energy-externalit ... /#comments

David B. Benson says:
March 30, 2018 at 6:30 am

Left Coast, i.e., West Coast of the contiguous USA, power news: A power producing company is shutting down 3 gas turbines, I assume CCGTs. That makes 5 turned off, or turning off, recently in California. Another power company is ending the planning for yet another gas turbine in California. All this is attributed to the increase in solar panels in the state.

But more. Portland General Electric, the major utility for northern Oregon, is stopping the planning to replace the Boardman coal fired generator by one or two large CCGTs. It so happens that BPA, the Bonneville Power Administration, has excess power which it can now sell to Portland General Electric; this because BPA is wheeling substantially less power to California, presumably for the same reason. Also, the Washington state utilities are buying slightly less power from BPA because the demand for power from utilities has slightly declined; I attribute this to LED lighting more than solar panels; no new wind farms are under construction or recently built in Washington state.

And yes, the GE large turbine division is certainly noticing the lack of recent orders.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 31 Mar 2018, 17:59:16

coffeeguyzz wrote:Regarding contacting personnel involved in the hydrocarbon industry ...

I have e-mailed and called dozens of times over the years to folks from the EIA and the North Dakota DMR.
Every single time the responses have been both exceptionally helpful, gracious, and enlightening.


Same here. One of the way you know folks like shorty are just intellectual frauds is that calling some of these folks and asking questions is something they will never do. If they did, they would know why their ideas look puerile compared to how well the pros have thought these issues through.

coffeeguyzz wrote:My impression is that these people welcome interactions from the public as it shows a wider interest in, and recognition of the importance, of the work they do and they are most happy to share.

The FAQ section on the EIA site can provide several hours of education across a wide spectrum of global energy related issues.


And a single call to the author of the white paper I referenced for shorty's benefit would have allowed him to refine his idea into something other than an internet joke.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 31 Mar 2018, 18:05:34

StarvingLion wrote:How can there be a Shale Gas Revolution while the stock of General Electric has been going straight to 0 since Jan. 2017?


Because you are assuming a dependency that is non-existent. You should stop because such obvious nonsense discredits every other word you type. This isn't the good ol' days of peak oil SL, where any half baked claim would generate rousing rejoinders of encouragement from the acolytes filling the church pews. Views have changed, turns out the cornies were more right than the malthusians and luddites, your religion of decay and decline was rubbed out by reality. Does this mean everything is peachy? Of course not, but at least happy McPeaksters have learned to stop using geology and petroleum engineering and resource economics as their rapture trigger, and stick to recycled ol' reliables like wars and free markets and the BDI and such.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 31 Mar 2018, 18:08:48

StarvingLion wrote:California is BANKRUPT. The Lights are going OFF to stop Peak Oil and then The Oil Apocalypse. Thats what the Climate Change Hoax is about. We have to shut down because "we are wrecking the planet". Can't have that Peak Oil theme invading The Sheeples Pathetic Little Mind.


Except...turns out peak oilers WERE the sheeple SL. You understand that the herd you mention went for it, hook line and sinker, right? :)
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 01 Apr 2018, 13:11:35

Keyword: WERE. They wised up and left the community, which is more that can be said of SL.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 01 Apr 2018, 14:33:44

I just skimmed through several pages of recent postings on this thread and found it pretty enlightening.

The overlap of ideology, politics, personal world view, economic interpretation seems to all have found a common nexus in the perception of looming, immanent hydrocarbon scarcity.

Anyone living through the 2 oil shortages in the US - as I have ('73 and '79) - recognizes full well the impacts of having to do without ... or far less, at least, than customary.

I started following a few peak oil blogs awhile back in order to learn why others still felt scarcity was not far off when everything I was seeing regarding the 'shale revolution' indicated years/decades of abundance.

It was immediately clear that most posters were very unfamiliar with the entire hydrocarbon exploration and production industry and relied upon others - mainly academics - to provide perceived substance with which to validate their views.

Close to 100% - say again, nearly ALL - the voluminous reports that I have gone over from 'peak' or anti fossil fuel sources, have had severe errors of either data or the interpretation of same.
Easy peasy to point this stuff out, particularly in David Hughes' works, but doing so to an audience not willing to be open minded of views challenging core beliefs is a waste of time.

In essence, folks, the successful implementation of drilling vertically 5 to 15 thousand feet down, then going 'sideways' 1 to 4 miles, fracturing the formation to unleash a million barrels of oil, TENS of BILLIONS of cubic feet of nat gas is being done in the US - today - dozens and dozens of times ... every day.

Newer techniques are starting to recover more of the 95%/92% of the oil regularly left behind and the 80% + of the nat gas.

The speed and precision of these efforts are expanding heretofore uneconomic zones in producing areas as well as opening up others to future development.
Argentina and China are only the first to follow Canada and the US down this path.
The UK, Australia, Columbia, Russia, Mexico are only a few lining up to move forward into unconventional development.

Final observation ... you folks may well be missing a Bigger Picture by looking at oil.

Regarding unconventionals, natgas is WAY too big a resource, WAY too cheap to produce compared to oil to expect the current 400% price premium of oil-sourced energy versus gas-sourced to long remain in its present relationship.
With $16 worth of Nat gas providing the same heat energy contained in $65 worth of oil, the innovators will come up with a way (nat gas fueled transportation, especially) to capture this enormous spread.

No peak gas in North America for 100 years.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 01 Apr 2018, 15:27:18

Not that it has anything to do with PO but the increase in oil prices has Wall Street hopped up again. Working with a small pubco now (with nothing behind them) that’s trying to do a deal with a fund that will provide 100% financing for a production acquisition deal. Has to be all (or mostly) oil reserves and “proved” producing. My pubco doesn’t care much about the due diligence since they won’t anything invested and thus make some money even if the deal is crap.

And will be interesting to see how much due diligence the fund throws at it. For folks unfamiliar with how these funds work: investors pledge $X million to the fund. The fund has a fixed period of time to bring in appropriate projects if they do the investors write the checks. But if the fund expires then those pledges cancel. Which means the fund managers don’t make sh*t: they get a % commission but only f they find the right projects to cause those checks to be written. IOW some funds won’t loo too closely at the value of a deal in order to close the fund and get their commission. The word I got was that these fund managers are “desperate” for a deal…any deal. Which probably means those pledges are about to expire. Fortunately for them I have a good project to pitch. But someone might sell them a crappy deal first.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 01 Apr 2018, 17:16:08

Thanks for the info and good luck with the potential project, RM.

Most US pensions are still operating under premise of 7 to 8 1/2% annual return.
Preposterous as well as dangerous.
Makes decision makers a little more ... receptive ... to long shot efforts.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Apr 2018, 19:22:44

coffeeguyzz wrote:Thanks for the info and good luck with the potential project, RM.

Most US pensions are still operating under premise of 7 to 8 1/2% annual return.
Preposterous as well as dangerous.
Makes decision makers a little more ... receptive ... to long shot efforts.

Preposterous?? NO The fund that is paying me made 13.5% last year.
https://www.nhrs.org/about-nhrs/news/ar ... -year-2017
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby marmico » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 07:04:24

Preposterous?? NO The fund that is paying me made 13.5% last year.


Too funny. Take a 42% haircut on your monthly benefit as the plan is 58% actuarially funded.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017 ... ng-ratios/
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 09:46:50

marmico wrote:
Preposterous?? NO The fund that is paying me made 13.5% last year.


Too funny. Take a 42% haircut on your monthly benefit as the plan is 58% actuarially funded.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017 ... ng-ratios/

No haircut needed and I already have drawn on it for twelve years.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby marmico » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 10:19:09

No haircut needed and I already have drawn on it for twelve years.


Idiot. Get a side gig logging your inherited acreage or running a sugar shack, bozo. You have been f**king the then 23 year old and now 35 year old millennial contributor to the plan for the last 12 years, moron.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 10:48:00

vt - Of course. Despite the recent decline look at the market increase the first year of our new POTUS. Every well balanced fund should have had similar gains. But the gain during 2018 might prove different. Time will tell.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 12:35:21

General Electric is once again experiencing The Shale "Revolution" as its stock is down 2% today making new lows. Its totally bankrupt.

Did I mention that Schlumberger stock has nosedived from 85 to 64 since Jan 2017? Its doing a massive nosedive at the same time as GE. What a coincidence.

I guess they never got the memo that electricity is free now.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 12:43:18

Its a good thing that "Renewables" Scam is curing The Peak Oil disease. What has "Renewables" accomplished in the past 20 years?

Answer: Nothing.

Got RPG?

Image
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 15:53:15

StarvingLion wrote:General Electric is once again experiencing The Shale "Revolution" as its stock is down 2% today making new lows. Its totally bankrupt.

Did I mention that Schlumberger stock has nosedived from 85 to 64 since Jan 2017? Its doing a massive nosedive at the same time as GE. What a coincidence.

I guess they never got the memo that electricity is free now.

Still cherry picking? Well, given the credibility of the rest of your posts here, why not? :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 17:21:40

I see Outcast, no answer to the post by SL about the pathetic progress of Renewable energy. Cherry picking works both ways you know.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 03 Apr 2018, 20:50:17

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:General Electric is once again experiencing The Shale "Revolution" as its stock is down 2% today making new lows. Its totally bankrupt.

Did I mention that Schlumberger stock has nosedived from 85 to 64 since Jan 2017? Its doing a massive nosedive at the same time as GE. What a coincidence.

I guess they never got the memo that electricity is free now.

Still cherry picking? Well, given the credibility of the rest of your posts here, why not? :roll:


I'll let someone else describe the stupidity of Junkables:

http://euanmearns.com/germanys-energiew ... /#comments

Phillip Bratby says:
April 3, 2018 at 8:26 am

How could anybody possibly be so stupid as to install 93.9GW total capacity of solar with a capacity factor of only 10.6% and onshore wind with a capacity factor of only 19.6%? There is no need to answer the question, as we all know the answer. How can a country renowned for its engineering be so stupid?
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 04 Apr 2018, 13:59:37

TOTAL COLLAPSE UPDATE:

America cannot keep the lights on. BANKRUPT. Ghung will soon be jumping into his spider hole.

Here is just one comment: " The future of electric power security in New England is bleak. "

https://atomicinsights.com/is-americas- ... /#comments

Operators of a number of several large power plants with the ability to produce electricity night and day, wind or calm, pipeline or no pipeline, declared that they are planning to retire those plants. The companies making the announcements will either jump on the bandwagon trend of producing electricity using more fragile sources that depend on the weather or the hour by hour whim of the speculative fuel market or they will exit the business altogether.

Though I might have missed or overlooked a few important announcements, here are the ones that were the proximate stimulant for this post.

First Energy’s announced plan to retire its Ohio and Pennsylvania nuclear plants
Exelon’s announcement that it plans to retire the Mystic Generating Station
First Energy’s bankruptcy filing and the implication that it will affect its other plants
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