[onlooker]

The Fed uses higher interest rates to curb inflation so high gas prices and higher interest rates would have the net effect of curbing inflation

Precisely, which is why interest rates would be moved higher by the Fed.

[marmico]

I personally find it non productive to debate future potentialities as - being in the future - no immediate, conclusive resolution is possible.

Sure. In 2018 you align with the 100 year reserve production ratio (RPR) and I align with the 12 year RPR. As the future becomes the present the RPR will fall in between.

[AdamB]

I'll believe Lahettete when he shows his geologic work. Until then we've got the USGS on the low side, Doug Patchen and the state geologists at the high end, and the EIA and Texas BEG in the middle. I'll stick with the middle for now, and not just because my estimates are right in there ball park as well.

Since when does Aubrey McClendon's failed intern and the current PO.com office assistant get to compare bragging rights with the pros? "Your" estimate? ha ha ha

Don't make me laugh

Wasn't trying to make you laugh pete. Are you implying that people capable of doing their own estimates, should not?

[AdamB]

I'll believe Lahettete when he shows his geologic work.

Laherrere uses Hubbert Linearization for ultimate. It tends to understate same.

Hubbert Linearization is a joke, and the idea that Laherrere hasn't figured that out is terribly disappointing. You probably haven't seen it, because it was never published, but I recall one clever geoscientist testing all the oil and gas fields in the US, using Hubbert Linearization. The game was to determine the sensitivity to only 1 thing...the number of points used for the linearization. Similar to Cavallo's work with global oil back in about 2004, it demonstrated a sensitivity beyond imagination to nothing more than what points any single person choose to pick.

In other words....the results were random in nature based on personal preference. I would think Laherrere would know better.

Apparently, the EIA still breaks out Marcellus and Utica separately via DrillingInfo state data.

Of course they do. And here is another interesting tidbit...the EIA person who made the graph you reference, was a listed author on the definition you used from the DPR that says they can't do it. Hence my interest in making a phone call, to sort out a glaring inconsistency.

Eyeballing the chart, the Utica production slope is lower than the Marcellus. Laherrere and UT BEG are on the same page.

For Lahherrere to get something right, he might certainly need to mimic the Texas BEG answers to these types of questions. The difference being, the Texas BEG will give anyone a demonstration of their geologic work in their industry consortium. And Laherrere doesn't show his geologic work.

[AdamB]

There is a paucity of evidence supporting your current position that the Utica ultimate recovery is equal to or greater than the Marcellus.

Well, that depends on what you consider evidence, doesn't it? The largest resource assessment number out there right now between the Utica and Marcellus resides with the Utica, based on the work of the Utica consortium involving Doug Patchen and Mike Hohn. The USGS, based on assessments done circa 2011 or so, puts the Utica at half the size of the Marcellus (37 TCF to 84, if memory serves?).

The EIA carries reserve and resource numbers within OGSM about the same as the Texas BEG, give or take, in the 350-500 TCF range. Both are reasonable based on USGS and Texas BEG in place estimates (1200 or so, and 1700 TCF respectively).

[Yoshua]

It feels like we are at a breaking point. The oil price has been high for some time now. Twice the oil price spiked above 65 USD and both times the stock markets started to crash.

According to fx traders macro trends the dollar is about to spike any moment now. When the dollar spikes, the oil price will collapse.

The $1.3T omnibus bill will suck up dollars from the global market and with less dollars in circulation the dollar price will rise.

If this really happens then there will be riots in oil exporting nations. Will the Fed reverse its policy at that point and start QE4...or will Trump send in the military to shoot up those nations?

[onlooker]

Yes Yoshua. The stage is being set for dramatic economic events this year. Will the manipulations continue to allow the oil price to remain high. Or will the pressures finally collapse the price?

[AdamB]

It feels like we are at a breaking point. The oil price has been high for some time now.

No it hasn't. Perhaps you missed the crash that happened a few years back, the glut, oil production from the US rearranging global oil politics?

Twice the oil price spiked above 65 USD and both times the stock markets started to crash.

You mean I have the same buying opportunity after the recent "crash" like I did in March of 2009, or are you just pretending that normal market swings are crashes now because you can't find peak oils, doom, or crashes of any type recently, and are hoping some of us might fall for a projection of bravado?

According to fx traders macro trends the dollar is about to spike any moment now. When the dollar spikes, the oil price will collapse.

And as usual, the fuel using consumers will rejoice. You have a problem with happy consumers, other than it doesn't fit into the doomer world view?

[marmico]

puts the Utica at half the size of the Marcellus (37 TCF to 84, if memory serves?).

Either refresh your memory or stand on it. As of 2018, Utica < Marcellus notwithstanding coffee's entreaties to the contrary. Now in coffee's defence, CNX, which produces in both Marcellus and Utica, boosted 2017 Utica proved reserves.

http://investors.cnx.com/news-releases/ ... -114613329

[asg70]

Yes Yoshua. The stage is being set for dramatic economic events this year. Will the manipulations continue to allow the oil price to remain high. Or will the pressures finally collapse the price?

So we've gone from being willing to finally concede ETP is fundamentally flawed (see sig) to to the current oil price being a function of "manipulations"?

[Yoshua]

IF the dollar is about spike/oil is about to collapse...then NOW would be a good time to hedge your oil production. (I'm not giving any economic advice)

It is interesting to look at the organic movement of the dollar. Does it move in a wave like pattern because it's tied to petroleum and oil prices are cyclical?

Why is the long term movement in decline? Because we are ultimately moving towards the end of the oil age...somewhere in the future?

After the dollar reaches its high in December (if it does) then the direction going forward would be down again...falling dollar/rising oil prices...switching from deflation to inflation.

The dollar is the only real global currency. It looks like a very complex currency with a lot of stuff tied to it. All commodities are priced in dollars. Without the dollar global trade would not be possible at todays level. The Fed has a mandate to maintain dollar liquidity globally...a undisclosed mandate.

[AdamB]

puts the Utica at half the size of the Marcellus (37 TCF to 84, if memory serves?).

Either refresh your memory or stand on it.

If you insist.

USGS, Utica, 2012, 37.2 TCF at the mean

USGS, Marcellus, 2011, 84.1 TCF at the mean

Looks like no Alzheimers yet. You don't really think I'm as stupid as the average peak oiler that just makes this stuff up are?

As of 2018, Utica < Marcellus notwithstanding coffee's entreaties to the contrary.

I didn't say anything any different. Provided information that supports this point, if only from the USGS. Now perhaps you will consider that other folks have differing opinions, like Doug Patchen's work for the state consortium when they used the USGS method to do their own estimate. And that estimate of the Utica is higher than either the Marcellus EIA or Texas BEG estimate when compared to the Marcellus. Coffee seems to have already provided that reference, so there is no need for me to do it again.

And industry folks have said the same, at national conferences, we aren't taking about bloggers here. So while some people might think that only what you can see today matters when doing calculations of ULTIMATE recovery, others know better.

[coffeeguyzz]

... And as a follow up, Adam, that 2011 Marcellus assessment from the USGS had 1.15 Bcf as the mean EUR with 4 wells/square mile (5,000' laterals).

The 2012 Utica study pegged .6 Bcf (again, that is POINT 6) Bcf EUR.

I'll not go into how so many Appalachian Basin wells do way more than that in 30 DAYS, NOT 30 years, as the USGS assessments called for.

Observations from CNX' Marchand well from people in the neighborhood are very bullish.
Jet engine sound from flare being loudly heard 5 miles away.

XTO should have 1 Jefferson county and 1 Indiana county Deep Utica wells online in the coming months.
If CNX is correct in their DU evaluation - and 1,700 planned Deep Utica wells sure shows their optimism - hydrocarbon world is gonna be rocked.

[AdamB]

... And as a follow up, Adam, that 2011 Marcellus assessment from the USGS had 1.15 Bcf as the mean EUR with 4 wells/square mile (5,000' laterals).

Not to bust on your parade Coffee, but the USGS did no such EUR normalizing at all in that assessment, as best I can tell they haven't ever done it since about the time they began using their new methods. They might do it nowadays? Maybe..but I haven't seen the reference mentioning it yet. If you have one, I would appreciate seeing it. As far as the mean cell size for the Marcellus in 2011, that was 149 acres. Page 3, 1st paragraph.

I'll not go into how so many Appalachian Basin wells do way more than that in 30 DAYS, NOT 30 years, as the USGS assessments called for.

And I won't go into the amount of area considered inside a given assessment unit that isn't in the sweet spots where your information most likely comes from. The problem here is how to handle the geologic variability within a huge area like that. The Texas BEG operates at a very small resolution, and arguably the EIA doing EUR averages at the county area in a huge AU like that makes more sense than using a single distribution. But guessing at a distribution across an entire area obviously include more crappy area than prime area, so one of the ways you can simulate that within a big area method like theirs is to go with EURs that don't just reflect sweet spot EURs, but what the distribution looks like after the sweet spots and ram pasture have all been drilled to equal densities.

Observations from CNX' Marchand well from people in the neighborhood are very bullish.
Jet engine sound from flare being loudly heard 5 miles away.

Not hard to do with a CO2 frack in shales back in the 70's and 80's, there is a blue flame looking thing coming out of the wellhead and it was blowing chunks of shale a couple hundred feet into the sky. Easy to make noise. Me...I want sustainable reservoir volume, not just the usual effect when blowing down some casing.

XTO should have 1 Jefferson county and 1 Indiana county Deep Utica wells online in the coming months.
If CNX is correct in their DU evaluation - and 1,700 planned Deep Utica wells sure shows their optimism - hydrocarbon world is gonna be rocked.

And peak oilers will continue to flop around like fish out of water...and all because they have zero imagination when it comes to geologic potential.

[coffeeguyzz]

Adam
Correct me if I am wrong ... can't do the B!ueLetter Tango ...

Source, 17 page "USGS Information Relevant ...Marcellus ..."
Open File Report. 2011-1298

3 sub units withFoldbelt Marcellus (Appendix #1) and Western Margin Marcellus (Appendix #3) being squat.

Regarding "Interior Marcellus" (Appendix #2 ... the Big Enchilada) ...
Calculated Mean area 28,900,000 acres
Calc Mean cell. 149 acres
Recovery. 1.15 Bcf
Data found on page #2 of Appendix #2 which is accessed on page #13 of report.

Re Utica ...
"FS 12 - 3116.pdf shows on my screen for source (USGS 2012 Utica Assessment) ... Info ...
Calc Mean Production Area. 31,600,000 acres
Drainage. 150 acres
Sweet Spot percentage. 27%

EUR for Sweet Spot. .619 Bcf
EUR for non sweet spot. .128 Bcf
The above data found on page #4 of the report.

No matter how it is sliced and diced, current production is blowing way, WAY past these earlier evaluations.

[marmico]

Looks like no Alzheimers yet. You don't really think I'm as stupid as the average peak oiler that just makes this stuff up are?

There you go. Marcellus is 2x Utica, notwithstanding coffee's protestations.

Your dementia is an open bloom. Dragging up 10 year old threads to maintain an active thread count makes Tanada happy. You make (drag) stuff up ceteris paribus just like the average peak oiler.

Kindly post the number of responses to your last 50 dragged threads

[AdamB]

No matter how it is sliced and diced, current production is blowing way, WAY past these earlier evaluations.

I don't disagree. I only note that the USGS assessments give their estimate of a distribution that INCLUDES all those areas that aren't drilled because they aren't as productive as the sweet spots. By definition, the sweet spot results are contained with the higher portion of the EUR distribution, it is just that there is more area that is less productive that also is accounted with within their estimates. And those results bring down the overall average to something less.

[AdamB]

Looks like no Alzheimers yet. You don't really think I'm as stupid as the average peak oiler that just makes this stuff up are?

There you go. Marcellus is 2x Utica, notwithstanding coffee's protestations.

What do you mean, there you go? I've already provided exactly the references saying that.

And the one saying something different. And where, if you happened to be standing around during the industry presentations at the national conferences where they discuss such things, that a different perspective was being detailed.

Such perspective expressing itself in the estimates involved as demonstrated by the Doug Patchen/ State consortium / Utica study referenced by Coffee.

Understanding that there is a difference of opinion among different references isn't that difficult.

Your dementia is an open bloom. Dragging up 10 year old threads to maintain an active thread count makes Tanada happy. You make (drag) stuff up ceteris paribus just like the average peak oiler.

Kindly post the number of responses to your last 50 dragged threads

Let me know when you learn to read and more important UNDERSTAND the material provided and maybe then we'll discuss it. Better yet attend a conference where they discuss these things, learn something from the folks involved, call them and ask questions, they really do interact with the public at large, they have phone numbers and emails and everything. Treating ignorance of the nuance like some state of grace just makes you come off as one dimensional, more like a peak oil-ignorant poster than someone who wants (assuming you CAN) to understand something.

[coffeeguyzz]

Regarding contacting personnel involved in the hydrocarbon industry ...

I have e-mailed and called dozens of times over the years to folks from the EIA and the North Dakota DMR.
Every single time the responses have been both exceptionally helpful, gracious, and enlightening.
My impression is that these people welcome interactions from the public as it shows a wider interest in, and recognition of the importance, of the work they do and they are most happy to share.

The FAQ section on the EIA site can provide several hours of education across a wide spectrum of global energy related issues.

[StarvingLion]

How can there be a Shale Gas Revolution while the stock of General Electric has been going straight to 0 since Jan. 2017?

Answer: The utilities are going bankrupt. They cannot afford coal plants and they cannot afford gas turbines either. Nobody is paying the bills for the heavy lifters required to keep the lights on. Thats why GE stock is headed straight to 0

The "renewables" scam is bankrupting everything. Its worse than useless. Its a mental illness.

What are those stupid windmills except more sub-prime real estate? Its not even an energy system. Its a ruse. Cheap by decree. Revenue by legislation. Pure fraud.

The lights are going off OR the price of oil is effectively infinity.

Thats the two choices.

Pick your poison.