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THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

The Population Bomb Has Been Defused

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 16:14:07


Some of the most spectacularly wrong predictions in history have been made by those who claim that overpopulation is going to swamp the planet. Thomas Malthus, a British economist writing in the late 1700s, is the most famous of these. Extrapolating past trends into the future, he predicted that population growth would inevitably swamp available food resources, leading to mass starvation. That didn’t happen -- we continued to develop new technologies that let us stay ahead of the reaper. In 1968, Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich wrote “The Population Bomb,” warning that unchecked population growth would lead to mass starvation in the 1970s. He was just as wrong as Malthus. Global population did surge, but food production managed to keep up. So far, the prophets of overpopulation have been defeated by technology. But human ingenuity alone can never deliver a final victory in


The Population Bomb Has Been Defused
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Re: World population grows through history

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 16:27:45

I don’t even read stuff like that. Old joke about guy jumping off Empire State Building comes to mind; he reports all good, no sudden stops yet, as he passes the 13th floor.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 11:05:07

The population bomb has been defused...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... starvation

...or not...

This has some interesting charts on declining rates of pop increase, but they don't really come up with a different conclusion than other studies...we're heading for 11 billion plus by the end of the century.

So nothing really much new, mostly a lot of Malthus- and Ehrlich-bashing.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 12:46:57

Adam linked it elsewhere. I didn’t bother to read it. To me just the title discredits the piece.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 18:44:32

Newfie wrote:Adam linked it elsewhere. I didn’t bother to read it. To me just the title discredits the piece.

+1
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Re: World population grows through history

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 18 Mar 2018, 18:56:18

Newfie wrote:I don’t even read stuff like that. Old joke about guy jumping off Empire State Building comes to mind; he reports all good, no sudden stops yet, as he passes the 13th floor.

Yep, it stands to reason that that population will be at its peak just before massive dieoff. That will be the actual defusing
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 05 Jul 2018, 07:50:52

Highlights the unsustainable nature of current human population levels
A study led by the University of Leeds has found that no country currently meets its citizens’ basic needs at a globally sustainable level of resource use.


https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/41 ... nets_means
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Jul 2018, 11:42:05

The world’s fastest-growing populations are in the Middle East and Africa. Here's why

To put this into perspective, Africa’s population is expected to double to 2 billion by 2050. By 2100 its population could easily have doubled again. If that happens, at least four billion of the world’s 11 billion people will be African.

This unprecedented growth is largely due to the fact that infant mortality rates are down significantly and life expectancy has improved. Birth rates remain high at about five children per woman.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, a combination of a rapidly increasing youth population and an influx of migrant workers has propelled countries such as Kuwait and Oman into the top 10 fastest-growing populations.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/ ... and-africa
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 14:21:16

"Birth rates remain high at about five children per woman."

That's where you have to tackle the problem. Fight to give women rights to choose how many children they have, give them some financial security and basic healthcare, and few will choose to have more than two kids.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 28 Jul 2018, 15:11:09

That's where you have to tackle the problem. Fight to give women rights to choose how many children they have, give them some financial security and basic healthcare, and few will choose to have more than two kids.

That is the way it should have been but I doubt that is in the cards now as LTG of various kinds put the world under ever more severe restraints.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 05:47:12

Here is a not wit article bemoaning the low population growth rate in the USA.

From the Washington Examiner

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 37639.html
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 06:22:49

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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 06:26:39

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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 29 Jul 2018, 07:19:51

Kiwi,

The article is bemoaning the low REPLACEMENT growth rate. However the USA is growing due to immigration. Totally ignore that fact.

So both statements are true, replacement growth near zero, immigration growth robust.

Yet another misleading bit of that story.

News in the USA sucks
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 05:07:32

@ newfie......and the sustainable population of the US ....given current consumption rates of its inhabitants and its levels of renewable resources has been estimated to be approximately 150 million ( carbon footprint network I think .....but seems to be behind a paywall now ) .

Of course the evidence suggests that the renewable resources are being damaged and depleted ...so 150 million might be optimistic
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 06:03:30

Yes. I heard an interview with the guy who invented the footprint. It was a podcast normally behind paywalls. He noted the model does not include such factors as soil depletion, so his models are quite conservative.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 07:24:54

Newfie wrote:The article is bemoaning the low REPLACEMENT growth rate. However the USA is growing due to immigration. Totally ignore that fact.

So both statements are true, replacement growth near zero, immigration growth robust.

Yet another misleading bit of that story.

News in the USA sucks
As I just mentioned in another thread, immigration is not the primary factor for the increase in the US population. Immigration accounts for less than a third of the increase in the US population. 70% of the increase in population is natural population growth. IE, having babies:

In the early 2000s, immigration accounted for roughly 40 percent of U.S. population growth, leaving 60 percent from natural increase. During the past few years, however, net international migration is estimated to have accounted for only 30 percent of the annual population growth. The decline in immigration has been linked to job losses in construction, manufacturing, and other occupations that are often filled by recent immigrants, as well as stricter enforcement of immigration laws. Net immigration levels from Mexico are estimated to have reached zero in recent years as an equal number of people entering the United States from Mexico are now returning to their home country.
What’s Driving the Decline in U.S. Population Growth?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 10:52:48

Kub,
Interesting study but 7 years old. I wonder what things look like now?

On the surface at least it appears to be a good source.
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 16:02:56

2013 saw both the natural population and immigration increase leading to a brief rise in the overall population growth rate. However the most recent data has all 3 indicators falling again: population growth rate, natural increase, and immigration.

Image
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Re: THE Global Population Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Jul 2018, 16:37:23

OK,
The growth rates are leveling off, that’s good.
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