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Improving Peak Oil Credibility

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 14 Mar 2018, 17:44:02

If I had a dollar for every post of his with "Ponzi scheme" in it I could pay the federal deficity...

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 12:12:12

Not that it changes the inevitability of global PO but there's always more oil to develop. From:
https://www.rigzone.com/news/offshore_u ... 2-article/

"In its latest results update on Thursday, Premier Oil revealed that the Catcher development, located offshore UK, is expected to reach an output rate of 60,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) ahead of plan.

What such reports make look foolish are claims that "there is no more oil left to find". Extremist statements on both sides of the issue does not advance public understanding.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 12:58:47

ROCKMAN wrote:Not that it changes the inevitability of global PO but there's always more oil to develop. From:
https://www.rigzone.com/news/offshore_u ... 2-article/

"In its latest results update on Thursday, Premier Oil revealed that the Catcher development, located offshore UK, is expected to reach an output rate of 60,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) ahead of plan.

What such reports make look foolish are claims that "there is no more oil left to find". Extremist statements on both sides of the issue does not advance public understanding.

What does that do to UK overall production figures considering the continuing decline in the North sea? Perhaps back to 2008 or 2009 figures. Better to find it in UK waters then off in Siberian Russia.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 21:19:08

vt - Just a small short term peak never coming close to its all time high peak. Just momentary slow down on the way to the bottom. See chart...From https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/C ... -2019.html

"UK oil production peaked in 1999. The peak was probably pushed out a couple of years because of the major production interruptions following the Piper Alpha disaster. Production declined quickly until around 2011, then the high oil price allowed more brownfield and then greenfield developments that created a third local peak in 2016. Production is declining again this year but there are several large projects due that will create another peak in 2018 or 2019 (nearly equal to the 2016 one). After that terminal decline is likely. The chart below shows C&C production split according to the year of first production of the field."
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 21:58:18

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - Just a small short term peak never coming close to its all time high peak. Just momentary slow down on the way to the bottom. See chart...From https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/C ... -2019.html

"UK oil production peaked in 1999. The peak was probably pushed out a couple of years because of the major production interruptions following the Piper Alpha disaster. Production declined quickly until around 2011, then the high oil price allowed more brownfield and then greenfield developments that created a third local peak in 2016. Production is declining again this year but there are several large projects due that will create another peak in 2018 or 2019 (nearly equal to the 2016 one). After that terminal decline is likely. The chart below shows C&C production split according to the year of first production of the field."

That is about what I thought. A nice find but no new Ghawar.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 15 Mar 2018, 23:31:53

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - Just a small short term peak never coming close to its all time high peak. Just momentary slow down on the way to the bottom. See chart...From https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/C ... -2019.html

"UK oil production peaked in 1999. The peak was probably pushed out a couple of years because of the major production interruptions following the Piper Alpha disaster. Production declined quickly until around 2011, then the high oil price allowed more brownfield and then greenfield developments that created a third local peak in 2016. Production is declining again this year but there are several large projects due that will create another peak in 2018 or 2019 (nearly equal to the 2016 one). After that terminal decline is likely. The chart below shows C&C production split according to the year of first production of the field."


It seems odd to me that you would refer to the minor and short lived up tick in production in 2016 as a 'peak', it looks a lot more like a speed bump on the decline slope. The USA subsequent 'peak' from Alaska in the 1980's was a much more significant and longer lived phenomenon that might have driven the total USA peak substantially higher if it had occurred a decade or so earlier. This UK Speed Bump (tm) on the other hand would have been hardly noticed as an addition to the actual peak in 1999-2000.

Now if the UK undergoes its own version of the Fracking Miracle and gets back up to 1999 levels of production again even for a short time that would be a genuine new peak, and even if they only get up to say 500,000/bbl/d for a few months that would be a reasonable subsequential peak reminiscent of the Alaska bump on the USA graph.
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One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 12:11:36

I wonder, if prices go back down again (due to further gluts) will we see Short reappear and claim victory for ETP?

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 13:45:30

The Shale "Revolution" occurred when the US Dollar became worthless (2008). What a coincidence. They couldn't find the "sweetspots" anytime before for some odd reason. Of course Shale was a brand new play (yuk yuk started in 1895) and of course it based based on new technology (yuk yuk 1980). I wonder why all that "genius" didn't happen until the financial collapse of 2008?

TRUTH: There are no sweetspots. Thats why the UK shale industry doesn't exist, nor Polish. Thats why GE faked its numbers. Knew that the annointed big shale scams were posting bogus numbers so they thought it would work for them too. But they are the fall guys. The Shale ponzi has to eat something to dust and its GE (currency debauchery for shale destroying the industrial base) . The gas turbines are idling because of the Wind Ponzi and nobody is paying the bills.

Scamerica cannot secure all the deep water proper conventional reservoir oil because the currency is worthless. Thats why shale "exists".

THE CURRENCY IS WORTHLESS

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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Mar 2018, 16:18:34

StarvingLion wrote:The Shale "Revolution" occurred when the US Dollar became worthless (2008). What a coincidence.


depends on how ignorant of the oil field the person is who put that year on the "shale revolution". No coincidence necessary if someone, say you, forgets about all the OTHER shale revolutions that you are ignorant of.

StarvingLion wrote:THE CURRENCY IS WORTHLESS

Image


You need to find a better chart. Yours doesn't show the increasing shale production going on right now. Do you cherry pick information SL because you know that otherwise your claims really would look foolish?

My worthless currency that I used to buy a car back in August of 2016 is still working fine, and you didn't disappear after I bet more than $10K that you were full of crap. I was right, and you were wrong. Out of curiosity, have you ever been right?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 12:43:30

BP down over 3% today. It is falling like a rock. XOM has resumed its freefall. GE hitting the $13 mark, been dropping for the past 18 years. Adam says thats normal.

Fusion bullshit going ballistic. The abiotic oil cranks are coming out of the woodwork.

Everybody is changing their name (eg. Statoil) selling themselves as JUST ANOTHER WINDMILL PEDDLER

People, this is TOTAL COLLAPSE in action.

Lets face it, The Dollar is backed by Weed, nothing else
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 12:56:46

StarvingLion wrote:BP down over 3% today. It is falling like a rock. XOM has resumed its freefall. GE hitting the $13 mark, been dropping for the past 18 years. Adam says thats normal.

And yet, I just looked, and the low quote for BP today was $38.66, or down barely over 2%. So now you're resorting to just flat out lying, or you can't do 3rd grade arithmetic?

Since when is cherry picking ONE stock like GE, indicitive of the global stock markets, or even the S&P 500 or similar broad based US index? (The S&P 500 has roughly doubled in the past 18 years, despite the down 00's decade into spring 2009).

Since when is cherry picking the action of a couple stocks for part of ONE trading day (when the stock markets are down) indicitive of ANYTHING?

People, this is TOTAL COLLAPSE in action.

Congratulations, you are making the likes of shorty seem downright sane and credible, and that really takes some wild nonsense. This is clearly "total collapse" only in your personal delusions.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 13:01:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:BP down over 3% today. It is falling like a rock. XOM has resumed its freefall. GE hitting the $13 mark, been dropping for the past 18 years. Adam says thats normal.

And yet, I just looked, and the low quote for BP today was $38.66, or down barely over 2%. So now you're resorting to just flat out lying, or you can't do 3rd grade arithmetic?

Since when is cherry picking ONE stock like GE, indicitive of the global stock markets, or even the S&P 500 or similar broad based US index? (The S&P 500 has roughly doubled in the past 18 years, despite the down 00's decade into spring 2009).

Since when is cherry picking the action of a couple stocks for part of ONE trading day (when the stock markets are down) indicitive of ANYTHING?

People, this is TOTAL COLLAPSE in action.

Congratulations, you are making the likes of shorty seem downright sane and credible, and that really takes some wild nonsense. This is clearly "total collapse" only in your personal delusions.


The Alphabet Soup Company (Google) will save you with its useless Algos.

Face it, you're toast. When the Oil Giants crater you'll you looking for the nearest building fire to jump into.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 23:57:59

The last thing anyone should do if they want to improve peak oil credibility is give StarvingLion a venue to rant.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 12:27:32

asg70 wrote:The last thing anyone should do if they want to improve peak oil credibility is give StarvingLion a venue to rant.

I don't want to give "peak oil" credibility, in terms of the fast crash doom scenario (the way most folks around here seem to frame the issue), because in the current overall world, that simply doesn't seem credible to me.

(OTOH, AGW in several decades, or (unless we do FAR more than the Paris Climate Accords to deal with it) persistent BAU growth and its implications over time -- those are problems to be seriously concerned about, IMO).

I'm much more into trying to look at actual data and moderate to long term trends and trying to, perhaps, discern a little of what is happening in the time scale of decades. That's plenty hard to do without the distraction of short term "peak oil" speculation when oil production closely follows economic growth, stays relatively affordable, and we're transitioning away from oil (to a large extent) for transportation in the coming decades anyway.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 12:44:25

T - "It seems odd to me that you would refer to the minor and short lived up tick in production in 2016 as a 'peak'". I completely agree. But they used the term "peak". Which I took as a intentional effort to mislead any reader that did not look at the details. Which is exactly why I posted those details.

And I still get a laugh when I see PO "credibility" tossed out. Of course it's credible: it's a statistical FACT. Of course any effort to predict the date of global PO is subject to a credibility debate. But as we all know oil is a finite resource. And tech improvements and higher oil prices can increase the amount of oil being produced. But neither increases the amount of oil left in Mother Earth: that value remains finite. Which confirms the FACT that at some time the daily production of oil will peak and never again reach that level.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 13:00:31

General Electric stock down 2.5% today hitting lows not seen since 2008 "Financial" Crisis. Its gone from $30 to $14 in just one year.

shares of industrial and infrastructure giant General Electric ...

Bankrupt from a worthless junk currency.

America's so broke it cannot even afford antibiotics.

The morons are running around worshipping The Solar Cell.

LOL....
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby spike » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 05:20:05

S lion I suggest you read the story about Chicken Little and the Acorns.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby marmico » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 07:01:43

Laherrere is at it again. It seems that he has teamed up with Charlie EROI Hall for some presentation. He is unbelievable. He punches out fantastic work in his late 80s.

https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/ ... 9march.pdf

The paper is a mea culpa. Good for him. US URR has increased from 220 Gbs in 2002 to 300 Gbs in 2018. But the US peak is 2018.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 12:41:45

spike wrote:S lion I suggest you read the story about Chicken Little and the Acorns.


Someone say...acorns?

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Improving Peak Oil Credibility

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 18:16:00

marmico

Actually, I think Laherrerre missed the Appalachian Basin potential in a very big way.

Going to Enno Peters' site and punching up the counties between NEPA and SWPA, one finds very productive wells that are pretty old ... aka archaic design. Just very little development due to pricing, lack of takeaway, and not able to compete with Susquehanna, Greene, et al.

However, in what I consider one of the bigger bombshells in some time in the 'shale world', CNX just announced at their March presentation plans to develop over 1,700 Deep Utica wells in both Central PA and SWPA.
The clear implications that CNX feels the Utica is comparable to the Marcellus cannot be over emphasized in its importance.
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