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THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Oil demand: Beware the gap

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 16:04:37



Peak oil demand has swiftly moved from concept to potential to symbolic talisman—and it means different things to different people. Most often, the debate centres on the year when this peak may occur. Is it 2025? 2035? And these days the discussion never fails to mention electric vehicles, which—runs the argument—will eat away at oil's market presence. But there are other significant things to worry about in the much shorter term. And for companies, this attempt to identify the year of the peak—and what will happen to the 20% or so share of the market that would be affected by transport electrification—is simply not granular enough to be of use. It also ignores what's been going on in the market. Global oil-demand growth in 2017 is likely to come in at around 1.6m barrels a day, a number well above the


Oil demand: Beware the gap
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 16:25:14

chris-h wrote:
"One of the biggest challenges will be to find the giant projects of the next decade, which will put great pressure on the search for high-quality, significant opportunities that in themselves meet the criteria of 'big," Esser and Jackson said.

After analyzing the data, Cera predicted that the capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise to 45.6 million barrels per day in 2010 from 36.8 million barrels per day in 2004.

The analysts expect non-OPEC capacity to quickly increase by the end of the decade with additions of 7.5 million barrels per day to 55.8 million barrels per day, as there are about 20 to 30 major projects coming on line every year between now and the end of the decade.

"The balance of supply over demand has the potential to expand significantly over the next five years, and this could drive oil prices to the downside," the authors found. "If demand growth averages a relatively strong 2.2% through 2010, prices could weaken from recent record highs and slip well
below $40 a barrel as 2007 to 2008 nears."



Non opec has already peaked.


Oops.

Just have to love some of these old threads. The certainty in things that aren't true...just so...RELIGIOUS..in nature.

chris_h wrote:Additions of 7.5 million barrels for non opec ?
Where ? from the moon ?


No. How about most from the US. BBWWAAAHHAAAAHHAAAA!!!!

chris_h wrote:And opec will produce 8 million more barrels ?
From where ? Saoudi Arabia production cannot produce more.
It is the usual business as usual scenario.
Pure bull$hit.


Yes. And what happened next? Not only more BAU, but more supply, glut and lower prices!!

Want to play again, under a different username, in order to avoid the embarrassment this one has caused?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Re:

Unread postby GHung » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 16:36:01

AdamB wrote:
chris-h wrote:
"One of the biggest challenges will be to find the giant projects of the next decade, which will put great pressure on the search for high-quality, significant opportunities that in themselves meet the criteria of 'big," Esser and Jackson said.

After analyzing the data, Cera predicted that the capacity of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise to 45.6 million barrels per day in 2010 from 36.8 million barrels per day in 2004.

The analysts expect non-OPEC capacity to quickly increase by the end of the decade with additions of 7.5 million barrels per day to 55.8 million barrels per day, as there are about 20 to 30 major projects coming on line every year between now and the end of the decade.

"The balance of supply over demand has the potential to expand significantly over the next five years, and this could drive oil prices to the downside," the authors found. "If demand growth averages a relatively strong 2.2% through 2010, prices could weaken from recent record highs and slip well
below $40 a barrel as 2007 to 2008 nears."



Non opec has already peaked.


Oops.

Just have to love some of these old threads. The certainty in things that aren't true...just so...RELIGIOUS..in nature.

chris_h wrote:Additions of 7.5 million barrels for non opec ?
Where ? from the moon ?


No. How about most from the US. BBWWAAAHHAAAAHHAAAA!!!!

chris_h wrote:And opec will produce 8 million more barrels ?
From where ? Saoudi Arabia production cannot produce more.
It is the usual business as usual scenario.
Pure bull$hit.


Yes. And what happened next? Not only more BAU, but more supply, glut and lower prices!!

Want to play again, under a different username, in order to avoid the embarrassment this one has caused?


Question is, why do you love rubbing peoples' noses in their failures? Where I come from, that's a character flaw. It implies that you've never been wrong about anything. People like that aren't welcome at my fire, especially ones who work as hard at it as you do.
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India Will Lead Global Oil Demand By 2035

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 00:06:02

Oil market participants and analysts have been closely watching the record level of supply coming out of the United States that is threatening to undo OPEC’s production cuts. But in the latter part of 2017 and early in 2018, robust oil demand growth — both in emerging markets and OECD economies — has supported oil prices as much as the cartel’s production restraint and the weakening U.S. dollar. Traditionally, all eyes have been fixated on China and the pace of its oil demand and imports growth, but lately India has grabbed global attention after its oil imports rose to record highs amid strong economic growth and fuel demand. Projections of India’s long-term energy and oil consumption are also optimistic, and India is already a major oil demand growth driver. In China, January crude oil imports jumped to a new record of 9.57


India Will Lead Global Oil Demand By 2035
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 23 Feb 2018, 11:11:39

From what I have observed India is about 5 years behind China on the growth curve. When you look at standard of living measured in things like number of cars per population as an indicator you see the USA/Canada/EU nations all went through a bloom phase in the early to mid 20th century and then came to a slow growth roughly paralleling population expansion once market saturation too place. The standard Sigmoid or S curve. Then if you keep looking at industrialized or industrializing nations you will see that later in the 20th century Japan experienced the same bloom in the Vietnam war era followed by South Korea later in the 20th century. China got started on the bloom phase around 2005 and is still in the rapid growth phase and India has now by appearances joined in before China has completed its build out.

Given that China alone has as many potential car owners (or washing machine owners if you prefer) as the EU and North America combined it is inevitable that demand for physical resources is at an all time high. India has about 85 percent as many potential consumers as China has so adding them as well mean that we are trying to transition from a world where 1 Billion people more or less live in a high energy lifestyle to a world where 4 Billion do the same just by adding China and India to the collection. Even then there are still around a Billion more people in Africa who want a high energy lifestyle plus half a Billion in South America and another 2 Billion in Asia outside the four countries already discussed (Japan, South Korea, China, India).

All these potential consumers need energy and they are tired of being told no. China alone last year added more new automobiles to its fleet than all of North America combined! With India now coming on strong the growth in demand of 1.5 MM/bbl/d projected for the next few years may turn out to be hopelessly optimistic when seen through the rear view mirror in 2028.
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Oil Demand Strong Into 2020

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 23:19:50

Oil demand will remain strong through at least 2020, pushing spot costs for crude above futures pricing. That’s the message from Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of commodities and derivative research. Electric vehicles won’t start biting into oil demand until at least 2020, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview Monday. Blanch expects China to push electric vehicles in its quest for cleaner fuels, but said the technology still needs three to four years to make prices comparable with internal combustion engine vehicles. China is “going to have a massive geopolitical exposure to global energy," Blanch said. "They need to wean themselves off the foreign fuel dependency problem they have." bloomberg


Oil Demand Strong Into 2020
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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India, China to fuel 50% of rise in global oil demand in 5 y

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 Mar 2018, 17:50:00


India and China are set to contribute nearly 50 per cent to the increase in the global demand for oil over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report on oil sector for 2018. According to IEA, demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd) until 2023, as the oil demand would reach 104.7 mbd, up by 6.9 mb day from 2018. “As China’s economy becomes more consumer-oriented, the rate of growth in oil demand slows down to 2023, compared with the 2010-17 period. By comparison, the pace of oil demand growth will pick up slightly in India,” it says. The report says that though there is no peak oil demand in sight, the pace of growth will slow down to 1 mb per day by 2023


India, China to fuel 50% of rise in global oil demand in 5 years
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Global oil demand in 2017 grew fastest in a decade

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 24 Mar 2018, 20:33:17


Global oil demand rose by 1.5 million barrels a day in 2017, growing at 1.6 per cent, more than twice the average annual growth rate seen in a decade, International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its report. The Paris based agency said in its Global Energy and CO2 status report 2017 that more than 60 per cent of the growth in oil demand came from Asia, with China and India being the biggest demand centres. It added that one of the main drivers of growth was the transport sector and petrochemical sector. The report said that even though electric cars are making rapid inroads, particularly in China, which is leading in global sales of electric cars the strong growth in electric-car sales remains too small to make a dent in oil demand growth. IEA reiterated that a slowdown in oil demand growth may


Global oil demand in 2017 grew fastest in a decade
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Tuike » Fri 11 Aug 2023, 10:54:45

World oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth.
Oil Market Report - August 2023 -iea

What happened to peak oil demand?
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 11 Aug 2023, 15:11:25

Tuike wrote:
World oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth.
Oil Market Report - August 2023 -iea

What happened to peak oil demand?


Oil is still way too cheap.

(1)Biden has been pumping 1-2 million bbbls of oil per day out of the US strategic petroleum reserve to force down oil prices, and (2) the sanctions put on Russia after it invaded Ukraine required it to set its oil at no more then $60/bbl....and Russian has been selling for even less then that to India and China to earn money to prosecute their dirty little war. Then India and China resell the cheap Russian oil to the west. On top of that (3) Biden broke all his promises about not allowing oil drilling on federal lands, so the US is about to hit its all-time high in domestic oil production.

These three things have boosted the supply of cheap oil on the market.

It's classic supply and demand....sell something cheap and people will buy more of it

Image
Cheap oil! Cheap oil! Cheap oil!

Make something cheaper and people will buy more of it.

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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 12 Nov 2023, 19:54:52

Tuike wrote:
with China accounting for more than 70% of growth.

What happened to peak oil demand?


Well I guess you have to ask yourself what China is doing with the oil. Is it driving with it? Making toasters and solar panels for Western markets? Or perhaps...
September 18, 2023 China Just Started Stockpiling Oil — World War 3?
China’s recent accumulation of oil reserves has captured global attention and sparked speculation about its intentions. Is China capitalizing on low oil prices, or is it preparing for a potential invasion of Taiwan?

In this article, we delve into both possibilities and their implications while providing guidance for investors navigating this uncertain terrain.
https://www.pagegoo.com/2023/09/china-j ... rld-war-3/

China hugely boosts crude stockpiling on cheap Russian oil https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-07-26/
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Pops » Sun 26 Nov 2023, 12:42:26

Thanks for the link. I've read that China and India are both sucking up the russian oil at a discount, it's why russian sanctions didn't send the brent skyward.

Dark Brandon's biggest mistake may turn out to be emptying the SPR, it is down by about half from 650 to 350 mm/bbls and he got not one bit of love for it.

Dennis over at POB regularly charts Peak Demand which he guesses will happen rapidly after 2030. This is after a Permian/US LTO peak around 2025. I'm guessing then he thinks there will be a price spike and eventually falling demand/price as EVs take over the passenger market. The price will fall and oil investment will halt.

Laherrere as usual thinks peak supply is about now.

One thing I have seen is the oil market reacts in amplified measure to whatever condition. Partly un-involved speculators, partly just the boom/bust nature. Way back when I played chart reader I guessed the market would become wobblier both in frequency and magnitude as PO closed in — and after.

Image

But back in 2018 the drop in consumption was heralded as the tipping point, but not yet. IEA, BP, etc are sticking with the ca2028 date to roll over.

The big hitch as I see it is politics. Rightward political shift worldwide in reaction to globalisation and increasing wealth inequality brings along GW denialism (let alone PO doubt). This trend back to individual narcissism, ethnonationalism and authoritarianism will kill the transition in the cradle just as surely as their draconian social cuts kill the babies the dictator's force women to bear. Think Raygun pulling Carter's collectors off the White House roof... and trump's "windmill cancer" (actually his motivation is personal, LOL—natch— they spoil the view from his golf course)

If I prayed, I would pray for an affordable EV, and voluntary mass reshoring—relocalisation—co-op-eration. Since I don't believe in fairy tales, I lean toward something less kumbia. Hope I'm surprised.
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 26 Nov 2023, 17:05:03

When I think of increasing demand I naturally tend to think in terms of car driving or truck transport, but how much of current consumption is a consequence of the rebuildable energy ramp up over the past decade? Solar panels and wind turbines don't grow on trees, though to listen to the way they media sells them you would assume so.

The Global Solar Panel Market was valued at USD 182.53 billion in 2022
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/solar-po ... ntent-card

That equates to 182 billion worth of oil coal and gas, probably coal doing the heavy lifting. China is consuming around 17 million barrels of oil a day, which is roughly 6 Billion barrels a year. At $80/bbl, that's about $500 Billion a year. In comparison, the energy consumed for the global market for solar is substantial.
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Pops » Sun 26 Nov 2023, 20:34:46

Once energy scarcity drives prices so high society decides to transition, any energy allocated to do so will only increase scarcity, drive price higher and undermine resolve.

Tom Murphy called this the energy trap.

The construction of that shiny new infrastructure requires not just money, but…energy. And that’s the very commodity in short supply. Will we really be willing to sacrifice additional energy in the short term—effectively steepening the decline—for a long-term energy plan? It’s a trap!


I said essentially the same thing in my very first post here,

Pops
That is the wild card; how long do we have to prepare before the cost of preparing is out of reach or the necessities unavailable?


Considering the demand of say facebook on the global grid I'm thinking the draw to build RE so far is negligible —so good on GW for running interference. Because of course no one even considers peak or even where the juice comes from. At best they vaguely believe the infamous "they'" will think of something, at worst that they'll be elsewhere leaving we sinners to deal.. Global energy market is $6 Trillion according to the AI I just consulted so at mose a couple of percent.

We will need to spend 10 or 20% if we start soon, more if later. (in my erudite estimation (i.e.: WAG))

This little 15 year head start at development and deployment afforded by GW & LTO is in my mind possibly the thing that helps soften the landing, for me personally I am 100% more independent than even when I had 40 acres and a mule... cattle and chickens and pigs anyway.

I could not have dreamed of a better scenario back around 2008 — well I could but it would have been dreaming. PV and Wind costs are a fraction of back then, and installs many multiples. We've done the experimenting, trial runs, false starts, and epic failures any society-scale project would expect and we aren't yet even peaked—that's a huge win, better than I expected. It's all about carbon, but I don't care, the development is what counts. I've never thought we'd boil in our skins, not enough fossils left. But I did think we could conceivably crash back to 1933, or further, over a period of energy wars and economic shocks.

Of course we'll still have those, we've just had a little time to think about it
.
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 00:25:20

Pops wrote:Once energy scarcity drives prices so high society decides to transition.....


When exactly do you think fossil fuel energy will become scarce?

There are still huge amounts of coal and NG that can be produced, and even oil is still hitting new production highs even though we're more than a decade past the supposed date when peak oil was predicted to occur. The US just hit a new all time oil production this year.

Personally I agree with the IEA that peak oil production may occur by 2030.......but there's enough coal and NG out there to last for centuries. Even if the US caps its consumption of all fossil fuels, India and China are still building large numbers of new coal-fired power plants every year which will drive coal consumption ever higher.

Image
Recently built coal-fired power plants in India and China are burning more and more and more coal......

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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 03:41:03

The planet is running out of cheap energy, spending the last big uptick on plastic bags and electric cars. In the future people assume robots will be doing all the work lol, it will be cheap labor, human labor like used in the assembling of iphones. Robots are fine for punching out metal circles and painting static targets, delivering food on level floors, but they are a 1000 years away from mimicking the nimble dexterity of humans. And humans cost nothing to produce and little to feed, that's how modern China was built BTW.

Human Juggling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RPNZ0YlGNk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWHdT1plEqI

Robots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLrz_R_T6kg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9asDO_1A27U

Boston Dynamics has done some cute things on level concrete and even outdoors but it's a stilted imitation compared to the ballet of a 100 workers on a construction site stepping over obstacles with ease while carrying tools and materials. Too many SciFi movies filling heads with dreams.
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 05:42:34

I recently saw Elon Musk state he would be satisfied with personal robots when they can thread a needle with no help.

That's a pretty high bar.

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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 06:47:13

Robots are no different than cars or trains or nuclear power stations, all these technologies pass through their initial development stage then settle into a economically viable form and very little fundamental innovation happens after that. Today's average cars are not that fundamentally different from a Model T. They could be, they could float on air cushions, they could fly! We certainly have the technology for both but we still roll over concrete and bitumen on rubber wheels because that is the economically viable level.

Look at the Japanese Shinkansen, an incredible safety record. Billions of passenger miles now and not a single accident. It's never even been late aside from earthquakes halting the trains. But it's not maglev, which it could easily be. Why? Not economically viable. The same happened with nuclear power station design, Space rocket design. Fundamentals we are talking about here, bells and whistles mean little. Elon's rockets cost just as much in energy terms to attain orbit, the chemical rocket is still a chemical rocket of 1945.

It doesn't matter if they can design a robot out of super light super strong metal so that it can fly across a beer garden and deliver your dinner, it's never going to happen because it would never be economically viable. I love watching SciFi movies, some of my all time favorites have robots in them. But I don't read the SciFi that modern engineering promulgates simply because I've watched 50 years of broken promises from that field, failed Mars colonies, failed flying cars, failed voice recognition offerings, failed autonomous vehicles for our roads. I could wait for that, like I could wait for fusion power, but neither is economically viable, obviously.

Why Americans still chat glowingly about robots and AI while the homeless and their feces is piling up in the streets and their cities are being looted by bands of impoverished youth mystifies me? Cannot we connect the dots? Successful technologies rely on either mass uptake at cheap cost (mobile phones) or they come in low volumes and at exorbitant cost that the average person can't afford (dental implants).

This is cheap and economically viable

Image

This is not!

Image

Bellabot $15,000

Image

Honda Asimo $100,000

Image

Guess which one will (is already) taking all the market share. And as they get cheaper to make they'll maintain market share. Just like gasoline powered cars and conventional trains. So don't expect to be served by a walking robot that places your meal in front of you this side of the next millennium.
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Pops » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 10:21:09

Plantagenet wrote:When exactly do you think fossil fuel energy will become scarce?

Scarcity is relative, energy is priced on the margin: the last person wanting some sets the price for everyone.
If there isn't enough to go around, the price goes up until someone can't pay.
That's the price, everyone who can't pay gets none.

The inflation adjusted average price of oil from WWII to '74 was $30 (2023 $), since 72 = $66, since 2000 closer to $80, ... Now notice the trend in per capita consumption...

Image

Scarcity pricing hit in 1974 when OPEC took advantage of our conventional peak and the era of free energy came to a halt.

There are still huge amounts of coal and NG that can be produced,


And still huge amounts of babies to be produced. US per capita oil use hit the wall in the '70s but population increase did not. Scarcity pricing constrained consumption and prompted conservation. But remember Jeavons: increased efficiency lowers relative price, which paradoxically increases overall consumption.

The US just hit a new all time oil production this year.

And your point is what?
Increasing total production hasn't led to less scarcity. In fact the price for WTI this minute is $74.64, right at the average of $74.75 for this century.
Not to mention that great gusher of LTO sells at a discount because it is worth less, a primary use is as feedstock to make plastics or exported for the same and natural gas the same.
All the while we continue to import actual fuel-grade crude. And since LTO is counted the same as middle distillate fuel weight oil, the average price of "oil" appears lower.

But to answer the question, I don't know when oil will become more scarce.


https://cdn-0.inflationdata.com/article ... 3-2023.png
https://oilprice.com/
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Re: THE Oil Demand Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 27 Nov 2023, 18:22:20

Pops wrote:
Image

Scarcity pricing hit in 1974 when OPEC took advantage of our conventional peak and the era of free energy came to a halt.


That chart explains more than all the others put together pops. I'd love to see ones for some other nations, I know there are some real tragics out there, Egypt, Greece, The UK...

Here's my favorite lol. Allowing for the different x-axis scales it's a reasonable match I'd say. Readers be aware, this chart is not US centric.
It's stuff like this that motivated me out of the city and into preparedness.

Image

From an old old peakoil site long abandoned http://www.oilempire.us/
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