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PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 22:44:33

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:Mexico ....has had 2, perhaps 3, prior peak oils (if memory serves). So might this new one be #3 or #4? Could be.....


What multiple peaks are you babbling about?


1982, 1997, 2004.

All since 1965. I wonder, are all posters on peak oil forums so ignorant of all the peaks that came beofre whatever their current favorite claim is? Puts you in good company (peak oil wise anyway), how many times did Colin declare peak, like 3 or 4?

Thanks for proving my point with the graph. Next time check the data before feigning ignorance on past mexican peaks. This isn't HARD Plant, you just need to see what is right in front of you. How is your eyesight? Are you in need of a checkup?
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Dec 2017, 23:36:30

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:What multiple peaks are you babbling about?


1982, 1997, 2004.

All since 1965.


You don't understand what the word "peak" means and you don't understand what a "peak" in oil production is.

I suggest you look up the meaning of the word "peak" and then look again at the data on Mexican oil production. Oh heck....I'll copy the definition for you at the bottom of this post. Read it please.

Now look at the facts---the 2004 rate of Mexican oil production was far higher then it was in 1982 or 1997.

That means that neither 1982 or 1997 were the "peak" of oil production in Mexico.

Get it now?

Cheers!

peak
pēk

verb
verb: peak; 3rd person present: peaks; past tense: peaked; past participle: peaked; gerund or present participle: peaking
1.
reach a highest point, either of a specified value or at a specified time.
"its popularity peaked in the 1940s"
synonyms: reach its height, climax, reach a climax, come to a head
"conservative support has peaked"
adjective

adjective: peak
1.
greatest; maximum.
"he did not expect to be anywhere near peak fitness until Christmas"
synonyms: maximum, top, greatest, highest; More



Get it now?
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby spike » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 07:50:24

Plant, the point is that many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 14:03:40

spike wrote:Plant, the point is that many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.


Plant knows this Mike, Plant has been trolling everyone he can find as of late. Did you know that Pioneer discovered resource play production in the Midland Basin? According to Plant. The production from same beginning 4 decades before Pioneer became a company not withstanding. That was one of Plant's trolling attempts...so take anything as of late with a grain of salt. After hooking the victim who noticed the nonsense, the next routine is that Plant immediately changes the subject and pretends the topic is something else. And sometimes that is yet another trolling routine.
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 14:07:37

pstarr wrote:
spike wrote:Plant, the point is that many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.

Mexico will never exceed its 2004 oil production peak.
I guarantee it.


Heard that one before. For the globe, remember? Back when that peak oil happened? And the US? That one you wouldn't even take a bet on, you so believe what you write. NOT.

Isn't there a forum better suited to your skill sets, some place where people can lounge around, lying to each other, and the forum rules require you to believe whatever nonsense the other folks say? Everyone required to nod vigorously when you said something along the lines of your usual stupid? You would fit right in there, maybe be much happier.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 14:08:48

pstarr wrote:
spike wrote:Plant, the point is that many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.

Mexico will never exceed its 2004 oil production peak.
Image
I guarantee it.


With your track record I don’t consider your gauntee worth a heck of a lot.

After all America peaked in 1970 and came darn close to natching hat peak in 2015. Mexico is on the same continent and shares some of the richest shale oil formations that exist in Texas and New Mexico. The only thing stopping them is internal political corruption.
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 15:04:44

spike wrote:....many peak oilers have claimed that a peak is irreversible, so if oil production declines, you don't know that there will be a higher peak later, instead you extrapolate the decline to the terminal point. This doesn't work if you have multiple points where oil peaks and begins to decline. Thus, the latest peak cannot be guaranteed to be the ultimate peak.


Every peak isn't "the ultimate peak."

Peak Oil occurs when the maximum level of oil production is reached.

Get it now?

Cheers!
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 15:06:51

AdamB wrote: Did you know that Pioneer discovered resource play production in the Midland Basin? According to Plant.


Actually, I didn't say that.

But you go right on trolling.

Cheers!
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 15:24:56

Mexico shale is not in the right place. There isn't the necessary water or infrastructure to produce it. Dream on speculators.


Once again demonstrating your ignorance. The Eagle Ford extension into Mexico covers the Burgos and Sabinas basins where there has been oil and gas activities for nearly 80 years. There are over 3500 producing wells in the Burgos basin. There are roads everywhere, pipelines, refineries all within easy reach. Given that the shale is the source rock for a lot of the conventional oil and gas being produced in the region it shouldn't be surprising all of the necessary infrastructure is already in place.

Pemex has been actively drilling to prove up shale gas reserves in the area since 2011. Last year there were two bid rounds where a number of Mexican, Canadian and US companies obtained licenses to pursue shale gas in the area. Mexico is focussing on gas in the region due to their lack of stable power source throughout much of the country and the fact they are a net importer of gas from the US.
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 16 Dec 2017, 16:45:48

What makes him think this is different than Vaca in Argentina or the Bowland Basin in England is beyond me.


The Vaca Muerta is currently producing ~80,000 boe/d which will grow to 120,000 boe/d next year. Bowland basin is just starting out.

You were probably one of the people claiming back in 2006 that shale gas and oil would never be produced in the US.

As to water availability, the situation is different in each of the potential shale basins in Mexico but the break throughs that have been made in full water recycling from fracks has resulted in much less water usage. Besides that the Burgos basin sits right along the coast line with the Gulf of Mexico. There is no reason why sea water can't be used as a frack fluid, the salinity is similar to produced waters in TX. and if there is any incompatibility between untreated sea water and the formation then there is almost certainly a solution.
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Re: PEMEX Mexican Oil Thread

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 17 Dec 2017, 00:06:56

...the Burgos basin sits right along the coast line with the Gulf of Mexico. There is no reason why sea water can't be used as a frack fluid, the salinity is similar to produced waters in TX. and if there is any incompatibility between untreated sea water and the formation then there is almost certainly a solution.


Could be.

I'm sure the Mexicans hope they get it figured out soon---Mexico's oil production from the rest of Mexico is going down every year.

Cheers!
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Mexico’s Oil Reserves Drop Again Despite Recent Discoveries

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 28 Mar 2018, 21:37:34


Mexico’s proven oil and gas reserves dropped again last year, after new certified discoveries—mostly by private foreign operators—were unable to keep pace with current production. According to data by Mexico’s National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH), the country’s proved total oil and gas reserves were 8.484 billion barrels of oil equivalent as of January 1, 2018, which was a drop of more than 7 percent compared to the January 2017 reserves update. As of January 1, 2017, Mexico’s proved oil and gas reserves were estimated at 9.16 billion barrels of oil equivalent, down by 10.6 percent from the 10.243 billion boe as of the beginning of 2016. Proved oil reserves were down 7.9 percent to 7.037 billion barrels from 7.641 billion barrels estimated as of 2016. At the beginning of this year, oil reserves were 6.464 billion barrels, CNH data showed. The silver lining in the


Mexico’s Oil Reserves Drop Again Despite Recent Discoveries
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 18 Apr 2018, 10:11:42

Mexico’s energy industry strategy will be overhauled if the frontrunner for the next presidential term, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, wins the July election, his senior energy adviser said in an interview with Reuters.

Rocio Nahle, who is the most likely Energy Minister of the future cabinet if Obrador wins, also said that the leftist candidate is not against foreign energy investment in Mexico. Even so, the contracts signed with international oil companies by the current government will be scrupulously reviewed.

What Obrador seems to be opposed to is sending crude oil abroad. In fact, the Obrador government would try to put an end to all crude oil exports within three years of coming into office, focusing instead on refined products.

“In a three-year period, at the latest, we need to try to consume our own fuels and not depend on foreign gasoline,” Nahle said. This would be bad for U.S. refiners, who export the biggest portion of their production to Mexico. In the last few years, Reuters notes, Mexican imports of gasoline and diesel have risen to more than 800,000 bpd, representing over 66 percent of domestic demand.

This could be the reason why Obrador’s team is seeking to change the focus of the Mexican energy industry to achieve greater self-sufficiency in the fuel department. Yet exports are also a priority. Now, Pemex exports most of its crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, but also some to Asia and Europe. Last year, the average daily export rate was 1.17 million bpd.

Fuel exports would be more lucrative, Nahle says, so the likely future government of Mexico is devising plans to expand the processing capacity of Pemex’s six refineries and build one or two more, to add between 300,000 bpd and 600,000 bpd to the existing refining capacity of the country, which is 1.6 million bpd of crude.


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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 19 Apr 2018, 12:30:35

T - Yes: Mexico could expand its refinery infrastructure. All it need do is overcome whatever the resistance has been to do so that has prevented it for more then the 20+ years it was obvious it needed to do just that. IOW this wasn't just an need that wasn't known for many years. In fact, PEMEX has been complaining about the govt stripping it of such capex for a very long time. Revenue that was being used to support the country's social support. As well as a tad directed to those few families that have significant influence over the govt.

So if the govt does allow PEMEX more capex there's one big question: who will lose that revenue on the other side of the ledger? Monies lost for many years as upgrades are built before the addition of monies from reducing imports as well as exporting products show up. And yes: it would have been much easier to do when Mexico was a big NET exporter of energy.

BTW the talk is about oil. In the meantime Mexico is importing ever increasing amounts of NG from the US.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 19 Apr 2018, 15:13:38

ROCKMAN wrote:T - Yes: Mexico could expand its refinery infrastructure. All it need do is overcome whatever the resistance has been to do so that has prevented it for more then the 20+ years it was obvious it needed to do just that. IOW this wasn't just an need that wasn't known for many years. In fact, PEMEX has been complaining about the govt stripping it of such capex for a very long time. Revenue that was being used to support the country's social support. As well as a tad directed to those few families that have significant influence over the govt.

So if the govt does allow PEMEX more capex there's one big question: who will lose that revenue on the other side of the ledger? Monies lost for many years as upgrades are built before the addition of monies from reducing imports as well as exporting products show up. And yes: it would have been much easier to do when Mexico was a big NET exporter of energy.

BTW the talk is about oil. In the meantime Mexico is importing ever increasing amounts of NG from the US.


Besides money, who can build a 1 million BPD refinery in 3 years? Total socialist propaganda to dupe the incurious at the polls.

In fact, the Obrador government would try to put an end to all crude oil exports within three years of coming into office, focusing instead on refined products.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 19 Apr 2018, 18:51:48

Not only have capital expenditures been gimped, the workforce is bloated. Mexican refineries have 3x the workforce as US refiners. Not to mention fuel theft being a problem. Pemex's refining business is losing money. So they try to bring in foreign partners to fork over the money for the refinery upgrades. But the potential partners don't want to put in big bucks into a business that will lose money. Then there's the political risk that any investments might get renegotiated later to the detriment of the partners. Looks like Mexico finally found a partner for its Tula refinery upgrade. Looks to be a long short short of Obrador’s goals however. It doesn't seem like Obrador’s policy of squeezing the foreign partners for every drop of blood is conducive to his goal of increasing domestic oil refining.
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Re: An Update On Mexico’s Net Oil Exports

Unread postby Darian S » Sat 21 Apr 2018, 00:32:21

So long as they can't go full venezuela things are ok. If something happened to make them go full venezuela, we'd need a militarized border.
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